5 ms·

Are you implying the Vison Pro ecosystem is dead and Apple will abandon it? Sometimes the supporting hardware takes time to manifest itself.

by mycall 2y ago

jl6 2y ago
At the current price point, the AVP is destined to achieve a market position similar to LaserDisc.
- jsheard 2y ago
  It's obviously going to get cheaper, but rumor is the second generation will only get the price down to about $2000 which is still well above the "lol nope" threshold for most people. Third times the charm? https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/13/apple-might-release-a-2000-vision-headset-next-year/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/13/apple-might-release-a-2000...
  - jl6 2y ago
    Hopefully, but I don't think it's obvious. We don't seem to be currently in an era of plummeting hardware prices.
  - dmarcos 2y ago
    “VR will become something everyone wants before it becomes something everyone can afford” Palmer Luckey People that bought Vision Pro at $3,500 they are not using it all that much. A lower price will just result in more headsets gathering dust. VR has no product-market fit except for a couple of game niches. Far from the “next computing platform” that justified investment of tens of billions of dollars a year. Headsets and platforms need fundamental rethinking before optimizing for price.
    - parasubvert 2y ago
      This is false. People that bought Vision Pro are often using it for multiple hours a day. I am sure some collect dust, but many are heavily used. The Meta Quest is outselling the Xbox series. VR clearly has product market fit, but it doesn't yet have iPhone or iPad levels of market fit.
      - kridsdale1 2y ago
        And maybe it just… won’t. We shouldn’t use that as the stick. Sometimes it’s ok to make Lamborghini and it’s not a failure to say it has less owners than the Corolla.
        dmarcos 2y ago
        Making a niche product is fine but that’s not the “next computing platform” that justifies $16B/year investment by Meta alone.
      - dmarcos 2y ago
        You have data to back up your claim that “Vision Pro owners are using it often multiple hours a day? That’s a shrinking tiny fraction of AVP buyers based on my experience. I’ve been in the industry for a decade. I have an AVP, know many other owners and devs with published apps. I’m myself the dev of moonrider: most popular WebXR application so see the industry numbers. Also sales /= usage and retention. Engagement is what you need to grow a platform. Your numbers about XBox sales might be true for a brief period of time between Quest2 and Quest3 releases. Still what matters is engagement and retention. As mentioned only product-market (albeit niche) fit for VR has been some games subgenres. Can you point to any other applications with significant numbers?
        parasubvert 2y ago
        > You have data to back up your claim that “Vision Pro owners are using it often multiple hours a day? That’s a shrinking tiny fraction of AVP buyers based on my experience. I’ve been in the industry for a decade. I have an AVP, know many other owners and devs with published apps. I’m myself the dev of moonrider: most popular WebXR application so see the industry numbers. I have no more data than you do when you say a "shrinking tiny fraction" of AVP buyers. I've been in the industry for 30 years. We both have our anecdata.
        dmarcos 2y ago
        Do you currently have any published content on any platform? Burden of proof is on the one making a claim. One of the signs of product-market fit is word of mouth organic growth. I’m a dev with published content and know a plethora of other devs. None seeing significant growth or improved retention. If you’re right the evidence is really hidden. Any forum or community where I can talk to the users that are using AVP a ton?
n144q 2y ago
takes time -- how long are we talking about here? Vision Pro has been released for near a year now. I don't think it got the traction that's anywhere close to the hype when it was first announced. Not even among VR enthusiasts, let alone the mass consumer market. There is an Apple Store near where I live. When I walk by it, 9 out of 10 times there is nobody around the Vision Pro booth, when many people are playing with iPhones and iPads.
- jsheard 2y ago
  The Vision Pro also doesn't exist in a vacuum - Meta have spent much longer trying to make this work, with hardware that's literally an order of magnitude more affordable, and are still struggling to find any mainstream adoption.
- atrus 2y ago
  Honestly, I'd say that the vision pro is going to get less traction with VR enthusiasts because it's not that much better in some respects, and much worse in many others. The vision pro is much more suited to people who haven't used any VR before.
  - wrboyce 2y ago
    Have you used an AVP? I am surprised at your claims. My friend has one and I’ve got a Quest 2 and I was absolutely blown away by the AVP, significantly better VR experience in my opinion.
    - numpad0 2y ago
      Then why haven't you switched - I mean, how would you replace your existing VR use cases with Vision Pro as an upgrade, not mere same ballpark alternative with workarounds, set aside its upfront price?
      - wrboyce 2y ago
        Bit of a weird “gotcha” this to be honest, but I don’t use my Quest all that often and the AVP is too expensive for my taste.
rchaud 2y ago
Most of the world is facing affordability problems. A $3500 helmet is not top of mind for anyone. Apple isn't going throw money at this for much longer I feel. Immersive videos are not a selling point when considering the tradeoffs of using a headset.
- sneak 2y ago
  I feel like people forget that hardware takes 3-4 years to bring to market. This is so that people can begin making content for the Apple AR headset that comes out 3 years from now, not the $3500 devkit.
  - philmcc 2y ago
    Thank you for having one of the few reasonable takes on the Vision Pro. People also forget how bleak the iPad app market was for the first year or so. They also forget that VR has existed for the quest for the better part of 12 years and there are .... 4? 5? very good apps. Even now there's nothing -incredibly- compelling for the Quest. I'm not a hater, I've owned 5 of them starting at DK1.
    - rchaud 2y ago
      The iPad cost 14% of what AVP does, so comparisons to it are largely meaningless. iPads took off because a huge population of grandparents and kids had a use case for it....Netflix, Youtube and Newspapers on a device that's less complicated and cheaper than a full computer. No such equivalent exists for AVP, it's a new type of device for pretty much everybody.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    If it was a dev kit, they could have simply kept it under wraps and provided beta access to gauge developer interest, instead of the usual overwrought keynote. Who builds half a million units of a dev kit? Some stuff you can just tell is going to flop. This is one of them. Apple still doesn't get that people dont want to put on highly conspicuous headsets to watch a movie or play a game, they're fine using a phone or tablet for that. Zuckerberg still pretends like he didnt spend 2 years and untold billions trying to will Horizon Worlds into relevance. Similarly, nobody talks about immersive video on AVP as some kind of gamechanger, not even the usual Apple consumer strategy whisperers like Daring Fireball.
MetaWhirledPeas 2y ago
You also have the Meta Quest 3 trucking along. That one is desperate for higher-quality 3D videos.

