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Argentina is a great analog for the UK, time shifted by century. Both former first-class economies doomed to a long decline by bad policies that elites refuse

Argentina is a great analog for the UK, time shifted by century. Both former first-class economies doomed to a long decline by bad policies that elites refuse to change.

TremendousJudge 2y ago
Hard disagree. Argentina is only similar to the UK insofar as they both deindustrialized starting in the 80s. Besides that, I have no idea why it would be a "great analog".
meiraleal 2y ago
a hundreds year ago Argentine had a population of less than 8million people and the 8º biggest territory of highly fertile land. That's not even 20% of the current population. Argentina was never a developed country.
kragen 2y ago
Argentina was a rich country but never a rich industrialized country. At the time we were rich, we were exporting beef and importing everything that came from a factory. Later attempts at industrialization, after global protectionism and domestic infighting had already plunged us into relative poverty, were based on the flawed paradigm of import-substitution industrialization, whereas the UK was transitioning from mercantilism to Smithian liberalism when they industrialized, both of which put the highest possible priority on exports. London is the world's second biggest financial hub, a fact that accounts for a significant part of the English economy, while Buenos Aires was never a financial hub for anyone but Argentines, and even we bank in London, Omaha, or Montevideo whenever we have the choice. Industrialization was somewhat successful; I am eating off an Argentine plate, on an Argentine table, with Argentine utensils (ironically made of stainless steel rather than, as would be appropriate for Argentina, silver) while Argentine-made buses roar by outside. A century ago, when we were rich, all those would have been imported from Europe or the US, except the table. My neighborhood today is full of machine shops and heavy machinery repair shops to support the industrial park across the street. Even the TV showing football news purports to be Argentine, but actually it's almost certainly assembled in the Tierra del Fuego duty-free zone from a Korean or Chinese kit. There is not much similarity.
- djhn 2y ago
  As a curious occasional geoguessr player, whereabouts in Tierra del Fuego one might find industry, manufacturing and assembly? I thought it was fishing, tourism and shipping focused.
  - kragen 2y ago
    I've never been there, but Google Maps search https://www.google.com/maps/search/f%C3%A0brica+de+aire+acondicionado+en+tierra+del+fuego/@-53.7876664,-67.7218577,13z https://www.google.com/maps/search/f%C3%A0brica+de+aire+acon... suggests the southwest corner of Rio Grande, and also there's a Midea Carrier factory a bit north of the city along the coastal highway.
- selimthegrim 2y ago
  Well, I guess who decides the line between basic industrialization and import substitution? The bondholders?
  - kragen 2y ago
    Import substitution is not an alternative to basic industrialization. It's a policy advocated as a means to achieve basic industrialization. I regret that my comment was so misleading. The usual alternative to import substitution industrialization is export-focused industrialization. Argentina and Brazil exemplify the former; Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and now the PRC exemplify the latter. The line between them is whether the country's manufactures are widely exported.
chairmansteve 2y ago
What country is a good counter example to UK decline? Spain maybe?
- meiraleal 2y ago
  China and India

Argentina is a great analog for the UK, time shifted by century. Both former first-class economies doomed to a long decline by bad policies that elites refuse to change.

TremendousJudge 2y ago

Hard disagree. Argentina is only similar to the UK insofar as they both deindustrialized starting in the 80s. Besides that, I have no idea why it would be a "great analog".

meiraleal 2y ago

a hundreds year ago Argentine had a population of less than 8million people and the 8º biggest territory of highly fertile land. That's not even 20% of the current population. Argentina was never a developed country.

kragen 2y ago

Argentina was a rich country but never a rich industrialized country. At the time we were rich, we were exporting beef and importing everything that came from a factory. Later attempts at industrialization, after global protectionism and domestic infighting had already plunged us into relative poverty, were based on the flawed paradigm of import-substitution industrialization, whereas the UK was transitioning from mercantilism to Smithian liberalism when they industrialized, both of which put the highest possible priority on exports. London is the world's second biggest financial hub, a fact that accounts for a significant part of the English economy, while Buenos Aires was never a financial hub for anyone but Argentines, and even we bank in London, Omaha, or Montevideo whenever we have the choice. Industrialization was somewhat successful; I am eating off an Argentine plate, on an Argentine table, with Argentine utensils (ironically made of stainless steel rather than, as would be appropriate for Argentina, silver) while Argentine-made buses roar by outside. A century ago, when we were rich, all those would have been imported from Europe or the US, except the table. My neighborhood today is full of machine shops and heavy machinery repair shops to support the industrial park across the street. Even the TV showing football news purports to be Argentine, but actually it's almost certainly assembled in the Tierra del Fuego duty-free zone from a Korean or Chinese kit. There is not much similarity.

djhn 2y ago
As a curious occasional geoguessr player, whereabouts in Tierra del Fuego one might find industry, manufacturing and assembly? I thought it was fishing, tourism and shipping focused.
- kragen 2y ago
  I've never been there, but Google Maps search https://www.google.com/maps/search/f%C3%A0brica+de+aire+acondicionado+en+tierra+del+fuego/@-53.7876664,-67.7218577,13z https://www.google.com/maps/search/f%C3%A0brica+de+aire+acon... suggests the southwest corner of Rio Grande, and also there's a Midea Carrier factory a bit north of the city along the coastal highway.
selimthegrim 2y ago
Well, I guess who decides the line between basic industrialization and import substitution? The bondholders?
- kragen 2y ago
  Import substitution is not an alternative to basic industrialization. It's a policy advocated as a means to achieve basic industrialization. I regret that my comment was so misleading. The usual alternative to import substitution industrialization is export-focused industrialization. Argentina and Brazil exemplify the former; Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and now the PRC exemplify the latter. The line between them is whether the country's manufactures are widely exported.

chairmansteve 2y ago

What country is a good counter example to UK decline? Spain maybe?

meiraleal 2y ago
China and India