6 ms·

South Korea's population faces point of no return

26 points by GeoAtreides 2y ago

rosmax_1337 2y ago
Maybe someone could recommend them to take in a lot of immigrants? That's what we did in Europe.
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  You kid, but I foresee a future where stagnant countries fight over the immigrants from the last few countries that are reproducing. This is not just a problem in Korea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate Blue on the map indicates negative fertility rates. The economic systems we have will be destroyed by not having new entrants to the ponzi for the old to retire on. We will realize that expecting the economic growth forever we are used to without population growth forever is folly. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/12/the-long-term-decline-in-fertility-and-what-it-means-for-state-budgets https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-bri...
  - ok654321 2y ago
    [dead]
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Productive immigrants, not those who you would pay to go home (as Sweden is doing). Economic drag would not help the situation. Sweden to pay immigrants $34,000 for voluntary return home - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41549199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41549199 - Sep 2024 (9 comments) Sweden will offer migrants $34k to go home - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41548399 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41548399 - Sep 2024 (214 comments) Sweden to pay refugees up to 341,00 USD to return - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41541481 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41541481 - Sep 2024 (9 comments)
  - rosmax_1337 2y ago
    Right, countries will be launching blockades and wars over the invaluable contribution that for example Sub-Saharan Africans can give to a country.
  - robocat 2y ago
    In New Zealand we encourage immigration: 30% of the population was born overseas (very few refugees). Personally it feels like we are just delaying demographic problems because those immigrants also become elderly and costly in time. The main problem is that we have a serious outflow of 20-30 year olds leaving for other countries, so just encouraging more kids is not the answer here. I suspect the outflow is caused because 20-30 year olds can't get ahead financially or buy a house. They often move to Australia to earn more in a warmer clime where housing is more accessible.
- ok654321 2y ago
  [dead]
- neom 2y ago
  I'm married to a Korean and have lived in Korea for a fair amount of time. I'd say for this to work well, Korea would somehow need to change a very deeply ingrained idea that watering down Korea would be the end of Korea. There are many times over the years that have had me in situations I've thought "These people would really rather run the population to zero than make it more welcoming and hospitable for foreigners." I can never get involved in politics here, naturalize requires a strong proficiency in the Korean language, etc. Then just the inter-personal cultural aspects, it's really a lot to think about changing. This year I came to realize that it's so deeply rooted in many ways, that I think often they don't even know it's there.
  - wrp 2y ago
    I'm not as familiar Korean intellectual trends as I was in Japan, but I think there is enough similarity for a comparison to be informative. In the 1970s-80s, Japan was faced with the anticipation that they would need to accommodate massive immigration in the future to ensure their economic future. There was extensive public debate in the media and the consensus that emerged by the 1990s was against immigration. I suspect Korea will go similarly.
hooverd 2y ago
Housing being an asset class will tank births everywhere.
- robocat 2y ago
  Without enough kids, then as old people die then we get excess housing and housing asset prices tank. The counterforce is that popular/desirable locations will still have inflow. Desirable locations will be fought over to show high status and housing becomes a Veblen good in those locations.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
madihaa 2y ago
South Korea spent $200 billion over 10+ years to try to get young people to have more babies while the reasons for the low birth rate (housing costs, etc.) remain unaddressed. Sounds like something the USA would do. Hilarious. What a waste of money lol. They could have easily fixed their housing crisis and ensured a better standard of living for young people.
- missedthecue 2y ago
  People are not having kids because they don't want kids. This is a global trend, in places of all levels of housing affordability.
  - neom 2y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7XchzjMtcw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7XchzjMtcw
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Housing affordability, to a large degree, is a major issue in some specific areas. Heck, you go an hour outside of a city like Boston and real estate is priced fairly reasonably relative to typical income levels. People get a very distorted view because of SF/South Bay, Manhattan, Central London, etc. Good housing has always been a significant expense for a household. But most people actually can afford housing.
  - hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
    Exactly. While "Hell Joseon", https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Joseon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Joseon, may be one factor as to why South Korea has such a low birth rate, Finland, which famously provides great support for new parents and is a much more egalitarian society than South Korea, had its fertility rate hit an all time low in 2023 of about 1.3 (better than SK, but still way below replacement rate). Reliable birth control essentially "broke" millennia of evolution. Our evolutionary drive to have sex is as strong as it ever was, but now that drive can be fulfilled without the occasional outcome of children, which has been the case for only about the past 60 years. And children, at least in economic terms, are much more of a burden than a benefit in modern times.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
SnorkelTan 2y ago
From what I've read the discrimination women face in their careers is a huge contributor to the problem... Which was not discussed at all.
- missedthecue 2y ago
  Do countries where women have thriving careers enjoy high birth rates?
sungho_ 2y ago
It may not be a complete solution, but if they enforce remote work in both the public and private sectors and switch to a four-day workweek, the situation will be better a lot. Research shows that even doing that won't decrease productivity; in fact, it might even increase it, so there's no sacrifice involved. What do you think?
- therealdrag0 2y ago
  In America a lot of people meet their spouse at work, and I’m guessing remote work doesn’t work the same way. Not sure if the same applies in SK tho.
  - rescripting 2y ago
    Only ~10% of American heterosexual couples meet as coworkers. This data is from 2021, so it’s probably lower now. https://web.stanford.edu/~mrosenfe/Rosenfeld_how_hetero_couples_met_through2021v4.JPG https://web.stanford.edu/~mrosenfe/Rosenfeld_how_hetero_coup...
    - therealdrag0 2y ago
      Times a changing I guess! I swear I remember it being around 30% which doesn’t show on your chart but that doesn’t change the narrative. Online dominating.
  - therealdrag0 2y ago
    (Deleted)
djaouen 2y ago
Good. Maybe the rest of the world can follow suit and we can finally see the extinction of the Human species!
- therealdrag0 2y ago
  We don’t need extinction, but we could use a reduction in dominating the earth and extinct-ing other animals.
lif 2y ago
"point of no return" oh come on! probably taking this way too seriously given the source (news|that's so|week) however, despite what self-declared apex predators donning sheep's clothing would have you believe: fewer now != never more again
GeoAtreides 2y ago
related: Germany joins EU’s ‘ultra-low’ fertility club https://www.ft.com/content/1b139d1a-07ea-4612-9c2b-62c430119613 https://www.ft.com/content/1b139d1a-07ea-4612-9c2b-62c430119...
johnea 2y ago
"No return" to what? This whole "demographic panic" is a contrived excuse for how the world's richest people really need much much more. How could South Korea possibly support an aging population when the chaebols and other major equity holders really need much more of the country's economic product, not less...
hackeraccount 2y ago
Stein's Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Eventually S.K. population is going to find a level.

