7 ms·

US housing market is mirroring 2008 bubble–real estate analyst

32 points by madihaa 2y ago

rvz 2y ago
This is even before anyone realizing what “AGI” really means and what it will do to people’s jobs in the future. Once the mass layoffs happen, those who have purchased mortgages at high rates will be unable to pay it off, especially if they have over-leveraged on very expensive houses. Either way, with the over-supply of houses and their prices still skyrocketing regardless, I can see this so-called “AGI” contributing to the bubble and ultimately being partly responsible into causing another crash. There is no point in pretending about it, and “AGI” is all about mass job displacement for no replacement or alternative. What kind of Xmas present is that?
- kidneystereotyp 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - throwawayqqq11 2y ago
    and lol, no robotics.
- n_ary 2y ago
  From what I have seen and experienced, we don’t need AGI, we just need good salesmen to sell high level management into accepting subpar results to cause mass layoff in the short term in name or cutting costs. Eventually, when the bill comes due, most of these management had been promoted/hired to some far away places where the consequences will only go further downward.
  - mnky9800n 2y ago
    I dunno the agi people all come across like the bitcoin true believers. But somehow Bitcoin survived and now seems to make lots of money for some people in spite of itself. I guess agi will be the same if only it got way more money injected into it by people who want their money back than bitcoin.
    - throwawayqqq11 2y ago
      What any crypto currency makes successfull is trust of the people and bitcoin is just the most prominent one, that is its actual value. In comparison, AI has to deliver verifiable results. It cant rely only on marketing speech to gain trust.
- DontchaKnowit 2y ago
  Womp womp AI is takin our jerbs Its not coming anytime soon im so sick of people who dont know anything about anything making baseless doomsday predictions like this. So far the only thing ive seen AI be productive at is shitty art and helping college students cheat on essays.
paulpauper 2y ago
Haven't they made this prediction every year since 2010 or so? Not exactly useful in terms of actionable advice. Odds are you will be sitting on the sidelines as prices keep going up, or sell too soon. Even Covid and other major events failed to put much of a dent in long-term prices.
- adammarples 2y ago
  No, by reading the article we see that it is the opposite of what has been happening since 2010 that is being reported. There is a surplus of homes now, which is a complete reverse of the last ten year trend. > According to Gerli, the explosion of inventory in certain markets of the country is "quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22."
  - paulpauper 2y ago
    but it's the same sort of prediction. the reason is different this time, but the prediction is the same.
tayo42 2y ago
Why does the article say "US" when it goes on to say that there is a surplus in 5 states? Does housing in Texas and Florida have some impact on Oregon or California or Maine?
- rchaud 2y ago
  Because economic contagion starts from the banks, not the home builders. Home prices in TX will eventually have an impact on mortgage bonds issued by a New York bank.
hasbot 2y ago
> "Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia are the most impacted states by the run-up in builder inventory," Gerli continued. Definitely not the case in the markets I'm familiar with (NY, VA, and OR). I expect inventory to be tight again next year because I see no home construction or if there is construction it's way out in the sticks. I'm betting on a tight market - I have a move-in ready empty house that I'll be putting up for sale in the spring. I'm hopeful that waiting several months will net me $30k+.
- greenie_beans 2y ago
  i am looking for housing right now and it's very hard. not in your market. but you still represent the sellers with this comment, gloating about getting a higher profit. while the rest of us struggle to find housing. i have a deep disdain for people like that. i don't care about the market dynamics, that will just make me dislike you even more.
  - tylerchilds 2y ago
    i know a handful of people with empty houses in san francisco. they’re older, bought multiple properties when it was affordable to buy multiple properties. i’m drowning in rent, but their houses sit empty as they’re concerned renting the houses would make them more used and the values would go down. i feel you. we’re screwed, but i’m glad people can profit off misery, especially when an extra 30k can be made according to the purest definition of a war of attrition.
    - fnqi8ckfek 2y ago
      [dead]
  - hasbot 2y ago
    Oh, I know. I looked for houses for years in various markets and was priced out of a couple (e.g. Asheville, NC). I ended up paying $80k over asking for a meh rundown house. The housing shortage and high prices are not the fault of sellers. If you were in my shoes, you'd hold onto the house too.
Sytten 2y ago
Cute, now take a look at Canada. We are way way way past the bubble stage but it just won't pop because that's the only thing left of value here...
- paulpauper 2y ago
  good news: prices have plunged 50% . home are more affordable now! bad news: after prices went up 10x...
- rchaud 2y ago
  Canada's population is distributed VERY differently than in the US. More than half the country lives in a narrow belt running from Quebec to Windsor, Ontario, barely 100 miles from the US border. In the US, there are commercial/business hubs in many places where people can settle, from NY, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta and Texas. And I haven't even mentioned the west coast! Even in this article, the author says the growth in home builds have accrued to a handful of states in the South of the US. Supply elsewhere is still constrained, and costs are still high.
IAmGraydon 2y ago
First of all, if you look at the chart at the end of the article, you can see that the level of inventory is nowhere near 2008 levels and is close to levels that have occurred many times before. That aside, why are we acting like spec home inventory caused the financial crisis and not the fact that subprime debt was issued to people who never stood a chance of paying their mortgages?

