3 ms·

I didn't calculate anything I just put in an address and a monthly electricity bill. https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/ https://sunroof.withgoogle.com/

Retric 2y ago
Ahh, ok the tool sucks it doesn’t seem to calculate based on your current cost per kWh or the local cost per kWh. It’s ignoring inflation on those calculations, acting like your electric bill will be the same in 20 years. It’s also ignoring residual value in the system after 20 years they typically last 25-30, and you don’t pay taxes on savings. There install estimates where also really high for my area, but I don’t know if that’s a general issue.
- patrickhogan1 2y ago
  Your electric bill 20 years from now is just as likely to go down as it is to go up. In two decades, we could see advancements like mobile generators offering free power, ultra-affordable battery packs delivered to homes to meet energy needs, or even the widespread adoption of low-cost fusion energy. The key takeaway is that predicting the future cost of electricity is as challenging as it was to predict today’s solar energy costs—now far lower than anyone expected.
  - Retric 2y ago
    None of what you just said is even vaguely realistic. Prices can’t drop below zero but they can easily more than double, so even if you assume equal odds in either direction it doesn’t cancel out. Worse, any physical device is going to have a cost to produce it which requires charging people to use it thus they can’t even drop to 0. Beyond that none of their prices or timelines are accurate, even ignoring the issues with inflation.
  - bagels 2y ago
    When did PGE prices ever go down?
    - patrickhogan1 2y ago
      Neither option I mentioned would require PGE or a centralized entity. Both options would be off-grid.
  - throwaway2037 2y ago
    > mobile generators offering free power Wow, where is this magical place? I want to move there. :)
    - patrickhogan1 2y ago
      Mobile Solar Generator Feasibility With solar technology, powering a home with a mobile generator is possible. Yes, the generator and batteries will have associated costs, but the long-term benefits make it worthwhile. This assumes uninterrupted access to sunlight over the next 20 years without new restrictions. Key Considerations: Energy Need: The average home uses 30 kWh/day, requiring 6 kW/hour over 5 peak sunlight hours. Multijunction Panels: Lab efficiencies are already at 47% (2023), and with 20 years of progress, 60% efficiency is probable. Efficiency Impact: At 60% efficiency, panels generate 600 W/m², requiring 10 m² (e.g., 2 m × 5 m) to meet energy needs. This size fits on most home roofs or could be mounted on a pole or hung through an apartment window. System Components: High-efficiency solar panels. 30 kWh battery storage for nighttime or cloudy days. An inverter to convert solar DC power to home AC power. Outcome: A mobile solar generator with advanced panels and efficient storage provides a sustainable and portable solution for powering homes.
      - Retric 2y ago
        Doing that is what installing solar is So you’re assuming the big competition for home solar is… home solar but ignoring what makes home solar expensive (permits, electricians, tariffs etc panels are already shockingly cheap). Installing solar in 15 years also means you’ve lost 15 years of cheap solar power and are buying panels after inflation, waiting just hasn’t seen instillation costs drop for a while. But you’re also wildly mistaken about the rest, it’s not actually 47% or now 47.1% efficient when placed outside. Panels get more efficient as extreme levels of light so people going after records create wildly irrelevant numbers as a dick measuring contest. Further the day someone invents 60% efficient panels isn’t the day we put those suckers into mass production we hit 40% in 2006, but they are nowhere near commercially viable for home installations. We might see widespread use of 60% efficient panels long after we’re dead, but that’s not exactly relevant for these calculations.
  - r00fus 2y ago
    Now you're sounding all pie in the sky. The cold hard reality is that hedge funds and billionaires control most power utilities and lobby governments to keep the cash flowing. We know for certain that pricing is going to get really bad in CA due to a 2022 law that permits PG&E and other utilities to charge large connection fees based on your income (will probably hit in 2026). I would gladly be the counterparty to any wager that 20 years from now electricity is going to be cheaper.
notatoad 2y ago
sunroof was a 2015 project. if they haven't adjusted their cost estimates since they launched it, it could be wildly overestimating things.
- gloflo 2y ago
  Same for panel efficiency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency#/media/File%3ANREL_PV_Cell_Record_Efficiency_Chart.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency#/media...

