4 ms·

Why Facebook Will Have a Big 2009

21 points by astrec 18y ago

asnyder 18y ago
I really hope he's wrong. This is pretty scary stuff, to me anyway. The last company I would want to have all this power is facebook.
patio11 18y ago
Facebook will have a big 2009 because there is no time to have a business model based on not-charging poor college students like during the middle of the worst recession since the Great Depression.
nx 18y ago
So Facebook is the new Gmail? Gmail has a lot of power and they don't seem to have done anything bad, so far. It's the users who decide to give all this information to a site, and there is nothing we can do besides trusting them. Well, it's what the Internet is about: a lot of benefits, a lot of vulnerabilities. The cool site everybody signs up on can be Facebook, Google or whichever, but things are not going to change for some time.
mdasen 18y ago
Why blank will blank in 2009. The blank of 2008. Great time of year - when you can make absurd statements that no one remembers. So, I guess I'll join in on the fun. 1. Facebook continues to loose money at a rate that makes the government (really any government) look good. They quickly burn through their cash and raise more cash and then raise some more. Their growth is phenomenal, but it becomes apparent that they aren't quite able to monetize. 2. Facebook tries a bold new strategy of invasive advertising. Lots of analysis of all sorts of things that piss off users. 3. Alternative services create an interoperable system that doesn't suck. Users are able to create friend relationships across domains. All of a sudden, social-network lock-in crumbles. I think that last one is the coolest thought. There are things stopping an open network from working: 1. Logins. OpenID is poorly implemented - it should work like email. Put in your email address, get the format of the OpenID url by checking the domain part and then put the username together in the format specified by the site for login. Profit! Most banks already have a two screen authentication (first just username, then just password) so it's not so outrageous to think users won't accept that. 2. Friends. There needs to be a cross-service friend system. This isn't so hard to implement. We already have a unique ID (the OpenID/Email). So, now we can say, bill@microsoft.com is friends with steve@apple.com even if only steve has signed up for the service because we import the bill email address as an ID to the service when we sign-up/sync. Now, that's a SPAM haven. So, why not hash the first part. So, bill becomes xc78901@microsoft.com as the ID and when bill@microsoft.com signs up, we hash it to see the ID and realise that he's already friends with others using the service. Cool! That way, we can take our friend network with us to whatever service and have it sync up easily.
- siong1987 18y ago
  Prediction 4: In the end of 2010, Facebook loses too much money and no VC wants to back them anymore. They have more than 20,000 workers. Finally, they need bailout from the government. This prediction is made on the previous 3 predictions made by mdasen.
- Herring 18y ago
  "1. Facebook continues to loose money at a rate that makes the government (really any government) look good." Maybe they should tighten their grip.
eli_s 18y ago
One day facebook will have to work out the monetization issue. They have accepted loads of investor money, and all those investors will one day expect a very healthy return. I think their success in getting more investment money comes from the mindset that something this big can't fail. I'm really curious to see if they come up with a working solution.
sam_in_nyc 18y ago
Facebook Connect will make or break the company. If I can share what I do on other sites with my friends on Facebook (presumably people I know and/or care about), that's a value gain for both me and anyone adopting this, because I'm likely to use these other sites more often. If, on the other hand, Facebook Connect isn't well adopted or it's a miserable experience, the Facebook really is just one locked in social network, and someone will come along and connect my profile across all websites. Someone other than OpenID which is the most annoying login system devised. How is Facebook not already able to sell marketing information? Nobody wants to know which bands are suddenly becoming more popular (and where)? Or which movies are being looked forward to by which people?
- eli_s 18y ago
  Monetization will make or break Facebook. If they can pay investors back along with a healthy margin and continue to bring in revenue then they will stay. Personally I don't think there is enough advertising money available regardless of economic conditions to keep this behemoth afloat. I'd love to know what alternatives those clever FB MBAs are cooking up. How will FB Connect help pay the bills?
  - redorb 18y ago
    I really think it comes down to "The last sucker" to invest in facebook loses, I think facebook can't sell to anyone but microsoft because of their investment... and perhaps microsoft is waiting for the big crunch; then will get them at a really good price.
  - jganetsk 18y ago
    Monetization should make or break every company that ever existed. It's silly that there are companies that can't monetize but are considered "successful".
    - sam_in_nyc 18y ago
      I don't think it's too silly of a concept. You can imagine a company having several departments: some which lose money, and some which make money. The departments that don't "generate revenue" per se can still be beneficial to the company as a whole, perhaps they provide publicity, they're good PR, they good morale, etc... Those departments, even though they lose money, have value to that company. With start-ups you can make something profitable, and surely that's preferred because you get your money back sooner, or you can build something that has value to someone else. In the end, you need just need to build something with value.
volida 18y ago
get a life
markessien 18y ago
OpenID died last year. Anyone still hoping that OpenID will gain any traction is hopelessly shortsighted. Facebook will make money, that is the least problem. Facebook connect is going to evolve to merge with MySpace, WindowsLive, StudiVZ, Xiaonei identities. People no longer identify themselves by their email addresses, they do so by their social networking account, and he's right there. And people don't like changing their social network, they are too entrenched. Americans like to think that Facebook is so dominant, but lots of people like Hi5 and cannot imagine using anything else, because their friends are all there. There will come a system where people can sign-in anywhere using their personal page. But such systems come slowly because of all the competing interests each pulling another way.
- eli_s 18y ago
  How will they make money? They need to make a LOT just to repay investors. The path to profitability is far from clear from my pov. A business does not choose to run at a loss. They are currently running at a loss because they have failed to monetize. Investors keep giving them money because they assume (have faith) there will be some way of turning a profit in the future.
  - markessien 18y ago
    The investors don't get repaid, they earn when the company earns.
- decadentcactus 18y ago
  If the least problem Facebook has is to make money, then why haven't they done it now? Don't you think it might be smart to get that little item checked off their list sooner rather than later?
  - markessien 18y ago
    Because to make money, people need to pay, and when people need to pay, growth slows. Their focus is on growth for the moment, and for that they need to spend. It's like playing monopoly - at the beginning of the game you concentrate on buying as many properties as you can, because you know later they will bring you profits. If you immediately start building when you have just 3 cards, then you will earn money right at the start, but you will suffer later. Facebook can sell itself at any time it wants to. Money is not the issue.

