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There is rather a lot of probability involved, and the odds change dramatically depending on the kind of business you’re trying to launch.
by yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
There is rather a lot of probability involved, and the odds change dramatically depending on the kind of business you’re trying to launch.
- liontwist 2y agoWhen you start making a product and trying to sell it when do the dice rolls come in?
- lazide 2y agoEvery step of the way. - right product? - right market segment? - right marketing? - right execution? - right scalability post basic execution? - right sales approach? - right post sales approach? All of these have 10 different paths (in reality), any of which if you take the wrong one could end up in some kind of expensive dead end or spectacular failure.
- BartjeD 2y agoYou are zooming out, and when you look at an abstraction from a distance it's easy to miss the details and just boil it down to probablities. The reality is that you measure and get information on all of these things to determine more accurately what odds you have. The act of measurement changes the probabilities, because if you do it right you will know more than you did before.
- johannes1234321 2y agoHowever the measurement has to be done right or it will mislead and will take time, which your competitor uses to overtake or at least counter you.
- lazide 2y agoAnd sometimes you start in a place (or take directions into a place) which put you at such a disadvantage with competitors that you can’t ‘win’. It’s rare you can know that while it’s happening though. In theory all these things are controllable and no problem is unsolvable. Sometimes it’s even true (post-facto however, more often than not). That view is often the best for succeeding (or more precisely, NOT having that view often puts one at a disadvantage when it comes to succeeding). But the probabilities are often the more accurate model. That is often the best model for deciding if you want to take a bet, or for comforting yourself later if it doesn’t actually work out perfectly. It really doesn’t help though (most of the time) with actually doing successfully.
- liontwist 2y agoProbability models are an attempt to cope with a lack of information. But you not having complete information doesn’t mean the world is like that.
- lazide 2y agoDo you think it’s possible for anyone to have all the information?