4 ms·

Previous years: 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https:/

• esperent 2y ago
  There's a second 2024 thread here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.
  • EFreethought 2y ago
    > reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. I think that is true of most predictions.
  • locallost 2y ago
    It reflects the mood, which tells me all I need to know about things like short term stock changes. In reality nobody can predict the future. My predictions have historically also been way off, but what is surprising to me is that people don't reflect on their misses. For the most part I've given up in predicting anything, at best I will look at trends and see if there's something there or not. But with that said I will now post my predictions for 2025 :-).
    • WA 2y ago
      Post your portfolio alongside please :)
  • wenc 2y ago
    This is mostly just for fun and will be mostly wrong because none of the people who are making predictions take it seriously. And none of the upvoters take it seriously either. There is a discipline to making predictions (Phil Tetlock has observed a few traits: avoiding base rate fallacies, working in probabilities not binaries, making falsifiable predictions, and continuously updating). None of the predictions here do that, so we shouldn’t expect any kind of reasonable hit rate. It’s just end of year fun.
• bobro 2y ago
  Crazy how wrong people were in the top 2024 comments.
  • kyriakos 2y ago
    Indeed someone predicted vision pro will be wildly popular.
    • dominicrose 2y ago
      Yes. People are not stupid. It's one thing to have a phone in your purse. It's another to have something on your head and eyes, like how is anyone going to agree to that? Sure if it was very cheap you'd find some interested folks.
      • hex3 2y ago
        [dead]
      • Freedom2 2y ago
        I remember being called outdated, a contrarian and 'in the way of progress' on this site when I expressed doubt that the Vision Pro would be 'the next iPhone', as people on this site put it. I was told that our way of working would change within the year and that everybody would be scrambling to emulate Apple. I don't mind enthusiasm and excitement, but for others to directly make such bold claims then put others down was a disappointing experience for me here.
        • arvinsim 2y ago
          Some people will just never get out of Apple's Reality Distortion Field, willingly or unwillingly.
  • skatanski 2y ago
    Could it be the top comments even though most voted are also most commented and more divisive and controversial? And the most boring comments are somewhere at the back? Hence big amount of failed predictions at the top.
• Lionga 2y ago
  betting on the opposite of what HN predicts seems like a pretty safe bet if you read the old threads.
  • monkeydust 2y ago
    Reminds me of a running joke with a friend. His stock picks are so off I told him to create an inverse etf of his picks and I would pile into that, at least one of us would make some money.
    • aaronrobinson 2y ago
      After losing my shirt some years earlier I announced to my wife that I was ready to get into the buying shares again. She agreed, but only if I bought good ones this time.
• jaakl 2y ago
  This one from 2010 is just creepy: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093
• danicriss 2y ago
  2009 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=416530 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=416530