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> may not have as strong an effect as one might like You’re forgetting how much crime is motivated by “merciful” judges afraid to give long sentences to people

> may not have as strong an effect as one might like You’re forgetting how much crime is motivated by “merciful” judges afraid to give long sentences to people who are incapable of functioning in society. All you have to do is look at El Salvador for the ultimate proof study. According to CNN, murders fell by 97.7%. The western academic whines about the innocent; but NGOs invited to oversee the project have yet to make a single convincing innocence story. There’s also the issue that crime is fundamentally, at its very root, a punishment of the innocent. Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the harmless.

I-M-S 2y ago
El Salvador's case is not as clear cut as it might seem - see #3 at https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-prison https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comment...
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  That’s probably one of the least convincing and anecdotal things I’ve read online. I’m going to remember this for years.
  - elil17 2y ago
    Not saying ACX is a reliable source, but you can totally see the trend they are talking about in publicly available data. Murders had already fallen a lot by the time the imprisonment campaign started.
    - gjsman-1000 2y ago
      A. Is that possibly called deterrence? B. “Fallen a lot” isn’t the same as “Murder rate lower than Canada.” C. Your bias is by pointing out how much it has fallen since 2015. This is however an outlier bias - in 2015, El Salvador was the world’s most dangerous country. #1 for murders, by over 30% more than #2. The pre-mass-incarceration rate, though lower, would still be considered dangerous anywhere else. Going from “world’s most dangerous country” to “just a dangerous country” isn’t a victory, and it does not follow that following this, the country would naturally transition to “safe country.”
elil17 2y ago
I’m far from an expert on this - but doesn’t it seem like they are just locking up all the people inclined to commit murder, not actually deterring people for the most part? It still seems consistent with the idea that crime is mostly impulse-based and hard to deter. Additionally, wouldn’t less serious crimes (like shoplifting) be even harder to deter than murder, since they are even more likely to be committed impulsively?
- gjsman-1000 2y ago
  The two are not incompatible. You can lock up the people most likely to murder; before you solve all possible society causes and build perfect deterrence. I do know though, that your ability to build deterrence, or fix societal causes, will be heavily impaired to the point of impossibility if you don’t fix the marauder problem first. Deterrence is a preventative measure like brushing your teeth - but you can't brush your teeth later out of gingivitis after-the-fact. It’s like saying fixing corrupt nations need democracy. Maybe - but if the people are starving, that’s the first problem needing fixing, or the attempt at democratic reforms will certainly fail.
mrweasel 2y ago
That's kinda wild if the NGOs haven't been able to find a single innocently convicted. El Salvador has jailed 8% of young men, many of which based on nothing more than anonymous tips.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  NGO's have no authority. The Salvadorian government has to let them in and allow them to do the work. If they say 'fuck off' there isn't much to be done -- and that's what happened.

I-M-S 2y ago

El Salvador's case is not as clear cut as it might seem - see #3 at https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-prison https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comment...

gjsman-1000 2y ago
That’s probably one of the least convincing and anecdotal things I’ve read online. I’m going to remember this for years.
- elil17 2y ago
  Not saying ACX is a reliable source, but you can totally see the trend they are talking about in publicly available data. Murders had already fallen a lot by the time the imprisonment campaign started.
  - gjsman-1000 2y ago
    A. Is that possibly called deterrence? B. “Fallen a lot” isn’t the same as “Murder rate lower than Canada.” C. Your bias is by pointing out how much it has fallen since 2015. This is however an outlier bias - in 2015, El Salvador was the world’s most dangerous country. #1 for murders, by over 30% more than #2. The pre-mass-incarceration rate, though lower, would still be considered dangerous anywhere else. Going from “world’s most dangerous country” to “just a dangerous country” isn’t a victory, and it does not follow that following this, the country would naturally transition to “safe country.”

elil17 2y ago

I’m far from an expert on this - but doesn’t it seem like they are just locking up all the people inclined to commit murder, not actually deterring people for the most part? It still seems consistent with the idea that crime is mostly impulse-based and hard to deter. Additionally, wouldn’t less serious crimes (like shoplifting) be even harder to deter than murder, since they are even more likely to be committed impulsively?

gjsman-1000 2y ago
The two are not incompatible. You can lock up the people most likely to murder; before you solve all possible society causes and build perfect deterrence. I do know though, that your ability to build deterrence, or fix societal causes, will be heavily impaired to the point of impossibility if you don’t fix the marauder problem first. Deterrence is a preventative measure like brushing your teeth - but you can't brush your teeth later out of gingivitis after-the-fact. It’s like saying fixing corrupt nations need democracy. Maybe - but if the people are starving, that’s the first problem needing fixing, or the attempt at democratic reforms will certainly fail.

mrweasel 2y ago

That's kinda wild if the NGOs haven't been able to find a single innocently convicted. El Salvador has jailed 8% of young men, many of which based on nothing more than anonymous tips.

red-iron-pine 2y ago
NGO's have no authority. The Salvadorian government has to let them in and allow them to do the work. If they say 'fuck off' there isn't much to be done -- and that's what happened.