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El Salvador's case is not as clear cut as it might seem - see #3 at https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-prison https://www.astralco
by I-M-S 2y ago
El Salvador's case is not as clear cut as it might seem - see #3 at https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-prison https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comment...
- gjsman-1000 2y agoThat’s probably one of the least convincing and anecdotal things I’ve read online. I’m going to remember this for years.
- elil17 2y agoNot saying ACX is a reliable source, but you can totally see the trend they are talking about in publicly available data. Murders had already fallen a lot by the time the imprisonment campaign started.
- gjsman-1000 2y agoA. Is that possibly called deterrence? B. “Fallen a lot” isn’t the same as “Murder rate lower than Canada.” C. Your bias is by pointing out how much it has fallen since 2015. This is however an outlier bias - in 2015, El Salvador was the world’s most dangerous country. #1 for murders, by over 30% more than #2. The pre-mass-incarceration rate, though lower, would still be considered dangerous anywhere else. Going from “world’s most dangerous country” to “just a dangerous country” isn’t a victory, and it does not follow that following this, the country would naturally transition to “safe country.”