21 points by astrec 18y ago

I really hope he's wrong. This is pretty scary stuff, to me anyway. The last company I would want to have all this power is facebook.

patio11 18y ago

Facebook will have a big 2009 because there is no time to have a business model based on not-charging poor college students like during the middle of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

nx 18y ago

So Facebook is the new Gmail? Gmail has a lot of power and they don't seem to have done anything bad, so far. It's the users who decide to give all this information to a site, and there is nothing we can do besides trusting them. Well, it's what the Internet is about: a lot of benefits, a lot of vulnerabilities. The cool site everybody signs up on can be Facebook, Google or whichever, but things are not going to change for some time.

mdasen 18y ago

Why blank will blank in 2009. The blank of 2008. Great time of year - when you can make absurd statements that no one remembers. So, I guess I'll join in on the fun. 1. Facebook continues to loose money at a rate that makes the government (really any government) look good. They quickly burn through their cash and raise more cash and then raise some more. Their growth is phenomenal, but it becomes apparent that they aren't quite able to monetize. 2. Facebook tries a bold new strategy of invasive advertising. Lots of analysis of all sorts of things that piss off users. 3. Alternative services create an interoperable system that doesn't suck. Users are able to create friend relationships across domains. All of a sudden, social-network lock-in crumbles. I think that last one is the coolest thought. There are things stopping an open network from working: 1. Logins. OpenID is poorly implemented - it should work like email. Put in your email address, get the format of the OpenID url by checking the domain part and then put the username together in the format specified by the site for login. Profit! Most banks already have a two screen authentication (first just username, then just password) so it's not so outrageous to think users won't accept that. 2. Friends. There needs to be a cross-service friend system. This isn't so hard to implement. We already have a unique ID (the OpenID/Email). So, now we can say, bill@microsoft.com is friends with steve@apple.com even if only steve has signed up for the service because we import the bill email address as an ID to the service when we sign-up/sync. Now, that's a SPAM haven. So, why not hash the first part. So, bill becomes xc78901@microsoft.com as the ID and when bill@microsoft.com signs up, we hash it to see the ID and realise that he's already friends with others using the service. Cool! That way, we can take our friend network with us to whatever service and have it sync up easily.