Are you implying the Vison Pro ecosystem is dead and Apple will abandon it? Sometimes the supporting hardware takes time to manifest itself.

by mycall 2y ago

Are you implying the Vison Pro ecosystem is dead and Apple will abandon it? Sometimes the supporting hardware takes time to manifest itself.

jl6 2y ago

At the current price point, the AVP is destined to achieve a market position similar to LaserDisc.

jsheard 2y ago
It's obviously going to get cheaper, but rumor is the second generation will only get the price down to about $2000 which is still well above the "lol nope" threshold for most people. Third times the charm? https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/13/apple-might-release-a-2000-vision-headset-next-year/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/13/apple-might-release-a-2000...
- jl6 2y ago
  Hopefully, but I don't think it's obvious. We don't seem to be currently in an era of plummeting hardware prices.
- dmarcos 2y ago
  “VR will become something everyone wants before it becomes something everyone can afford” Palmer Luckey People that bought Vision Pro at $3,500 they are not using it all that much. A lower price will just result in more headsets gathering dust. VR has no product-market fit except for a couple of game niches. Far from the “next computing platform” that justified investment of tens of billions of dollars a year. Headsets and platforms need fundamental rethinking before optimizing for price.
  - parasubvert 2y ago
    This is false. People that bought Vision Pro are often using it for multiple hours a day. I am sure some collect dust, but many are heavily used. The Meta Quest is outselling the Xbox series. VR clearly has product market fit, but it doesn't yet have iPhone or iPad levels of market fit.
    - kridsdale1 2y ago
      And maybe it just… won’t. We shouldn’t use that as the stick. Sometimes it’s ok to make Lamborghini and it’s not a failure to say it has less owners than the Corolla.
      - dmarcos 2y ago
        Making a niche product is fine but that’s not the “next computing platform” that justifies $16B/year investment by Meta alone.
    - dmarcos 2y ago
      You have data to back up your claim that “Vision Pro owners are using it often multiple hours a day? That’s a shrinking tiny fraction of AVP buyers based on my experience. I’ve been in the industry for a decade. I have an AVP, know many other owners and devs with published apps. I’m myself the dev of moonrider: most popular WebXR application so see the industry numbers. Also sales /= usage and retention. Engagement is what you need to grow a platform. Your numbers about XBox sales might be true for a brief period of time between Quest2 and Quest3 releases. Still what matters is engagement and retention. As mentioned only product-market (albeit niche) fit for VR has been some games subgenres. Can you point to any other applications with significant numbers?
      - parasubvert 2y ago
        > You have data to back up your claim that “Vision Pro owners are using it often multiple hours a day? That’s a shrinking tiny fraction of AVP buyers based on my experience. I’ve been in the industry for a decade. I have an AVP, know many other owners and devs with published apps. I’m myself the dev of moonrider: most popular WebXR application so see the industry numbers. I have no more data than you do when you say a "shrinking tiny fraction" of AVP buyers. I've been in the industry for 30 years. We both have our anecdata.
        dmarcos 2y ago
        Do you currently have any published content on any platform? Burden of proof is on the one making a claim. One of the signs of product-market fit is word of mouth organic growth. I’m a dev with published content and know a plethora of other devs. None seeing significant growth or improved retention. If you’re right the evidence is really hidden. Any forum or community where I can talk to the users that are using AVP a ton?