26 points by GeoAtreides 2y ago

rosmax_1337 2y ago

Maybe someone could recommend them to take in a lot of immigrants? That's what we did in Europe.

Mistletoe 2y ago
You kid, but I foresee a future where stagnant countries fight over the immigrants from the last few countries that are reproducing. This is not just a problem in Korea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate Blue on the map indicates negative fertility rates. The economic systems we have will be destroyed by not having new entrants to the ponzi for the old to retire on. We will realize that expecting the economic growth forever we are used to without population growth forever is folly. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2022/12/the-long-term-decline-in-fertility-and-what-it-means-for-state-budgets https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-bri...
- ok654321 2y ago
  [dead]
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Productive immigrants, not those who you would pay to go home (as Sweden is doing). Economic drag would not help the situation. Sweden to pay immigrants $34,000 for voluntary return home - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41549199 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41549199 - Sep 2024 (9 comments) Sweden will offer migrants $34k to go home - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41548399 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41548399 - Sep 2024 (214 comments) Sweden to pay refugees up to 341,00 USD to return - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41541481 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41541481 - Sep 2024 (9 comments)
- rosmax_1337 2y ago
  Right, countries will be launching blockades and wars over the invaluable contribution that for example Sub-Saharan Africans can give to a country.
- robocat 2y ago
  In New Zealand we encourage immigration: 30% of the population was born overseas (very few refugees). Personally it feels like we are just delaying demographic problems because those immigrants also become elderly and costly in time. The main problem is that we have a serious outflow of 20-30 year olds leaving for other countries, so just encouraging more kids is not the answer here. I suspect the outflow is caused because 20-30 year olds can't get ahead financially or buy a house. They often move to Australia to earn more in a warmer clime where housing is more accessible.
ok654321 2y ago
[dead]
neom 2y ago
I'm married to a Korean and have lived in Korea for a fair amount of time. I'd say for this to work well, Korea would somehow need to change a very deeply ingrained idea that watering down Korea would be the end of Korea. There are many times over the years that have had me in situations I've thought "These people would really rather run the population to zero than make it more welcoming and hospitable for foreigners." I can never get involved in politics here, naturalize requires a strong proficiency in the Korean language, etc. Then just the inter-personal cultural aspects, it's really a lot to think about changing. This year I came to realize that it's so deeply rooted in many ways, that I think often they don't even know it's there.
- wrp 2y ago
  I'm not as familiar Korean intellectual trends as I was in Japan, but I think there is enough similarity for a comparison to be informative. In the 1970s-80s, Japan was faced with the anticipation that they would need to accommodate massive immigration in the future to ensure their economic future. There was extensive public debate in the media and the consensus that emerged by the 1990s was against immigration. I suspect Korea will go similarly.