32 points by madihaa 2y ago

rvz 2y ago

This is even before anyone realizing what “AGI” really means and what it will do to people’s jobs in the future. Once the mass layoffs happen, those who have purchased mortgages at high rates will be unable to pay it off, especially if they have over-leveraged on very expensive houses. Either way, with the over-supply of houses and their prices still skyrocketing regardless, I can see this so-called “AGI” contributing to the bubble and ultimately being partly responsible into causing another crash. There is no point in pretending about it, and “AGI” is all about mass job displacement for no replacement or alternative. What kind of Xmas present is that?

kidneystereotyp 2y ago
[flagged]
- throwawayqqq11 2y ago
  and lol, no robotics.
n_ary 2y ago
From what I have seen and experienced, we don’t need AGI, we just need good salesmen to sell high level management into accepting subpar results to cause mass layoff in the short term in name or cutting costs. Eventually, when the bill comes due, most of these management had been promoted/hired to some far away places where the consequences will only go further downward.
- mnky9800n 2y ago
  I dunno the agi people all come across like the bitcoin true believers. But somehow Bitcoin survived and now seems to make lots of money for some people in spite of itself. I guess agi will be the same if only it got way more money injected into it by people who want their money back than bitcoin.
  - throwawayqqq11 2y ago
    What any crypto currency makes successfull is trust of the people and bitcoin is just the most prominent one, that is its actual value. In comparison, AI has to deliver verifiable results. It cant rely only on marketing speech to gain trust.
DontchaKnowit 2y ago
Womp womp AI is takin our jerbs Its not coming anytime soon im so sick of people who dont know anything about anything making baseless doomsday predictions like this. So far the only thing ive seen AI be productive at is shitty art and helping college students cheat on essays.

paulpauper 2y ago

Haven't they made this prediction every year since 2010 or so? Not exactly useful in terms of actionable advice. Odds are you will be sitting on the sidelines as prices keep going up, or sell too soon. Even Covid and other major events failed to put much of a dent in long-term prices.

adammarples 2y ago
No, by reading the article we see that it is the opposite of what has been happening since 2010 that is being reported. There is a surplus of homes now, which is a complete reverse of the last ten year trend. > According to Gerli, the explosion of inventory in certain markets of the country is "quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22."
- paulpauper 2y ago
  but it's the same sort of prediction. the reason is different this time, but the prediction is the same.

tayo42 2y ago

Why does the article say "US" when it goes on to say that there is a surplus in 5 states? Does housing in Texas and Florida have some impact on Oregon or California or Maine?

rchaud 2y ago
Because economic contagion starts from the banks, not the home builders. Home prices in TX will eventually have an impact on mortgage bonds issued by a New York bank.

hasbot 2y ago

> "Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia are the most impacted states by the run-up in builder inventory," Gerli continued. Definitely not the case in the markets I'm familiar with (NY, VA, and OR). I expect inventory to be tight again next year because I see no home construction or if there is construction it's way out in the sticks. I'm betting on a tight market - I have a move-in ready empty house that I'll be putting up for sale in the spring. I'm hopeful that waiting several months will net me $30k+.

greenie_beans 2y ago
i am looking for housing right now and it's very hard. not in your market. but you still represent the sellers with this comment, gloating about getting a higher profit. while the rest of us struggle to find housing. i have a deep disdain for people like that. i don't care about the market dynamics, that will just make me dislike you even more.
- tylerchilds 2y ago
  i know a handful of people with empty houses in san francisco. they’re older, bought multiple properties when it was affordable to buy multiple properties. i’m drowning in rent, but their houses sit empty as they’re concerned renting the houses would make them more used and the values would go down. i feel you. we’re screwed, but i’m glad people can profit off misery, especially when an extra 30k can be made according to the purest definition of a war of attrition.
  - fnqi8ckfek 2y ago
    [dead]
- hasbot 2y ago
  Oh, I know. I looked for houses for years in various markets and was priced out of a couple (e.g. Asheville, NC). I ended up paying $80k over asking for a meh rundown house. The housing shortage and high prices are not the fault of sellers. If you were in my shoes, you'd hold onto the house too.

Sytten 2y ago

Cute, now take a look at Canada. We are way way way past the bubble stage but it just won't pop because that's the only thing left of value here...

paulpauper 2y ago
good news: prices have plunged 50% . home are more affordable now! bad news: after prices went up 10x...
rchaud 2y ago
Canada's population is distributed VERY differently than in the US. More than half the country lives in a narrow belt running from Quebec to Windsor, Ontario, barely 100 miles from the US border. In the US, there are commercial/business hubs in many places where people can settle, from NY, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta and Texas. And I haven't even mentioned the west coast! Even in this article, the author says the growth in home builds have accrued to a handful of states in the South of the US. Supply elsewhere is still constrained, and costs are still high.

IAmGraydon 2y ago

First of all, if you look at the chart at the end of the article, you can see that the level of inventory is nowhere near 2008 levels and is close to levels that have occurred many times before. That aside, why are we acting like spec home inventory caused the financial crisis and not the fact that subprime debt was issued to people who never stood a chance of paying their mortgages?