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“The big picture: The U.S. is in the grips of a housing affordability crisis — creating huge financial headaches for many Americans” This is just not true. Tal

“The big picture: The U.S. is in the grips of a housing affordability crisis — creating huge financial headaches for many Americans” This is just not true. Talking point being pushed by some group, I’m guessing those lobbying for subsidized housing programs. There’s an “affordability crisis” for ultra desirable locations, but across most of America, there’s plenty of underwhelming but functional housing to be had.

redserk 2y ago
Typically these desirable places have optional amenities that people want, like jobs. Not many tech positions available in Huntington, WV.
- ethagknight 2y ago
  Pretty much every major US city besides NYC, LA, and SF is dealing with a massive over supply of multifamily housing
  - selimthegrim 2y ago
    New Orleans would like a word.
    - ethagknight 2y ago
      New Orleans is hovering around 92% occupancy across the market at $1,273/mo average rent. Plenty of room for both to compress. Very healthy. https://mmgrea.com/new-orleans-2q-2024-report/ https://mmgrea.com/new-orleans-2q-2024-report/
      - selimthegrim 2y ago
        Have you looked up the average wage in Orleans Parish lately? Before the pandemic and Hurricane Ida, $1100/month was about the breakeven cost basis for one side of a shotgun. But I will read this report. Thank you for the reference. e: from your link - “Conversely, demand for workforce housing assets—which constitute about 37% of New Orleans’ apartment inventory—remains weak, indicating financial strain among lower-income households in the area. Construction Trends Construction has slowed significantly in the New Orleans multifamily market in recent quarters. The current pipeline of 752 units under construction represents just 1.1% of the existing rental housing stock, starkly contrasting with the national average of 4.0%. This limited construction is evident in the trailing 12-month total of new deliveries, which amounted to a modest 82 units”
        ethagknight 2y ago
        NOLA is a unique market for sure but I’m told it’s had a difficult run. Weak demand across the middle market could mean a lot of things. I am not sure on the proposed correlation between lower income strain, my better guess is that it comes down to desirability of school district(s). Low “workforce” demand indicating bad public school options, only the rich sending to private schools and the poor taking what they can get.
  - mcntsh 2y ago
    Objectively untrue.
    - ethagknight 2y ago
      You want to provide citation or just say you are objective? Look at any major nation-wide multifamily housing market report. Not a crisis. It's just expensive in the most desirable locations. CBRE's headline: Slight Apartment Oversupply Expected in 2024 (oversupply means vacancy drops below the industry target of ~93%) >>The biggest wave of new apartment supply in decades will temper rent growth and improve affordability for renters in 2024. With delivery of 440,000 new units expected in 2024 and more than 900,000 currently under construction, the overall vacancy rate is expected to rise and rent growth to decelerate. https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2024/multifamily https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-ou...
  - nothercastle 2y ago
    Seattle needs way more housing. Every Major metro that’s growing needs more. Only oversupply is in dead zones
    - ethagknight 2y ago
      Looks like Puget Sound market is running 93% occupancy, with 392,000 total apartment units in the market, thats 27,000 vacant units today. Very healthy market but not a crisis. https://simonandersonteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-Q4-Puget-Sound-Market-Study_Simon-Anderson-Team.pdf https://simonandersonteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/202...
      - nothercastle 2y ago
        There is a finite limit to occupancy because turn around between tenants has to happen. 93% is probably the equivalent of completely full.
        ethagknight 2y ago
        It’s not, 93% indicates a healthy market that is priced right between renters and landlords. My core objection is to the article stating “everyone knows there’s an affordability crisis” and I am saying there is not a crisis, its a manufactured talking point. For larger professionally (~50+ unit) managed facilities, which is what those reports track and is also what i do for a living, we can turn over very quickly and push much tighter, 98% when possible. 93% occupancy on a typical 200 unit property is 14 units vacant for an entire month, which is unacceptable if there is pent up demand.
        nothercastle 2y ago
        What’s the optimal point for pricing? Is it better to fill to 98 and charge less or fill to 93 and charge more? We had some finds that lived in some odd the downtown units and their occupancy rate was quite low 70-80% because they were charging way above what people were willing to pay but they never adjusted. There are other factors at play that might be affecting average fill rate. Different plays seem to optimize for different rates.
cyberax 2y ago
Why is the parent downvoted? It's the truth. The US is near the all-time high record high number of housing units per capita. We'll likely exceed it some time within the next 2 years. There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations.
- Gigachad 2y ago
  People per dwelling has gone down quite a lot over the years so even with more houses per capita housing still a pretty constrained resource.
  - cyberax 2y ago
    I mean... If housing is available, why would you want to live in crowded conditions? Housing per family (household) is also near the all-time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15tRv https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15tRv
- ethagknight 2y ago
  In a nutshell, people paying super high rents in elite locations believe there’s a housing shortage and believe they should get assistance for living in super desirable locations. Calling it a crisis is disingenuous at best. Specifically calling a “affordability crisis” instead of “availability crisis” is telling. People being unwilling to live with a roommate(s) is the biggest driver here. Rent controls are also a significant factor driving market imbalances. Yes of course growing areas need more housing, but it’s not a crisis.
- SR2Z 2y ago
  > The US is near the all-time high record high number of housing units per capita. And that would be a reasonable thing to say if housing was a national issue, but it's not. It's always been a local and regional issue. The United States does not benefit by moving people into decrepit houses in the Midwest. People should live where there are jobs and opportunities - they should CHOOSE where they live. The individual regions of the United States with extreme housing prices are NOT near record housing per capita levels. They've dramatically underbuilt compared to how they've grown. > There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations. Any kind of regional issue is a "density crisis" by this logic. Shortage of plumbers? "Density crisis." Hurricane hit the town and now a lot of people need to be rescued? "Density crisis." Sewer line burst and now it smells? "Density crisis." This is a shortage of housing where people need it. If your entire point rests on you pretending "housing shortage" means something else, well... that's not very convincing.

