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banger. on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have goog

banger. on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have google images and youtube. on proprietary general intelligence ai i think openai and anthropic will keep their lead, while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity. something to keep eye on though is china. have you guys seen their recent open source models? very impressive. looking at it, it seems like a head to head battle between USA and China. Europe seems heavily distracted with its regulations and politics. > I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music) goddamn that would be interesting. it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo etc which is prone to political and non-political influences and slow-downs in production. > Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video. i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too. back then we used manual instruments and talented voice actors for voice, these days you could (possibly) produce similar results if you're skilled enough to precisely describe it to the ai you are directing / working with. > The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k huge bet on this too, the brains are getting better and for sure yc's request for startup will eventually have a section dedicated for the body and limb part targetting different industries.

abetusk 2y ago
> ... i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset ... I think there's plenty of data for people to train substantial models, either drawing directly from the public domain or scraping content. The cost of compute and disk space will continue to drop exponentially fueling the ability of small businesses and amateurs. Compute is still following Moore's law, more or less, when you allow for GPUs. Hard drives are relatively on the same path, with maybe a price halving every 3 years or so. > ... while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity. Meta's offering is not open source. I agree that all the big players will make substantial moves in this space but I'm much more interested in the niche models that are actually libre/free/open source. I suspect FOSS will eventually eat all the big players lunch but I don't have a good read on it (nor do I know anything about China's OSS models). > it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo ... It sounds like a "Black Mirror" episode but I can't wait (and I don't think it'll be as bad as "Black Mirror"). > i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too ... My read on this is that we're in the "experimental art house" phase of this type of generative AI. So many people create weird things, experimenting with the technology but ultimately having low expectations in terms of what gets produced. Sometime soon (1-2+ years?) my guess is we'll see finer control with someone, either an actor, director, etc. that can provide dialogue, facial expression and body language with minimal setup, a camera or voice recording, say, that can make or refine avatar/agent performance. I would guess this would be available to specialized visual graphics shops but will eventually bleed out so that amateurs have access. I think we might be seeing this available already. Eventually, we'll have "make what I want", but I would imagine that's 5-10+ years away.
- jasondigitized 2y ago
  Regarding the video generation stuff, I can foresee a Canva style UI that allows you to define the position of your camera, movement, lighting etc. coupled with a prompt. Or a catalog of exiting movie scenes that you can select as a starting point to define the setting, cinematography, etc.
  - satvikpendem 2y ago
    Runway ML already does this I think
gregw2 2y ago
Regatding China recent AI advances, I would add to your point... I think China has more Chinese-language datasets that the West will find hard to get and train for effectively, than the West has in terms of its English datasets which both parties can exploit. Additionally China has greater volume of 'less expensive manpower' and greater coercive power to create synthetic datasets than what we will see coming to bear from the West. I haven't seen other people point this out. The next few years will be intetesting times.

abetusk 2y ago

> ... i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset ... I think there's plenty of data for people to train substantial models, either drawing directly from the public domain or scraping content. The cost of compute and disk space will continue to drop exponentially fueling the ability of small businesses and amateurs. Compute is still following Moore's law, more or less, when you allow for GPUs. Hard drives are relatively on the same path, with maybe a price halving every 3 years or so. > ... while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity. Meta's offering is not open source. I agree that all the big players will make substantial moves in this space but I'm much more interested in the niche models that are actually libre/free/open source. I suspect FOSS will eventually eat all the big players lunch but I don't have a good read on it (nor do I know anything about China's OSS models). > it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo ... It sounds like a "Black Mirror" episode but I can't wait (and I don't think it'll be as bad as "Black Mirror"). > i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too ... My read on this is that we're in the "experimental art house" phase of this type of generative AI. So many people create weird things, experimenting with the technology but ultimately having low expectations in terms of what gets produced. Sometime soon (1-2+ years?) my guess is we'll see finer control with someone, either an actor, director, etc. that can provide dialogue, facial expression and body language with minimal setup, a camera or voice recording, say, that can make or refine avatar/agent performance. I would guess this would be available to specialized visual graphics shops but will eventually bleed out so that amateurs have access. I think we might be seeing this available already. Eventually, we'll have "make what I want", but I would imagine that's 5-10+ years away.

jasondigitized 2y ago
Regarding the video generation stuff, I can foresee a Canva style UI that allows you to define the position of your camera, movement, lighting etc. coupled with a prompt. Or a catalog of exiting movie scenes that you can select as a starting point to define the setting, cinematography, etc.
- satvikpendem 2y ago
  Runway ML already does this I think

gregw2 2y ago

Regatding China recent AI advances, I would add to your point... I think China has more Chinese-language datasets that the West will find hard to get and train for effectively, than the West has in terms of its English datasets which both parties can exploit. Additionally China has greater volume of 'less expensive manpower' and greater coercive power to create synthetic datasets than what we will see coming to bear from the West. I haven't seen other people point this out. The next few years will be intetesting times.