> But gradually the models will get better. Even as they push further into the space of brand new experiences, they will slowly become reliable enough to use fo

> But gradually the models will get better. Even as they push further into the space of brand new experiences, they will slowly become reliable enough to use for real work. This is an article of faith. Posts like this almost always boil down to one or two sentences like this, on which the entire rest of the post rests. It's postulated as a concrete fact, but it's really not. We don't know how much better models will get, we don't know that they will get good enough to accomplish the tasks the author is talking about, hell, we don't even know if we'll ever see another appreciable increase in model quality ever again, or if we've already hit a local maximum. They MIGHT, by they also might not, we don't know. This post would be a lot more honest if it started with "Hey, wouldn't it be neat if..."