siong1987 18y ago
Prediction 4: In the end of 2010, Facebook loses too much money and no VC wants to back them anymore. They have more than 20,000 workers. Finally, they need bailout from the government. This prediction is made on the previous 3 predictions made by mdasen.
Herring 18y ago
"1. Facebook continues to loose money at a rate that makes the government (really any government) look good." Maybe they should tighten their grip.

eli_s 18y ago

One day facebook will have to work out the monetization issue. They have accepted loads of investor money, and all those investors will one day expect a very healthy return. I think their success in getting more investment money comes from the mindset that something this big can't fail. I'm really curious to see if they come up with a working solution.

sam_in_nyc 18y ago

Facebook Connect will make or break the company. If I can share what I do on other sites with my friends on Facebook (presumably people I know and/or care about), that's a value gain for both me and anyone adopting this, because I'm likely to use these other sites more often. If, on the other hand, Facebook Connect isn't well adopted or it's a miserable experience, the Facebook really is just one locked in social network, and someone will come along and connect my profile across all websites. Someone other than OpenID which is the most annoying login system devised. How is Facebook not already able to sell marketing information? Nobody wants to know which bands are suddenly becoming more popular (and where)? Or which movies are being looked forward to by which people?

eli_s 18y ago
Monetization will make or break Facebook. If they can pay investors back along with a healthy margin and continue to bring in revenue then they will stay. Personally I don't think there is enough advertising money available regardless of economic conditions to keep this behemoth afloat. I'd love to know what alternatives those clever FB MBAs are cooking up. How will FB Connect help pay the bills?
- redorb 18y ago
  I really think it comes down to "The last sucker" to invest in facebook loses, I think facebook can't sell to anyone but microsoft because of their investment... and perhaps microsoft is waiting for the big crunch; then will get them at a really good price.
- jganetsk 18y ago
  Monetization should make or break every company that ever existed. It's silly that there are companies that can't monetize but are considered "successful".
  - sam_in_nyc 18y ago
    I don't think it's too silly of a concept. You can imagine a company having several departments: some which lose money, and some which make money. The departments that don't "generate revenue" per se can still be beneficial to the company as a whole, perhaps they provide publicity, they're good PR, they good morale, etc... Those departments, even though they lose money, have value to that company. With start-ups you can make something profitable, and surely that's preferred because you get your money back sooner, or you can build something that has value to someone else. In the end, you need just need to build something with value.

volida 18y ago

get a life

markessien 18y ago

OpenID died last year. Anyone still hoping that OpenID will gain any traction is hopelessly shortsighted. Facebook will make money, that is the least problem. Facebook connect is going to evolve to merge with MySpace, WindowsLive, StudiVZ, Xiaonei identities. People no longer identify themselves by their email addresses, they do so by their social networking account, and he's right there. And people don't like changing their social network, they are too entrenched. Americans like to think that Facebook is so dominant, but lots of people like Hi5 and cannot imagine using anything else, because their friends are all there. There will come a system where people can sign-in anywhere using their personal page. But such systems come slowly because of all the competing interests each pulling another way.

eli_s 18y ago
How will they make money? They need to make a LOT just to repay investors. The path to profitability is far from clear from my pov. A business does not choose to run at a loss. They are currently running at a loss because they have failed to monetize. Investors keep giving them money because they assume (have faith) there will be some way of turning a profit in the future.
- markessien 18y ago
  The investors don't get repaid, they earn when the company earns.
decadentcactus 18y ago
If the least problem Facebook has is to make money, then why haven't they done it now? Don't you think it might be smart to get that little item checked off their list sooner rather than later?
- markessien 18y ago
  Because to make money, people need to pay, and when people need to pay, growth slows. Their focus is on growth for the moment, and for that they need to spend. It's like playing monopoly - at the beginning of the game you concentrate on buying as many properties as you can, because you know later they will bring you profits. If you immediately start building when you have just 3 cards, then you will earn money right at the start, but you will suffer later. Facebook can sell itself at any time it wants to. Money is not the issue.