4 ms·
So your claim for optimism here is that something today that took ~10^22 floating point operations (based on an estimate earlier in the thread) to execute will
by radioactivist 2y ago
So your claim for optimism here is that something today that took ~10^22 floating point operations (based on an estimate earlier in the thread) to execute will be running on phones in 25 years? Phones which are currently running at O(10^12) flops. That means ten orders of magnitudes of improvement for that to run in a reasonable amount of time? It's a similar scale up in going from ENIAC (500 flops) to a modern desktop (5-10 teraflops).
- futureshock 2y agoThat sounds reasonable to me because the compute cost for this level of reasoning performance won’t stay at 10^22 and phones won’t stay at 10^12. This reasoning breakthrough is about 3 months old.
- radioactivist 2y agoI think expecting five orders of magnitude improvement from either side of this (inference cost or phone performance) is insane.
- esafak 2y agoI don't, because most of the improvement will be algorithmic, not physical.
- radioactivist 2y agoBy a factor of 10,000,000,000? (that's the ten orders of magnitude needed, since the physical side is out). Algorithmic improvements will make this 10 billion times cheaper?