You are right that Kelly criterion deals with binary results. This won't work for poker. In poker, we use expected value because wins and losses are not binary

You are right that Kelly criterion deals with binary results. This won't work for poker. In poker, we use expected value because wins and losses are not binary because of the amount you win or lose. Once you figure out your approximate EV, you use a variance calculator in addition to that (example: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/) to see how likely and how much it is you will be winning over a certain number of hands in the long run.