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Definitely interested to see how the MicroStrategy share price pans out as the 2025 bull run comes to a close. Lots of water yet to go under the bridge though.

7thpower 2y ago
The bull run is over? What if it doubles in 2025?
- pavlov 2y ago
  MicroStrategy seems heavily leveraged, which creates extra risk on the downside. If the underlying asset doubles, MicroStrategy roughly doubles. But if the underlying asset goes down by 50%, MicroStrategy is stuck paying interest on loans it took to buy an asset that’s now heavily underwater. It can suffer much worse than 50% in that scenario.
  - jstanley 2y ago
    What kind of leverage creates risk on the downside without benefit on the upside?
    - pavlov 2y ago
      MicroStrategy’s stock price seems to roughly parallel the price of Bitcoin during this bull market. They are not a simple leveraged Bitcoin fund, but something more complicated where the founder’s personality plays a big role. So I guess the market doesn’t quite know how to value this admittedly unique approach, and it defaults to just following Bitcoin on the upside. Who knows what happens if there’s a crash.
      - 627467 2y ago
        > something more complicated where the founder's personality plays a big role Not to pretend that other leveraged funds founder's are equally known as saylor, but how do all other funds differentiate themselves? Is it the same to through money at one vs another?
        pavlov 2y ago
        MicroStrategy is publicly listed, which is kind of special. I don’t think there’s a lot of celebrity investor hedge funds that are public. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is listed in London and trades at a substantial discount to net asset value (something like 30%). Maybe that’s an indication that markets find it hard to value these vehicles.
  - Uw7yTcf36gTc 2y ago
    The loans are 0% interest.
  - latchkey 2y ago
    > MicroStrategy seems heavily leveraged "seems"! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R87vco0jHvo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R87vco0jHvo
- hlynurd 2y ago
  "what if it does next year" is a near-complete summary of the thought process of crypto buyers
  - BLKNSLVR 2y ago
    Please do some research. Yes, there are lots of degenerate gamblers, grifters, and scammers in the crypto scene, but any new platform that's in any way related to finance will attract that scum. If you spend a little while attempting to understand Bitcoin's reason for existence, it may start to make some sense. You don't have to buy in, but you will be able to provide a more educated contribution to the discussion.
- baq 2y ago
  Smart money wins both ways. Saylor will get zeroed eventually, but when that happens is anyone’s guess.
- BLKNSLVR 2y ago
  To clarify: I wasn't saying the bull run is over, I'm saying it'll likely end some time in 2025, likely late in 2025, if history rhymes. That's what I meant about plenty of water to yet pass under the bridge. Like you said Bitcoin could still double from here.
rswail 2y ago
The new US government has crypto-bros at its core and there will be use of the US Treasury to set up a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" that will be a way for the crypto-bros to milk the US economy to bail themselves out of the market before it dies. Bitcoins are the most useless "asset" that there has ever been. At least beanie babies had some entertainment value and tulips look pretty. Bitcoins and all the other nonsense contribute nothing to the world's real economy, it's entirely a mechanism for washing or moving fiat currency from one place to another. It is used extensively in Asia entirely for that purpose, paying for drugs and gambling transfers. For the actual economy it is useless and the entire "market" is just barely regulated gambling and entertainment.
- panarky 2y ago
  It's hard to take seriously an argument that recycles the tired trifecta of tropes "tulips, beanie babies and drug dealers". I don't know if bitcoin will eventually become a low level store of value, or if the red hats now running US government will use it to reduce the nation's indebtedness, or if it will gradually fade away as people lose interest, or if it will crash and burn over a weekend. But I am quite certain that the current system of government currencies, sanctions, repression and surveillance is unsustainable in the long run. One look at the stupendously large debt that can never be repaid should make it obvious that the current state cannot continue forever. Nobody knows how long the long run is, but the fiat system has been flashing signals of stress and potential fracture for at least twenty years. Maybe governments and central banks can keep papering over its fault lines for another decade. But when a thing cannot continue forever, at some point it will stop. Is bitcoin the replacement for the base layer? Or is it at least a way to preserve some wealth, outside the increasingly rickety nation-state-fiat system? Some mainstream finance leaders who manage trillions and are far smarter and better connected that I am, seem to think so. I don't know, and you don't know, but there's more than enough evidence that there's something real here. It can't be easily dismissed as just beanie babies, tulips and drug dealers.
  - paulryanrogers 2y ago
    When states fail crypto isn't much of a safe harbor. It's just a fiat with crazy interchange fees, except one with a public ledger. Also mining will come to an end soon as it becomes impossible to meet the energy demand.

