> Generally in economics we discuss individual effects while holding other effects equal (ceteris paribus). Ceteris paribus is Latin for "holding a cat by its

> Generally in economics we discuss individual effects while holding other effects equal (ceteris paribus). Ceteris paribus is Latin for "holding a cat by its paws to look under its tail", named so because it tells you how long you can "hold other effects equal" before you'll be made to regret the attempt. This is to say, the economy is a system of tight feedback loops, not independently random effects. This is the part I rarely see emphasized wrt. "ceteris paribus". You're trying to hold constant the very effects that will react to change under discussion, which both severely limits the range of a single forecasting step, and should invite conversation about those other effects.