3 ms·

> What will happen to 3rd world countries Probably less disruption than will happen in 1st world countries. > No one will have chance to be rich anymore It's

by wyager 2y ago

> What will happen to 3rd world countries Probably less disruption than will happen in 1st world countries. > No one will have chance to be rich anymore It's strange to reach this conclusion from "look, a massive new productivity increase".

demirbey05 2y ago
its not like sonnet, yes current ai tools are increasing productivity and provides many ways to have chance to be rich, but agi is completely different. You need to handle evil competition between you and big fishes, probably big fishes will have more ai resources than you. What is the survival ratio in such a environment ? Very low.
janalsncm 2y ago
Strange indeed if we work under the assumption that the profits from this productivity will be distributed (even roughly) evenly. The problem is that most of us see no indication that they will be. I read “no one will have a chance to be rich anymore” as a statement about economic mobility. Despite steep declines in mobility over the last 50 years, it was still theoretically possible for a poor child (say bottom 20% wealth) to climb several quintiles. Our industry (SWE) was one of the best examples. Of course there have been practical barriers (poor kids go to worse schools, and it’s hard to get into college if you can’t read) but the path was there. If robots replace a lot of people, that path narrows. If AGI replaces all people, the path no longer exists.
the8472 2y ago
Intelligence is the thing distinguishing humans from all previous inventions that already were superhuman in some narrow domain. car : horse :: AGI : humans
entropi 2y ago
It is not strange at all, a very big motivation of spending billions in AI research is basically to remove what is called "skill premium" from the labor market. That "skill premium" was usually how people got richer than their fathers.

3 ms·

> What will happen to 3rd world countries Probably less disruption than will happen in 1st world countries. > No one will have chance to be rich anymore It's

by wyager 2y ago

demirbey05 2y ago
its not like sonnet, yes current ai tools are increasing productivity and provides many ways to have chance to be rich, but agi is completely different. You need to handle evil competition between you and big fishes, probably big fishes will have more ai resources than you. What is the survival ratio in such a environment ? Very low.
janalsncm 2y ago
Strange indeed if we work under the assumption that the profits from this productivity will be distributed (even roughly) evenly. The problem is that most of us see no indication that they will be. I read “no one will have a chance to be rich anymore” as a statement about economic mobility. Despite steep declines in mobility over the last 50 years, it was still theoretically possible for a poor child (say bottom 20% wealth) to climb several quintiles. Our industry (SWE) was one of the best examples. Of course there have been practical barriers (poor kids go to worse schools, and it’s hard to get into college if you can’t read) but the path was there. If robots replace a lot of people, that path narrows. If AGI replaces all people, the path no longer exists.
the8472 2y ago
Intelligence is the thing distinguishing humans from all previous inventions that already were superhuman in some narrow domain. car : horse :: AGI : humans
entropi 2y ago
It is not strange at all, a very big motivation of spending billions in AI research is basically to remove what is called "skill premium" from the labor market. That "skill premium" was usually how people got richer than their fathers.