4 ms·

Most of the world is facing affordability problems. A $3500 helmet is not top of mind for anyone. Apple isn't going throw money at this for much longer I feel.

by rchaud 2y ago

Most of the world is facing affordability problems. A $3500 helmet is not top of mind for anyone. Apple isn't going throw money at this for much longer I feel. Immersive videos are not a selling point when considering the tradeoffs of using a headset.

sneak 2y ago
I feel like people forget that hardware takes 3-4 years to bring to market. This is so that people can begin making content for the Apple AR headset that comes out 3 years from now, not the $3500 devkit.
- philmcc 2y ago
  Thank you for having one of the few reasonable takes on the Vision Pro. People also forget how bleak the iPad app market was for the first year or so. They also forget that VR has existed for the quest for the better part of 12 years and there are .... 4? 5? very good apps. Even now there's nothing -incredibly- compelling for the Quest. I'm not a hater, I've owned 5 of them starting at DK1.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    The iPad cost 14% of what AVP does, so comparisons to it are largely meaningless. iPads took off because a huge population of grandparents and kids had a use case for it....Netflix, Youtube and Newspapers on a device that's less complicated and cheaper than a full computer. No such equivalent exists for AVP, it's a new type of device for pretty much everybody.
- rchaud 2y ago
  If it was a dev kit, they could have simply kept it under wraps and provided beta access to gauge developer interest, instead of the usual overwrought keynote. Who builds half a million units of a dev kit? Some stuff you can just tell is going to flop. This is one of them. Apple still doesn't get that people dont want to put on highly conspicuous headsets to watch a movie or play a game, they're fine using a phone or tablet for that. Zuckerberg still pretends like he didnt spend 2 years and untold billions trying to will Horizon Worlds into relevance. Similarly, nobody talks about immersive video on AVP as some kind of gamechanger, not even the usual Apple consumer strategy whisperers like Daring Fireball.
  - sneak 2y ago
    No, there’s no way to keep a devkit like that under wraps. This is a 5-10 year strategy, not a 1-2 year one.
    - rchaud 2y ago
      We're several years into that process already then. Apple researched this space for years and their first released product was a giant flop with no developer interest. Apple famously doesn't release anything until they "get it right". So the sound of crickets after an Apple event is already a warning sign. The closer you get to that 5-10 years, the more these types of capital intensive projects start looking non-viable (think Apple EV) compared to cash cows like the App Store and iCloud.
      - parasubvert 2y ago
        How is the AVP a giant flop? They're largely supply constrained by Sony. The plan was to sell a few hundred thousand units. Which they have.
  - parasubvert 2y ago
    Almost everyone that has experienced AVP immersive video has absolutely described it as a game changer.
    - rchaud 2y ago
      And yet it sits unsold on store shelves. A "gamechanger" in Apple-ese means tens of millions of units shifted. Apple is in the business of selling Big Macs, not wagyu steaks. Apple is not Sony, who were happy to keep investing in their ecosystem even if people didn't buy it (Betamax, MiniDisc, GPS addon for the PSP).
      - parasubvert 2y ago
        "And yet it sits unsold on store shelves. " Citation needed. The AVP is priced for supply constraints. 'A "gamechanger" in Apple-ese means tens of millions of units shifted' Not at all. That may be an external party's definition of success. It is not Apple's. "Apple is in the business of selling Big Macs, not wagyu steaks." I can't even begin to describe how wrong this statement is, even based on a cursory glance of their current product line.
sroussey 2y ago
The original Mac was $17000 in today’s dollars and people said the same thing.
- knifie_spoonie 2y ago
  Did you accidentally type an extra 1 there? The original Macintosh launched at $2.5K which is a bit over $7K in today's dollars.
  - sroussey 2y ago
    Accidental 1 in front. I really should type comments in my phone…
- rchaud 2y ago
  The original Mac had the benefit of being a computer, a pre-existing product category that people were familiar with, and already purchasing in growing numbers.

by rchaud 2y ago

sneak 2y ago

I feel like people forget that hardware takes 3-4 years to bring to market. This is so that people can begin making content for the Apple AR headset that comes out 3 years from now, not the $3500 devkit.

philmcc 2y ago
Thank you for having one of the few reasonable takes on the Vision Pro. People also forget how bleak the iPad app market was for the first year or so. They also forget that VR has existed for the quest for the better part of 12 years and there are .... 4? 5? very good apps. Even now there's nothing -incredibly- compelling for the Quest. I'm not a hater, I've owned 5 of them starting at DK1.
- rchaud 2y ago
  The iPad cost 14% of what AVP does, so comparisons to it are largely meaningless. iPads took off because a huge population of grandparents and kids had a use case for it....Netflix, Youtube and Newspapers on a device that's less complicated and cheaper than a full computer. No such equivalent exists for AVP, it's a new type of device for pretty much everybody.
rchaud 2y ago
If it was a dev kit, they could have simply kept it under wraps and provided beta access to gauge developer interest, instead of the usual overwrought keynote. Who builds half a million units of a dev kit? Some stuff you can just tell is going to flop. This is one of them. Apple still doesn't get that people dont want to put on highly conspicuous headsets to watch a movie or play a game, they're fine using a phone or tablet for that. Zuckerberg still pretends like he didnt spend 2 years and untold billions trying to will Horizon Worlds into relevance. Similarly, nobody talks about immersive video on AVP as some kind of gamechanger, not even the usual Apple consumer strategy whisperers like Daring Fireball.
- sneak 2y ago
  No, there’s no way to keep a devkit like that under wraps. This is a 5-10 year strategy, not a 1-2 year one.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    We're several years into that process already then. Apple researched this space for years and their first released product was a giant flop with no developer interest. Apple famously doesn't release anything until they "get it right". So the sound of crickets after an Apple event is already a warning sign. The closer you get to that 5-10 years, the more these types of capital intensive projects start looking non-viable (think Apple EV) compared to cash cows like the App Store and iCloud.
    - parasubvert 2y ago
      How is the AVP a giant flop? They're largely supply constrained by Sony. The plan was to sell a few hundred thousand units. Which they have.
- parasubvert 2y ago
  Almost everyone that has experienced AVP immersive video has absolutely described it as a game changer.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    And yet it sits unsold on store shelves. A "gamechanger" in Apple-ese means tens of millions of units shifted. Apple is in the business of selling Big Macs, not wagyu steaks. Apple is not Sony, who were happy to keep investing in their ecosystem even if people didn't buy it (Betamax, MiniDisc, GPS addon for the PSP).
    - parasubvert 2y ago
      "And yet it sits unsold on store shelves. " Citation needed. The AVP is priced for supply constraints. 'A "gamechanger" in Apple-ese means tens of millions of units shifted' Not at all. That may be an external party's definition of success. It is not Apple's. "Apple is in the business of selling Big Macs, not wagyu steaks." I can't even begin to describe how wrong this statement is, even based on a cursory glance of their current product line.

sroussey 2y ago

The original Mac was $17000 in today’s dollars and people said the same thing.

knifie_spoonie 2y ago
Did you accidentally type an extra 1 there? The original Macintosh launched at $2.5K which is a bit over $7K in today's dollars.
- sroussey 2y ago
  Accidental 1 in front. I really should type comments in my phone…
rchaud 2y ago
The original Mac had the benefit of being a computer, a pre-existing product category that people were familiar with, and already purchasing in growing numbers.