7 ms·

> And sure, it’s possible this stuff is real. But when there’s no conclusive demonstration of it after thousands of years, the burden of proof is firmly on the

> And sure, it’s possible this stuff is real. But when there’s no conclusive demonstration of it after thousands of years, the burden of proof is firmly on the people who think it’s real, and it is definitely not the job of the rest of us to take this stuff seriously. Yeah, I've got a simple way to test this: Go win the powerball lottery using whatever techniques you believe in. Then, even if nobody believes you, you have the proof in your wallet.

twojacobtwo 2y ago
Just to play devil's advocate, perhaps it has already been done (multiple people have won more than one ’1 in XX million chance' lotteries). And perhaps none of those who have the capability of something that specific/difficult (I.e. masters of the craft) want or care to have people know how real their abilities are. I think it's all bullshit, but it doesn't hurt to play the other side sometimes.
- wat10000 2y ago
  I don’t think the lottery is where to look. Look at hedge funds instead. If this stuff were real, hedge funds would be hiring them at insane salaries. There would be a pipeline for identifying, recruiting, and training people with the ability.
  - gus_massa 2y ago
    Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/808/ https://xkcd.com/808/
    - keepamovin 2y ago
      Cope! I like xkcd but this cartoon is wrong. There's zero doubt psi/RV is real. I’m not sure that ‘would be used widely by business’ is a great test of anything. Business is pretty conservative. Observe their adoption of technology, of cyber, even of dress code. Not to mention remote work! Many things that work, as you working in tech in a business context will understand, are specifically not adopted by business for reasons that often don’t make sense (or at least aren’t right) to those who know what works and its value. Even so, this capability is used by business. It's like a high end sensor system used in D&D and corporate espionage, very discrete.
  - LawrenceKerr 2y ago
    True, with the lottery the information density is a lot higher. In market predictions with binary outcomes, you really only need 1 bit of "information transfer". And about the economic argument: let's continue the thought experiment I suggested above. Imagine a universe where psi exists as a real phenomenon of anomalous information transfer & manipulation. Assume anyone has some level of psychic influence on everything else. Let's say this explains the phenomenon of "hey I was thinking of this person and now they're suddenly calling me" (instead of it being purely confirmation bias). In such a universe, you wouldn't want to publish much about your psi-based hedge fund, lest your profits would come under attack from the psi-influence of the active disbelievers... No, you'd keep it under wraps and do your recruiting secretly and selectively. And any disclosure would need happen very slowly and in the right way. The rabbit hole goes deep :-)
  - keepamovin 2y ago
    This is used in finance, business, law enforcement, and other areas. In the same way that private security firms are used to dig up dirt on counterparties. It's very discrete. Also, to run a real operation you can't rely on 1 talent. You need to run a team so it's typically outsourced. Companies don't have the political capital to run a real RV department due to stigma, which has surprising power: business is conservative and not always smart (think dress code, remote work, tech debt), so the test of "used widely by business" is not a great test. Many people in tech know that business decisions are not often rationally about what works best. If you need external validation of why this works, try doing it yourself instead. Then you'll know! :) My answer has all you need to get your first try: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680
- keepamovin 2y ago
  Wow, an open minded skeptic! Caught on in the wild - haha :) Normally it's obvious why people think it's all bullshit, but you seem a little deeper, so I'm curious. What makes you say that?
keepamovin 2y ago
Not many people can read. In context, getting a good hit on an image or future event is very achievable, but zeroing on set of specific numbers is hard. Probably possible with error correction and extremely clever design, by you need to hack the 'sensor' to make it work. This is a sensor like anything else, and it's more impressionistic than fine-grained resolution. Try it and you'll see, my answer gives you all you need to get to your first session: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 Without first hand experience you'll never be able to think about this clearly, due to stigma and materialist priors. So try! :) Analogy to winning powerball is hitting 18 holes of hole in 1s.
- some_furry 2y ago
  > Analogy to winning powerball is hitting 18 holes of hole in 1s. I work in cryptography, so I have a pretty good handle on discrete probability. This is precisely why I posit the powerball lottery as the most convincing proof of any paranormal abilities. That it's hard, or improbable, isn't a deterrent in my eyes. It's exactly what makes successfully being able to win such powerful and convincing evidence. People are free to believe what they want. But if you want me to believe you're correct, I need extraordinary evidence. (And if being able to accurately predict lottery numbers isn't convincing to others? That's their problem.)
  - some_furry 2y ago
    It also isn't enough to win once. A winning lottery is only about 1 in 2^28. I'm going to need this experiment repeated 9 times in a row (1 in 2^252).
    - keepamovin 2y ago
      These odds! Nuts. What else has that standard? hahaha :) far more important tho my reply to your other comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42538042 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42538042
      - 2y ago

twojacobtwo 2y ago

Just to play devil's advocate, perhaps it has already been done (multiple people have won more than one ’1 in XX million chance' lotteries). And perhaps none of those who have the capability of something that specific/difficult (I.e. masters of the craft) want or care to have people know how real their abilities are. I think it's all bullshit, but it doesn't hurt to play the other side sometimes.

