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> the Vision Pro’s sales up to this point justify discontinuation What are you basing this on though? From all accounts they’re pretty close to selling the num

by dagmx 2y ago

> the Vision Pro’s sales up to this point justify discontinuation What are you basing this on though? From all accounts they’re pretty close to selling the number of units they could manufacture.

dangus 2y ago
I’m basing this on reports that it has not crossed the million unit sales number. Possibly just barely crossing the 500,000 mark right about now. These are sales that are on par with the Nintendo Virtual Boy. And if they can’t manufacture any more than that, they have an even bigger problem. It’s now been a year and a half since the first model was announced and there is no sign of a second model to move the product into a more mass appeal device. We saw critical follow-ups like the iPhone 3G and Apple Watch Series 1/2 come out as quick releases that were in retrospect very important to establishing a practical device that a regular person might consider buying. I think the fact that we haven’t seen one yet is a huge problem. If Apple couldn’t make another leap in a calendar year it’s clear that they will never catch up to Meta. Meta is out there selling a gazillion Quest 3S bundles to your local Costco impulse buyer.
- dagmx 2y ago
  I suspect your expectations for sales are much loftier than Apple’s. The million sales mark was from one single report by Kuo. Kuo himself previously said they were limited to ~900K display units which is ~450K devices and other analysts have said the same. There is no other source saying 1M was the target that I know of that doesn’t trace back to Kuo. If they are at ~500K units then they’ve exceeded the initial sales target that Kuo himself laid out. For your second point about a follow up, you’re comparing product announcement to product launches. The product itself only launched 10months ago. You’re expecting a second iteration within 10 months, of an entirely new product class for them ? Meanwhile other more popular Apple products often go longer between releases. Even Meta are around two years between products within a device class. Your last point of comparing to a meta quest is misplaced too. They’re different classes of the same device category. There’s no way Apple are expecting to compete with a device a tenth of its price for total sales.
  - aprilthird2021 2y ago
    But the products are not 10x different in quality and especially there is not 10x more content on the AVP than the Quest
    - dagmx 2y ago
      If all you care about is gaming, perhaps. But there’s a lot of areas where the Vision Pro is a better product to the point where the price difference is irrelevant. Much like professional cameras aren’t actually 10x the features of prosumer cameras, yet command a higher price because of what they enable at the high end. Industrial and medical use, creative platforms etc, Literally the only other headsets I can use for the lines of work I’m involved with are 4x the price of the Vision Pro (the Varjo XRs), yet by your metric wouldn’t be worthwhile. And this is the problem with people who don’t consider usecases beyond their own.
      - dangus 2y ago
        So Apple, the company that doesn't sell an enterprise cloud computing platform and doesn't sell a business productivity suite wants to sell the Vision Pro to specialized industries? Excuse me for being very skeptical. I don't see a whole lot of Apple marketing material talking about the Vision Pro as a professional device. They have a grand total of one press release that highlights different uses for business. There's no landing page that says "contact sales" or anything like that you'd see for an enterprisey specialized solution. In my mind the more plausible explanation is that Apple misjudged the pricing strategy for the Vision Pro, a device that it considers to be primarily a consumer content device. If the Vision Pro was a $1000 product they would have potentially had a hit. But I think what's going to happen is that Apple is going to have a product like that in 2026 and when it comes out the response is going to be quite muted.
        Nevermark 2y ago
        As a daily user of Apple Vision Pro, I can see the value of creating a much cheaper non-pro version. But I could also see the value of a comparably priced or even higher priced version, with ultra versions of their M chips, going all in as a Mac or MacBook upgrade in terms of user interface. I use mine as a MacBook Pro screen upgrade. I would love to dispense with the MacBook, while retaining Mac level (as apposition to limited iOS style) applications.

by dagmx 2y ago

> the Vision Pro’s sales up to this point justify discontinuation What are you basing this on though? From all accounts they’re pretty close to selling the number of units they could manufacture.

dangus 2y ago

I’m basing this on reports that it has not crossed the million unit sales number. Possibly just barely crossing the 500,000 mark right about now. These are sales that are on par with the Nintendo Virtual Boy. And if they can’t manufacture any more than that, they have an even bigger problem. It’s now been a year and a half since the first model was announced and there is no sign of a second model to move the product into a more mass appeal device. We saw critical follow-ups like the iPhone 3G and Apple Watch Series 1/2 come out as quick releases that were in retrospect very important to establishing a practical device that a regular person might consider buying. I think the fact that we haven’t seen one yet is a huge problem. If Apple couldn’t make another leap in a calendar year it’s clear that they will never catch up to Meta. Meta is out there selling a gazillion Quest 3S bundles to your local Costco impulse buyer.

dagmx 2y ago
I suspect your expectations for sales are much loftier than Apple’s. The million sales mark was from one single report by Kuo. Kuo himself previously said they were limited to ~900K display units which is ~450K devices and other analysts have said the same. There is no other source saying 1M was the target that I know of that doesn’t trace back to Kuo. If they are at ~500K units then they’ve exceeded the initial sales target that Kuo himself laid out. For your second point about a follow up, you’re comparing product announcement to product launches. The product itself only launched 10months ago. You’re expecting a second iteration within 10 months, of an entirely new product class for them ? Meanwhile other more popular Apple products often go longer between releases. Even Meta are around two years between products within a device class. Your last point of comparing to a meta quest is misplaced too. They’re different classes of the same device category. There’s no way Apple are expecting to compete with a device a tenth of its price for total sales.
- aprilthird2021 2y ago
  But the products are not 10x different in quality and especially there is not 10x more content on the AVP than the Quest
  - dagmx 2y ago
    If all you care about is gaming, perhaps. But there’s a lot of areas where the Vision Pro is a better product to the point where the price difference is irrelevant. Much like professional cameras aren’t actually 10x the features of prosumer cameras, yet command a higher price because of what they enable at the high end. Industrial and medical use, creative platforms etc, Literally the only other headsets I can use for the lines of work I’m involved with are 4x the price of the Vision Pro (the Varjo XRs), yet by your metric wouldn’t be worthwhile. And this is the problem with people who don’t consider usecases beyond their own.
    - dangus 2y ago
      So Apple, the company that doesn't sell an enterprise cloud computing platform and doesn't sell a business productivity suite wants to sell the Vision Pro to specialized industries? Excuse me for being very skeptical. I don't see a whole lot of Apple marketing material talking about the Vision Pro as a professional device. They have a grand total of one press release that highlights different uses for business. There's no landing page that says "contact sales" or anything like that you'd see for an enterprisey specialized solution. In my mind the more plausible explanation is that Apple misjudged the pricing strategy for the Vision Pro, a device that it considers to be primarily a consumer content device. If the Vision Pro was a $1000 product they would have potentially had a hit. But I think what's going to happen is that Apple is going to have a product like that in 2026 and when it comes out the response is going to be quite muted.
      - Nevermark 2y ago
        As a daily user of Apple Vision Pro, I can see the value of creating a much cheaper non-pro version. But I could also see the value of a comparably priced or even higher priced version, with ultra versions of their M chips, going all in as a Mac or MacBook upgrade in terms of user interface. I use mine as a MacBook Pro screen upgrade. I would love to dispense with the MacBook, while retaining Mac level (as apposition to limited iOS style) applications.