5 ms·
90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Glob
by doku 2y ago
90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled.
90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM.
90% CL: AI with tool use that has access to physics simulator and CAD software will automatically advances efficent engine design.
70% CL: Million dollar prompt run on million dollar math prize. Millennium Prize Problems
40% CL: AI sucessfully held back invasive species encrochment with lessons from AI war machines
30% CL: Cheap AI nose sniffs out many common diseases. Automatic data analysis of Gas Chromatography and spectroscopy readings on patients' VOC(volatile organic compounds) produces fast and cheap diagnosis.
10% CL: Not next year, Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity. Or other processes to package solar energy for trade.
- Lionga 2y agocan i have some of what you have been smoking?
- qznc 2y agoI don’t think global temperatures get another record because El Niño is over. Your „weather“ suggests a more local reference though?
- 01jonny01 2y agoIt sounds more clever to use Confidence Level, rather than just saying you are pulling random probabilities out of your a$$
- defrost 2y agoRenewable energy has been the cheaper option in remote areas for a while now, solar demand in Pakistan has skyrocted recently. Solar powered water pumps and water purification has been a commodity and charity item since 2023 (that I recall) eg: https://nrsp.org.pk/hand-operated-and-solar-powered-portable-water-filtration-units/ https://nrsp.org.pk/hand-operated-and-solar-powered-portable... https://www.bondheshams.org/ https://www.bondheshams.org/
- HDThoreaun 2y agoI read a piece about how abundant solar in rural Afghanistan strengthened the Taliban as poppy and therefore opium production skyrocketed because they were able to install electric wells.
- garbageoverflow 2y agointerested in the article. would you like to share a link?
- HDThoreaun 2y agohttps://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53450688
- defrost 2y agoHere in W.Australia we've been using solar powered signal repeaters along rail lines and mesa tops since the mid 1970's in the Pilbara mining industry. Solar powered bores for farms in the wheatbelt and cattle country has been a regular feature for over a decade now. The panels and batteries are better than ever now, but they've been Total Cost break even better than fossil fuel alternatives in remote Australia for a very long time (esp. factoring in need to travel to a bore to refuel, etc. Vs "it just works" (until it doesn't, but all solutions require upkeep)).
- pjc50 2y ago> Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity Oxygen is already kind of a commodity. Did you mean hydrogen? Anyway, this isn't going to happen, look at retail power prices. > Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. I'm not sure in what sense SEO is "solved" here, but this basically puts the Internet into a nasty local minimum where it's kind of good enough for information you don't care about, but will feed you wrong information often enough to cause problems, while having stripped all the traditional reliability signals. Possibly also kills what's left of fact-based journalism.
- anastasiaess 2y agoI’m grateful for my librarian.
- fnqi8ckfek 2y agoHow do those confidence levels work? It looks to me you're just assigning probabilities to outcomes.
- yunwal 2y agoI think it's roughly: "I would bet 9$ to your $1 that this happens", although some of these are vague enough that you couldn't objectively determine whether the bet materialized.
- fnqi8ckfek 2y agoSo they aren't confidence levels. They're odds, but he's trying to sound sophisticated.
- rakkhi 2y agoI did my top 5 for my field cyber security AI in cyber defence and attack Quantum resistant cryptography Death of the password? Passwordless, passkeys, phishing resistant MFA More suppliers compromised, another major open source project long con Doing more with less: automation and consolidation https://rakkhi.substack.com/p/cyber-security-predictions-for-2025 https://rakkhi.substack.com/p/cyber-security-predictions-for...
- dartos 2y agoReally bullish on AI, huh? Designing an engine? “[snuffs] out common diseases”? Solving SEO? Idk cotton, let’s see how this plays out.
- 0-_-0 2y agoSniffs out, meaning diagnoses
- dartos 2y agoCould just as well be a typo. I’ve never heard anyone call diagnosing “sniffing”
- feznyng 2y agoIt’s an idiom, like the detective sniffed out some clues.
- doku 2y agolol, I do mean a sniff with a nose. The technology I'm referring to can work by taking air sample. This technology exist, the prediction is that cheap version will be available. My assumption is robots will want a digital nose, for example nanny bots will want to smell smoke and react. An example I read for this technology is that grocery store robot will want to detect spoiled food. It will be mass produced and gets cheaper. But we don't have a robot industry yet, so my confidence level on this prediction is low. The AI part of this is just data analysis of spectral lines.
- Riseed 2y agoDisease can change body odor, and dogs have been trained to "sniff out disease" [0][1] (i.e. detect via smell) for years. Various researchers have been working on robot noses that would be able to do the same.[2] Presumably a widespread and/or less expensive version of this "robot nose" is what doku means by "AI nose sniffs out many common diseases". [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01629-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01629-8 [1] https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/how-do-dogs-sniff-out-diseases https://www.discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/how-do-dogs-sn... [2] https://bigthink.com/the-future/robotic-nose-smartphone-detect-disease/ https://bigthink.com/the-future/robotic-nose-smartphone-dete...
- thimabi 2y ago> 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text Are you sure you meant this as a prediction for 2025? It has been months, if not years, since search engines have been inundated by LLM articles. The pursuit of advertising dollars has even made many long-tail queries worthless. Results often are a pile of AI-generated spam sprinkled with display ads and biased affiliate links. Ad blockers can deal with some of that, but there remains the problem of not finding appropriate results to many search queries. This has been the sad state of the web for quite some time, and it’s just going to worsen.