wat10000 2y ago
I don’t think the lottery is where to look. Look at hedge funds instead. If this stuff were real, hedge funds would be hiring them at insane salaries. There would be a pipeline for identifying, recruiting, and training people with the ability.
- gus_massa 2y ago
  Relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/808/ https://xkcd.com/808/
  - keepamovin 2y ago
    Cope! I like xkcd but this cartoon is wrong. There's zero doubt psi/RV is real. I’m not sure that ‘would be used widely by business’ is a great test of anything. Business is pretty conservative. Observe their adoption of technology, of cyber, even of dress code. Not to mention remote work! Many things that work, as you working in tech in a business context will understand, are specifically not adopted by business for reasons that often don’t make sense (or at least aren’t right) to those who know what works and its value. Even so, this capability is used by business. It's like a high end sensor system used in D&D and corporate espionage, very discrete.
- LawrenceKerr 2y ago
  True, with the lottery the information density is a lot higher. In market predictions with binary outcomes, you really only need 1 bit of "information transfer". And about the economic argument: let's continue the thought experiment I suggested above. Imagine a universe where psi exists as a real phenomenon of anomalous information transfer & manipulation. Assume anyone has some level of psychic influence on everything else. Let's say this explains the phenomenon of "hey I was thinking of this person and now they're suddenly calling me" (instead of it being purely confirmation bias). In such a universe, you wouldn't want to publish much about your psi-based hedge fund, lest your profits would come under attack from the psi-influence of the active disbelievers... No, you'd keep it under wraps and do your recruiting secretly and selectively. And any disclosure would need happen very slowly and in the right way. The rabbit hole goes deep :-)
- keepamovin 2y ago
  This is used in finance, business, law enforcement, and other areas. In the same way that private security firms are used to dig up dirt on counterparties. It's very discrete. Also, to run a real operation you can't rely on 1 talent. You need to run a team so it's typically outsourced. Companies don't have the political capital to run a real RV department due to stigma, which has surprising power: business is conservative and not always smart (think dress code, remote work, tech debt), so the test of "used widely by business" is not a great test. Many people in tech know that business decisions are not often rationally about what works best. If you need external validation of why this works, try doing it yourself instead. Then you'll know! :) My answer has all you need to get your first try: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680
keepamovin 2y ago
Wow, an open minded skeptic! Caught on in the wild - haha :) Normally it's obvious why people think it's all bullshit, but you seem a little deeper, so I'm curious. What makes you say that?

keepamovin 2y ago

Not many people can read. In context, getting a good hit on an image or future event is very achievable, but zeroing on set of specific numbers is hard. Probably possible with error correction and extremely clever design, by you need to hack the 'sensor' to make it work. This is a sensor like anything else, and it's more impressionistic than fine-grained resolution. Try it and you'll see, my answer gives you all you need to get to your first session: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42528680 Without first hand experience you'll never be able to think about this clearly, due to stigma and materialist priors. So try! :) Analogy to winning powerball is hitting 18 holes of hole in 1s.

some_furry 2y ago
> Analogy to winning powerball is hitting 18 holes of hole in 1s. I work in cryptography, so I have a pretty good handle on discrete probability. This is precisely why I posit the powerball lottery as the most convincing proof of any paranormal abilities. That it's hard, or improbable, isn't a deterrent in my eyes. It's exactly what makes successfully being able to win such powerful and convincing evidence. People are free to believe what they want. But if you want me to believe you're correct, I need extraordinary evidence. (And if being able to accurately predict lottery numbers isn't convincing to others? That's their problem.)
- some_furry 2y ago
  It also isn't enough to win once. A winning lottery is only about 1 in 2^28. I'm going to need this experiment repeated 9 times in a row (1 in 2^252).
  - keepamovin 2y ago
    These odds! Nuts. What else has that standard? hahaha :) far more important tho my reply to your other comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42538042 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42538042
    - 2y ago