redserk 2y ago

Typically these desirable places have optional amenities that people want, like jobs. Not many tech positions available in Huntington, WV.

ethagknight 2y ago
Pretty much every major US city besides NYC, LA, and SF is dealing with a massive over supply of multifamily housing
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  New Orleans would like a word.
  - ethagknight 2y ago
    New Orleans is hovering around 92% occupancy across the market at $1,273/mo average rent. Plenty of room for both to compress. Very healthy. https://mmgrea.com/new-orleans-2q-2024-report/ https://mmgrea.com/new-orleans-2q-2024-report/
    - selimthegrim 2y ago
      Have you looked up the average wage in Orleans Parish lately? Before the pandemic and Hurricane Ida, $1100/month was about the breakeven cost basis for one side of a shotgun. But I will read this report. Thank you for the reference. e: from your link - “Conversely, demand for workforce housing assets—which constitute about 37% of New Orleans’ apartment inventory—remains weak, indicating financial strain among lower-income households in the area. Construction Trends Construction has slowed significantly in the New Orleans multifamily market in recent quarters. The current pipeline of 752 units under construction represents just 1.1% of the existing rental housing stock, starkly contrasting with the national average of 4.0%. This limited construction is evident in the trailing 12-month total of new deliveries, which amounted to a modest 82 units”
      - ethagknight 2y ago
        NOLA is a unique market for sure but I’m told it’s had a difficult run. Weak demand across the middle market could mean a lot of things. I am not sure on the proposed correlation between lower income strain, my better guess is that it comes down to desirability of school district(s). Low “workforce” demand indicating bad public school options, only the rich sending to private schools and the poor taking what they can get.
- mcntsh 2y ago
  Objectively untrue.
  - ethagknight 2y ago
    You want to provide citation or just say you are objective? Look at any major nation-wide multifamily housing market report. Not a crisis. It's just expensive in the most desirable locations. CBRE's headline: Slight Apartment Oversupply Expected in 2024 (oversupply means vacancy drops below the industry target of ~93%) >>The biggest wave of new apartment supply in decades will temper rent growth and improve affordability for renters in 2024. With delivery of 440,000 new units expected in 2024 and more than 900,000 currently under construction, the overall vacancy rate is expected to rise and rent growth to decelerate. https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2024/multifamily https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-ou...
- nothercastle 2y ago
  Seattle needs way more housing. Every Major metro that’s growing needs more. Only oversupply is in dead zones
  - ethagknight 2y ago
    Looks like Puget Sound market is running 93% occupancy, with 392,000 total apartment units in the market, thats 27,000 vacant units today. Very healthy market but not a crisis. https://simonandersonteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-Q4-Puget-Sound-Market-Study_Simon-Anderson-Team.pdf https://simonandersonteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/202...
    - nothercastle 2y ago
      There is a finite limit to occupancy because turn around between tenants has to happen. 93% is probably the equivalent of completely full.
      - ethagknight 2y ago
        It’s not, 93% indicates a healthy market that is priced right between renters and landlords. My core objection is to the article stating “everyone knows there’s an affordability crisis” and I am saying there is not a crisis, its a manufactured talking point. For larger professionally (~50+ unit) managed facilities, which is what those reports track and is also what i do for a living, we can turn over very quickly and push much tighter, 98% when possible. 93% occupancy on a typical 200 unit property is 14 units vacant for an entire month, which is unacceptable if there is pent up demand.
        nothercastle 2y ago
        What’s the optimal point for pricing? Is it better to fill to 98 and charge less or fill to 93 and charge more? We had some finds that lived in some odd the downtown units and their occupancy rate was quite low 70-80% because they were charging way above what people were willing to pay but they never adjusted. There are other factors at play that might be affecting average fill rate. Different plays seem to optimize for different rates.

cyberax 2y ago

Why is the parent downvoted? It's the truth. The US is near the all-time high record high number of housing units per capita. We'll likely exceed it some time within the next 2 years. There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations.

Gigachad 2y ago
People per dwelling has gone down quite a lot over the years so even with more houses per capita housing still a pretty constrained resource.
- cyberax 2y ago
  I mean... If housing is available, why would you want to live in crowded conditions? Housing per family (household) is also near the all-time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15tRv https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15tRv
ethagknight 2y ago
In a nutshell, people paying super high rents in elite locations believe there’s a housing shortage and believe they should get assistance for living in super desirable locations. Calling it a crisis is disingenuous at best. Specifically calling a “affordability crisis” instead of “availability crisis” is telling. People being unwilling to live with a roommate(s) is the biggest driver here. Rent controls are also a significant factor driving market imbalances. Yes of course growing areas need more housing, but it’s not a crisis.
SR2Z 2y ago
> The US is near the all-time high record high number of housing units per capita. And that would be a reasonable thing to say if housing was a national issue, but it's not. It's always been a local and regional issue. The United States does not benefit by moving people into decrepit houses in the Midwest. People should live where there are jobs and opportunities - they should CHOOSE where they live. The individual regions of the United States with extreme housing prices are NOT near record housing per capita levels. They've dramatically underbuilt compared to how they've grown. > There is absolutely no housing crisis of any kind. There is a _density_ crisis, that is forcing people into unaffordable locations. Any kind of regional issue is a "density crisis" by this logic. Shortage of plumbers? "Density crisis." Hurricane hit the town and now a lot of people need to be rescued? "Density crisis." Sewer line burst and now it smells? "Density crisis." This is a shortage of housing where people need it. If your entire point rests on you pretending "housing shortage" means something else, well... that's not very convincing.