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AMD could spend their market cap in one year to get this done in three and it would be a coup for the shareholders. They could hire all of the best NVIDIA engin

AMD could spend their market cap in one year to get this done in three and it would be a coup for the shareholders. They could hire all of the best NVIDIA engineers at double their current comp, crush the next TSMC node on Apple levels, and just do it and if it got them a quarter of NVDA’s cap it would be a bargain. They don’t fucking want to! Believing this is anything like a market is fucking religion.

robocat 2y ago
Try to make sense... They can spend their market cap by either: 1: issuing new shares worth their market cap, diluting existing shareholders to 50%. 2: Or borrow their market cap and pay interest by decreasing profits. "AMD operating margin for the quarter ending September 30, 2024 was 5.64%" so profits would be extremely impacted by interest repayments. Either way your suggestion would be unlikely to be supported by shareholders. > crush the next TSMC node on Apple levels I would guess Apple is indirectly paying for the hardware (to avoid repatriating profits) or guaranteeing usage to get to the front of the line at TSMC. Good luck AMD competing with Apple: there's a reason AMD sold GlobalFoundries and there's a reason Intel is now struggling with their foundry costs. And it comes across as condescending to assume you know better than a successful company.
- benreesman 2y ago
  When 4 trillion dollars are at stake, the financing is available or it fucking better be. What in God’s name do we pay these structured finance, bond-issue assholes 15% of GDP for if not to finance a sure thing like that? It sure as hell ain’t for their taste in Charvet and Hermes ties, because the ones they pick look like shit.
atq2119 2y ago
You make it sound like that's a sure thing, but I doubt it. A lot of this is about processes, team structures and incentives, all those fuzzy things between the people. Remember, most acquisitions fail. For the same reason, the likelihood of failure with your scenario seems high. Do you really think nobody at AMD is aware of all the points made in this thread? That seems too bizarre to be true. There are probably some issues in upper management which could perhaps be fixed with some targeted hiring decisions, but do you really believe some random person on here would have a chance making that call?
- benreesman 2y ago
  We were arguing about this two years ago, maybe five. I was sharing NVIDIA dev boxes with other hackers doing CUDA in 2016. There’s this meme that it can’t change on a dime and I believe that. You could build this from scratch in a decade. JFK sent NASA to the moon in less time for comparable money. If NVIDIA shareholders can’t come close? What fucking good are they? Why do our carrier battle groups guard their supply chain?
  - benreesman 2y ago
    Everyone is so concerned about “losing” the “AI” “race” to the PRC. I say ship them Altman and an exaflop and watch their society corrupt itself at a fractal nature at machine speed. Good fucking riddance. I see your fentanyl crisis: raise you Sam and a failure to ship GPT-5. Have fun with that.

robocat 2y ago

Try to make sense... They can spend their market cap by either: 1: issuing new shares worth their market cap, diluting existing shareholders to 50%. 2: Or borrow their market cap and pay interest by decreasing profits. "AMD operating margin for the quarter ending September 30, 2024 was 5.64%" so profits would be extremely impacted by interest repayments. Either way your suggestion would be unlikely to be supported by shareholders. > crush the next TSMC node on Apple levels I would guess Apple is indirectly paying for the hardware (to avoid repatriating profits) or guaranteeing usage to get to the front of the line at TSMC. Good luck AMD competing with Apple: there's a reason AMD sold GlobalFoundries and there's a reason Intel is now struggling with their foundry costs. And it comes across as condescending to assume you know better than a successful company.

benreesman 2y ago
When 4 trillion dollars are at stake, the financing is available or it fucking better be. What in God’s name do we pay these structured finance, bond-issue assholes 15% of GDP for if not to finance a sure thing like that? It sure as hell ain’t for their taste in Charvet and Hermes ties, because the ones they pick look like shit.

atq2119 2y ago

You make it sound like that's a sure thing, but I doubt it. A lot of this is about processes, team structures and incentives, all those fuzzy things between the people. Remember, most acquisitions fail. For the same reason, the likelihood of failure with your scenario seems high. Do you really think nobody at AMD is aware of all the points made in this thread? That seems too bizarre to be true. There are probably some issues in upper management which could perhaps be fixed with some targeted hiring decisions, but do you really believe some random person on here would have a chance making that call?

benreesman 2y ago
We were arguing about this two years ago, maybe five. I was sharing NVIDIA dev boxes with other hackers doing CUDA in 2016. There’s this meme that it can’t change on a dime and I believe that. You could build this from scratch in a decade. JFK sent NASA to the moon in less time for comparable money. If NVIDIA shareholders can’t come close? What fucking good are they? Why do our carrier battle groups guard their supply chain?
- benreesman 2y ago
  Everyone is so concerned about “losing” the “AI” “race” to the PRC. I say ship them Altman and an exaflop and watch their society corrupt itself at a fractal nature at machine speed. Good fucking riddance. I see your fentanyl crisis: raise you Sam and a failure to ship GPT-5. Have fun with that.