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It's an interesting thought experiment what the value might be to be the obvious leader in this space. There are about 2B vehicles on the planet. Say each one
by ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
It's an interesting thought experiment what the value might be to be the obvious leader in this space.
There are about 2B vehicles on the planet. Say each one is driven for an hour per day. What might be the value of automating that hour? $5?
If it is $5, then the yearly value of automating all rides would be
$5 * 2B * 365 = $3650B
Say we get to 10% automation of the fleet in 10 years. And say the market leader gets 25% market share.
That would be $3650B * 0.1 * 0.25 = $91B
But the first 10% of rides that are automated are probable much more valuable than the average. So let's double that:
$91B * 2 = $182B
Say the margin is 50%. That would be $91B.
At a p/e of 30 that would be worth $2730B.
About twice as Tesla's current market cap.