7thpower 2y ago

The bull run is over? What if it doubles in 2025?

pavlov 2y ago
MicroStrategy seems heavily leveraged, which creates extra risk on the downside. If the underlying asset doubles, MicroStrategy roughly doubles. But if the underlying asset goes down by 50%, MicroStrategy is stuck paying interest on loans it took to buy an asset that’s now heavily underwater. It can suffer much worse than 50% in that scenario.
- jstanley 2y ago
  What kind of leverage creates risk on the downside without benefit on the upside?
  - pavlov 2y ago
    MicroStrategy’s stock price seems to roughly parallel the price of Bitcoin during this bull market. They are not a simple leveraged Bitcoin fund, but something more complicated where the founder’s personality plays a big role. So I guess the market doesn’t quite know how to value this admittedly unique approach, and it defaults to just following Bitcoin on the upside. Who knows what happens if there’s a crash.
    - 627467 2y ago
      > something more complicated where the founder's personality plays a big role Not to pretend that other leveraged funds founder's are equally known as saylor, but how do all other funds differentiate themselves? Is it the same to through money at one vs another?
      - pavlov 2y ago
        MicroStrategy is publicly listed, which is kind of special. I don’t think there’s a lot of celebrity investor hedge funds that are public. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is listed in London and trades at a substantial discount to net asset value (something like 30%). Maybe that’s an indication that markets find it hard to value these vehicles.
- Uw7yTcf36gTc 2y ago
  The loans are 0% interest.
- latchkey 2y ago
  > MicroStrategy seems heavily leveraged "seems"! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R87vco0jHvo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R87vco0jHvo
hlynurd 2y ago
"what if it does next year" is a near-complete summary of the thought process of crypto buyers
- BLKNSLVR 2y ago
  Please do some research. Yes, there are lots of degenerate gamblers, grifters, and scammers in the crypto scene, but any new platform that's in any way related to finance will attract that scum. If you spend a little while attempting to understand Bitcoin's reason for existence, it may start to make some sense. You don't have to buy in, but you will be able to provide a more educated contribution to the discussion.
baq 2y ago
Smart money wins both ways. Saylor will get zeroed eventually, but when that happens is anyone’s guess.
BLKNSLVR 2y ago
To clarify: I wasn't saying the bull run is over, I'm saying it'll likely end some time in 2025, likely late in 2025, if history rhymes. That's what I meant about plenty of water to yet pass under the bridge. Like you said Bitcoin could still double from here.

rswail 2y ago

The new US government has crypto-bros at its core and there will be use of the US Treasury to set up a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" that will be a way for the crypto-bros to milk the US economy to bail themselves out of the market before it dies. Bitcoins are the most useless "asset" that there has ever been. At least beanie babies had some entertainment value and tulips look pretty. Bitcoins and all the other nonsense contribute nothing to the world's real economy, it's entirely a mechanism for washing or moving fiat currency from one place to another. It is used extensively in Asia entirely for that purpose, paying for drugs and gambling transfers. For the actual economy it is useless and the entire "market" is just barely regulated gambling and entertainment.

panarky 2y ago
It's hard to take seriously an argument that recycles the tired trifecta of tropes "tulips, beanie babies and drug dealers". I don't know if bitcoin will eventually become a low level store of value, or if the red hats now running US government will use it to reduce the nation's indebtedness, or if it will gradually fade away as people lose interest, or if it will crash and burn over a weekend. But I am quite certain that the current system of government currencies, sanctions, repression and surveillance is unsustainable in the long run. One look at the stupendously large debt that can never be repaid should make it obvious that the current state cannot continue forever. Nobody knows how long the long run is, but the fiat system has been flashing signals of stress and potential fracture for at least twenty years. Maybe governments and central banks can keep papering over its fault lines for another decade. But when a thing cannot continue forever, at some point it will stop. Is bitcoin the replacement for the base layer? Or is it at least a way to preserve some wealth, outside the increasingly rickety nation-state-fiat system? Some mainstream finance leaders who manage trillions and are far smarter and better connected that I am, seem to think so. I don't know, and you don't know, but there's more than enough evidence that there's something real here. It can't be easily dismissed as just beanie babies, tulips and drug dealers.
- paulryanrogers 2y ago
  When states fail crypto isn't much of a safe harbor. It's just a fiat with crazy interchange fees, except one with a public ledger. Also mining will come to an end soon as it becomes impossible to meet the energy demand.