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I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrock

I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket.

mhogers 2y ago
Is anyone here aware of the latest research that tries to predict the outcome? Please share - super curious as well
- te_chris 2y ago
  There’s this https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.05481v9 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.05481v9
- pdfernhout 2y ago
  Some thoughts I put together on all this circa 2010: https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html "This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the end four major alternatives to mainstream economic practice (a basic income, a gift economy, stronger local subsistence economies, and resource-based planning). These alternatives could be used in combination to address what, even as far back as 1964, has been described as a breaking "income-through-jobs link". This link between jobs and income is breaking because of the declining value of most paid human labor relative to capital investments in automation and better design. Or, as is now the case, the value of paid human labor like at some newspapers or universities is also declining relative to the output of voluntary social networks such as for digital content production (like represented by this document). It is suggested that we will need to fundamentally reevaluate our economic theories and practices to adjust to these new realities emerging from exponential trends in technology and society."
tivert 2y ago
> I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket. Even if productivity skyrockets, why would anyone assume the dividends would be shared with the "destroy[ed] middle class"? All indications will be this will end up like the China Shock: "I lost my middle class job, and all I got was the opportunity to buy flimsy pieces of crap from a dollar store." America lacks the ideological foundations for any other result, and the coming economic changes will likely make building those foundations even more difficult if not impossible.
- rohan_ 2y ago
  Because access to the financial system was democratized ten years ago
  - tivert 2y ago
    > Because access to the financial system was democratized ten years ago Huh? I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about, but mere "access to the financial system" wouldn't remedy anything, because of inequality, etc. To survive the shock financially, I think one would have to have at least enough capital to be a capitalist.
akra 2y ago
The default position is that it will decrease the need of what the middle class can offer (skilled labor). All else being equal that increases the value of the other factors of production (the next bottleneck) such as capital and land. Unless something changes, if I was a billionaire I would be ecstatic at the moment. Now even the impossible seems potentially possible if this delivers on its promises (e.g. go to Mars, build a utopia for my inner circle, etc). I no longer need other people to have everything. Previously there was no point in money if I didn't have a place to spend it/people to accept it. Now with real assets I can use AI/machines to do what I want - I no longer need "money" or more accurately other people to live a very wealthy life. Again this is all else being equal. Lots of other things could change, but with increasing surveillance by use of technology I doubt large revolutions/etc will ever get the chance to get off the ground or have the scale to be effective. Interesting times.

I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket.

mhogers 2y ago

Is anyone here aware of the latest research that tries to predict the outcome? Please share - super curious as well

te_chris 2y ago
There’s this https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.05481v9 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.05481v9
pdfernhout 2y ago
Some thoughts I put together on all this circa 2010: https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html https://pdfernhout.net/beyond-a-jobless-recovery-knol.html "This article explores the issue of a "Jobless Recovery" mainly from a heterodox economic perspective. It emphasizes the implications of ideas by Marshall Brain and others that improvements in robotics, automation, design, and voluntary social networks are fundamentally changing the structure of the economic landscape. It outlines towards the end four major alternatives to mainstream economic practice (a basic income, a gift economy, stronger local subsistence economies, and resource-based planning). These alternatives could be used in combination to address what, even as far back as 1964, has been described as a breaking "income-through-jobs link". This link between jobs and income is breaking because of the declining value of most paid human labor relative to capital investments in automation and better design. Or, as is now the case, the value of paid human labor like at some newspapers or universities is also declining relative to the output of voluntary social networks such as for digital content production (like represented by this document). It is suggested that we will need to fundamentally reevaluate our economic theories and practices to adjust to these new realities emerging from exponential trends in technology and society."

tivert 2y ago

> I’m super curious as to whether this technology completely destroys the middle class, or if everyone becomes better off because productivity is going to skyrocket. Even if productivity skyrockets, why would anyone assume the dividends would be shared with the "destroy[ed] middle class"? All indications will be this will end up like the China Shock: "I lost my middle class job, and all I got was the opportunity to buy flimsy pieces of crap from a dollar store." America lacks the ideological foundations for any other result, and the coming economic changes will likely make building those foundations even more difficult if not impossible.

rohan_ 2y ago
Because access to the financial system was democratized ten years ago
- tivert 2y ago
  > Because access to the financial system was democratized ten years ago Huh? I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about, but mere "access to the financial system" wouldn't remedy anything, because of inequality, etc. To survive the shock financially, I think one would have to have at least enough capital to be a capitalist.

akra 2y ago

The default position is that it will decrease the need of what the middle class can offer (skilled labor). All else being equal that increases the value of the other factors of production (the next bottleneck) such as capital and land. Unless something changes, if I was a billionaire I would be ecstatic at the moment. Now even the impossible seems potentially possible if this delivers on its promises (e.g. go to Mars, build a utopia for my inner circle, etc). I no longer need other people to have everything. Previously there was no point in money if I didn't have a place to spend it/people to accept it. Now with real assets I can use AI/machines to do what I want - I no longer need "money" or more accurately other people to live a very wealthy life. Again this is all else being equal. Lots of other things could change, but with increasing surveillance by use of technology I doubt large revolutions/etc will ever get the chance to get off the ground or have the scale to be effective. Interesting times.