Retric 2y ago

Ahh, ok the tool sucks it doesn’t seem to calculate based on your current cost per kWh or the local cost per kWh. It’s ignoring inflation on those calculations, acting like your electric bill will be the same in 20 years. It’s also ignoring residual value in the system after 20 years they typically last 25-30, and you don’t pay taxes on savings. There install estimates where also really high for my area, but I don’t know if that’s a general issue.

patrickhogan1 2y ago
Your electric bill 20 years from now is just as likely to go down as it is to go up. In two decades, we could see advancements like mobile generators offering free power, ultra-affordable battery packs delivered to homes to meet energy needs, or even the widespread adoption of low-cost fusion energy. The key takeaway is that predicting the future cost of electricity is as challenging as it was to predict today’s solar energy costs—now far lower than anyone expected.
- Retric 2y ago
  None of what you just said is even vaguely realistic. Prices can’t drop below zero but they can easily more than double, so even if you assume equal odds in either direction it doesn’t cancel out. Worse, any physical device is going to have a cost to produce it which requires charging people to use it thus they can’t even drop to 0. Beyond that none of their prices or timelines are accurate, even ignoring the issues with inflation.
- bagels 2y ago
  When did PGE prices ever go down?
  - patrickhogan1 2y ago
    Neither option I mentioned would require PGE or a centralized entity. Both options would be off-grid.
- throwaway2037 2y ago
  > mobile generators offering free power Wow, where is this magical place? I want to move there. :)
  - patrickhogan1 2y ago
    Mobile Solar Generator Feasibility With solar technology, powering a home with a mobile generator is possible. Yes, the generator and batteries will have associated costs, but the long-term benefits make it worthwhile. This assumes uninterrupted access to sunlight over the next 20 years without new restrictions. Key Considerations: Energy Need: The average home uses 30 kWh/day, requiring 6 kW/hour over 5 peak sunlight hours. Multijunction Panels: Lab efficiencies are already at 47% (2023), and with 20 years of progress, 60% efficiency is probable. Efficiency Impact: At 60% efficiency, panels generate 600 W/m², requiring 10 m² (e.g., 2 m × 5 m) to meet energy needs. This size fits on most home roofs or could be mounted on a pole or hung through an apartment window. System Components: High-efficiency solar panels. 30 kWh battery storage for nighttime or cloudy days. An inverter to convert solar DC power to home AC power. Outcome: A mobile solar generator with advanced panels and efficient storage provides a sustainable and portable solution for powering homes.
    - Retric 2y ago
      Doing that is what installing solar is So you’re assuming the big competition for home solar is… home solar but ignoring what makes home solar expensive (permits, electricians, tariffs etc panels are already shockingly cheap). Installing solar in 15 years also means you’ve lost 15 years of cheap solar power and are buying panels after inflation, waiting just hasn’t seen instillation costs drop for a while. But you’re also wildly mistaken about the rest, it’s not actually 47% or now 47.1% efficient when placed outside. Panels get more efficient as extreme levels of light so people going after records create wildly irrelevant numbers as a dick measuring contest. Further the day someone invents 60% efficient panels isn’t the day we put those suckers into mass production we hit 40% in 2006, but they are nowhere near commercially viable for home installations. We might see widespread use of 60% efficient panels long after we’re dead, but that’s not exactly relevant for these calculations.
- r00fus 2y ago
  Now you're sounding all pie in the sky. The cold hard reality is that hedge funds and billionaires control most power utilities and lobby governments to keep the cash flowing. We know for certain that pricing is going to get really bad in CA due to a 2022 law that permits PG&E and other utilities to charge large connection fees based on your income (will probably hit in 2026). I would gladly be the counterparty to any wager that 20 years from now electricity is going to be cheaper.

notatoad 2y ago

sunroof was a 2015 project. if they haven't adjusted their cost estimates since they launched it, it could be wildly overestimating things.

gloflo 2y ago
Same for panel efficiency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency#/media/File%3ANREL_PV_Cell_Record_Efficiency_Chart.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency#/media...