hooverd 2y ago

Housing being an asset class will tank births everywhere.

robocat 2y ago
Without enough kids, then as old people die then we get excess housing and housing asset prices tank. The counterforce is that popular/desirable locations will still have inflow. Desirable locations will be fought over to show high status and housing becomes a Veblen good in those locations.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

madihaa 2y ago

South Korea spent $200 billion over 10+ years to try to get young people to have more babies while the reasons for the low birth rate (housing costs, etc.) remain unaddressed. Sounds like something the USA would do. Hilarious. What a waste of money lol. They could have easily fixed their housing crisis and ensured a better standard of living for young people.

missedthecue 2y ago
People are not having kids because they don't want kids. This is a global trend, in places of all levels of housing affordability.
- neom 2y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7XchzjMtcw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7XchzjMtcw
- ghaff 2y ago
  Housing affordability, to a large degree, is a major issue in some specific areas. Heck, you go an hour outside of a city like Boston and real estate is priced fairly reasonably relative to typical income levels. People get a very distorted view because of SF/South Bay, Manhattan, Central London, etc. Good housing has always been a significant expense for a household. But most people actually can afford housing.
- hn_throwaway_99 2y ago
  Exactly. While "Hell Joseon", https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Joseon https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Joseon, may be one factor as to why South Korea has such a low birth rate, Finland, which famously provides great support for new parents and is a much more egalitarian society than South Korea, had its fertility rate hit an all time low in 2023 of about 1.3 (better than SK, but still way below replacement rate). Reliable birth control essentially "broke" millennia of evolution. Our evolutionary drive to have sex is as strong as it ever was, but now that drive can be fulfilled without the occasional outcome of children, which has been the case for only about the past 60 years. And children, at least in economic terms, are much more of a burden than a benefit in modern times.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

SnorkelTan 2y ago

From what I've read the discrimination women face in their careers is a huge contributor to the problem... Which was not discussed at all.

missedthecue 2y ago
Do countries where women have thriving careers enjoy high birth rates?

sungho_ 2y ago

It may not be a complete solution, but if they enforce remote work in both the public and private sectors and switch to a four-day workweek, the situation will be better a lot. Research shows that even doing that won't decrease productivity; in fact, it might even increase it, so there's no sacrifice involved. What do you think?

therealdrag0 2y ago
In America a lot of people meet their spouse at work, and I’m guessing remote work doesn’t work the same way. Not sure if the same applies in SK tho.
- rescripting 2y ago
  Only ~10% of American heterosexual couples meet as coworkers. This data is from 2021, so it’s probably lower now. https://web.stanford.edu/~mrosenfe/Rosenfeld_how_hetero_couples_met_through2021v4.JPG https://web.stanford.edu/~mrosenfe/Rosenfeld_how_hetero_coup...
  - therealdrag0 2y ago
    Times a changing I guess! I swear I remember it being around 30% which doesn’t show on your chart but that doesn’t change the narrative. Online dominating.
- therealdrag0 2y ago
  (Deleted)

djaouen 2y ago

Good. Maybe the rest of the world can follow suit and we can finally see the extinction of the Human species!

therealdrag0 2y ago
We don’t need extinction, but we could use a reduction in dominating the earth and extinct-ing other animals.

lif 2y ago

"point of no return" oh come on! probably taking this way too seriously given the source (news|that's so|week) however, despite what self-declared apex predators donning sheep's clothing would have you believe: fewer now != never more again

GeoAtreides 2y ago

related: Germany joins EU’s ‘ultra-low’ fertility club https://www.ft.com/content/1b139d1a-07ea-4612-9c2b-62c430119613 https://www.ft.com/content/1b139d1a-07ea-4612-9c2b-62c430119...

johnea 2y ago

"No return" to what? This whole "demographic panic" is a contrived excuse for how the world's richest people really need much much more. How could South Korea possibly support an aging population when the chaebols and other major equity holders really need much more of the country's economic product, not less...

hackeraccount 2y ago

Stein's Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Eventually S.K. population is going to find a level.