n144q 2y ago

takes time -- how long are we talking about here? Vision Pro has been released for near a year now. I don't think it got the traction that's anywhere close to the hype when it was first announced. Not even among VR enthusiasts, let alone the mass consumer market. There is an Apple Store near where I live. When I walk by it, 9 out of 10 times there is nobody around the Vision Pro booth, when many people are playing with iPhones and iPads.

jsheard 2y ago
The Vision Pro also doesn't exist in a vacuum - Meta have spent much longer trying to make this work, with hardware that's literally an order of magnitude more affordable, and are still struggling to find any mainstream adoption.
atrus 2y ago
Honestly, I'd say that the vision pro is going to get less traction with VR enthusiasts because it's not that much better in some respects, and much worse in many others. The vision pro is much more suited to people who haven't used any VR before.
- wrboyce 2y ago
  Have you used an AVP? I am surprised at your claims. My friend has one and I’ve got a Quest 2 and I was absolutely blown away by the AVP, significantly better VR experience in my opinion.
  - numpad0 2y ago
    Then why haven't you switched - I mean, how would you replace your existing VR use cases with Vision Pro as an upgrade, not mere same ballpark alternative with workarounds, set aside its upfront price?
    - wrboyce 2y ago
      Bit of a weird “gotcha” this to be honest, but I don’t use my Quest all that often and the AVP is too expensive for my taste.

rchaud 2y ago

Most of the world is facing affordability problems. A $3500 helmet is not top of mind for anyone. Apple isn't going throw money at this for much longer I feel. Immersive videos are not a selling point when considering the tradeoffs of using a headset.

sneak 2y ago
I feel like people forget that hardware takes 3-4 years to bring to market. This is so that people can begin making content for the Apple AR headset that comes out 3 years from now, not the $3500 devkit.
- philmcc 2y ago
  Thank you for having one of the few reasonable takes on the Vision Pro. People also forget how bleak the iPad app market was for the first year or so. They also forget that VR has existed for the quest for the better part of 12 years and there are .... 4? 5? very good apps. Even now there's nothing -incredibly- compelling for the Quest. I'm not a hater, I've owned 5 of them starting at DK1.
  - rchaud 2y ago
    The iPad cost 14% of what AVP does, so comparisons to it are largely meaningless. iPads took off because a huge population of grandparents and kids had a use case for it....Netflix, Youtube and Newspapers on a device that's less complicated and cheaper than a full computer. No such equivalent exists for AVP, it's a new type of device for pretty much everybody.
- rchaud 2y ago
  If it was a dev kit, they could have simply kept it under wraps and provided beta access to gauge developer interest, instead of the usual overwrought keynote. Who builds half a million units of a dev kit? Some stuff you can just tell is going to flop. This is one of them. Apple still doesn't get that people dont want to put on highly conspicuous headsets to watch a movie or play a game, they're fine using a phone or tablet for that. Zuckerberg still pretends like he didnt spend 2 years and untold billions trying to will Horizon Worlds into relevance. Similarly, nobody talks about immersive video on AVP as some kind of gamechanger, not even the usual Apple consumer strategy whisperers like Daring Fireball.

MetaWhirledPeas 2y ago

You also have the Meta Quest 3 trucking along. That one is desperate for higher-quality 3D videos.