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Every so often I receive commercially sensitive information about my company which I'm not allowed to disclose before it's formally communicated to the stock ma
by iamthemonster 2y ago
Every so often I receive commercially sensitive information about my company which I'm not allowed to disclose before it's formally communicated to the stock market. For fun, I try to predict what impact it'll have on the share price (though of course I can't actually trade!)
I can successfully predict the direction of the share price movement 50% of the time and successfully predict the magnitude of the share price movement 0% of the time.
- yieldcrv 2y agoBut in what time frame, can you predict that?
- iamthemonster 2y agoNone.
- foldr 2y ago>I can successfully predict the direction of the share price movement 50% of the time 50% performance when there are two options is chance, no? So that just means that you can't predict it at all.
- xhkkffbf 2y agoTechnically there is a third possibility that the price will remain exactly the same. But the odds of that are even lower.
- peterdsharpe 2y ago...that's the joke.
- n144q 2y agoMaybe consider using a stock market simulator, make trades based on inside information, and see where you end up in one year? That would be interesting.