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Well you aren't wrong, but that is a question of identifying what model to fit. If the question is "are the workers in control of the outcome" then sure, they w

by roenxi 2y ago

Well you aren't wrong, but that is a question of identifying what model to fit. If the question is "are the workers in control of the outcome" then sure, they weren't using statistics properly. But if management realises that is the question to ask they also probably won't need statistics because the answer is obviously no in almost all contexts. Management was asking the question "given that the workers control the process and we know that there are differences between people, which workers are performing the best?". And they were doing the best they could under pressure with the incomplete information they had. It was a stupid model, but that is why they are going to an Ed Deming talk - the median manager defaults to stupid and needs a bit of help. Training people in high school stats doesn't necessarily get better results at model selection, some extremely educated and capable people are still stupid about that part.

wat10000 2y ago
They were certainly not doing their best to answer that question! Stats will answer that question correctly, answering “they’re all performing the same, within the margin of error.” Yes, actually understanding what the hell is going on is really helpful, but as a backstop, it’s good to have the basic stats knowledge that you can’t come to any conclusion from a handful of samples.
- roenxi 2y ago
  No you're not seeing it from the management perspective. They've already selected their model and assumed that performance depends on the worker involved. There isn't any "they’re all performing the same within the margin of error" because that would violate a model assumption. It has a probability of ~0%, there isn't any point checking for it. You're working from a model where the performance could be the same and then doing the obvious statistical checks. Typically in the wild management have sufficient knowledge to do those checks if their model allowed for performance to be equal. But they don't have a model where that is a reasonable possibility so there is nothing to check. They're doing the correct statistics for the wrong model. And the model happens to be really stupid but that is managers for you. You can teach them all that theory and they still won't apply it. The problem isn't usually a gap in statistical knowledge. Take another look at how Deming framed his experiment - if you look closely he is imparting statistical knowledge but that isn't where the real focus is. He's actually attacking the idea that the workers have any influence on outcomes.
  - wat10000 2y ago
    I see the management perspective. I’m just saying that perspective is obviously wrong if you have any stats knowledge. If your point is just that management could have that knowledge and fail to apply it, I won’t argue with that. But I definitely wouldn’t call it “doing their best” when that happens.

by roenxi 2y ago

wat10000 2y ago

They were certainly not doing their best to answer that question! Stats will answer that question correctly, answering “they’re all performing the same, within the margin of error.” Yes, actually understanding what the hell is going on is really helpful, but as a backstop, it’s good to have the basic stats knowledge that you can’t come to any conclusion from a handful of samples.

roenxi 2y ago
No you're not seeing it from the management perspective. They've already selected their model and assumed that performance depends on the worker involved. There isn't any "they’re all performing the same within the margin of error" because that would violate a model assumption. It has a probability of ~0%, there isn't any point checking for it. You're working from a model where the performance could be the same and then doing the obvious statistical checks. Typically in the wild management have sufficient knowledge to do those checks if their model allowed for performance to be equal. But they don't have a model where that is a reasonable possibility so there is nothing to check. They're doing the correct statistics for the wrong model. And the model happens to be really stupid but that is managers for you. You can teach them all that theory and they still won't apply it. The problem isn't usually a gap in statistical knowledge. Take another look at how Deming framed his experiment - if you look closely he is imparting statistical knowledge but that isn't where the real focus is. He's actually attacking the idea that the workers have any influence on outcomes.
- wat10000 2y ago
  I see the management perspective. I’m just saying that perspective is obviously wrong if you have any stats knowledge. If your point is just that management could have that knowledge and fail to apply it, I won’t argue with that. But I definitely wouldn’t call it “doing their best” when that happens.