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If you really knew Bitcoin was going to be big with certainty/high probability, you could have mined it or done a dark alley transaction early on. Assuming you

by ghaff 2y ago

If you really knew Bitcoin was going to be big with certainty/high probability, you could have mined it or done a dark alley transaction early on. Assuming you didn't get scammed out of or simply lost your wallet at some point, I agree, it's an exception where you could have made a fortune from basically nothing. (Though not in a day which is the actual experiment in question.) The more interesting experiment to me would be if you gave me a week's worth (say) of the WSJ from ten years hence, what could I do with it?

didgetmaster 2y ago
I was replying to the comment that stated that you need a significant amount of capital in order to make life altering gains, even if you had a crystal ball. I was arguing that with the right information, you could turn a few bucks into a massive fortune (bitcoin being a single example).
- ghaff 2y ago
  Rags to Riches and all that given a sufficiently long time horizon and the right drive and savvy, and luck. I do think there are relatively few cases where you can just drop someone in the right place at the right time with a few dollars and expect them to succeed, especially in the short-term.
  - didgetmaster 2y ago
    Of course MOST rags to riches stories are accumulated over decades of hard work with some luck sprinkled in; but almost every day you hear of a few turning a few bucks into a fortune overnight. Lottery winners, meme stock traders, and sports betting are just a few examples. Everyone knows it can happen. That is why get-rich-quick schemes work.
    - ghaff 2y ago
      Sure, if I know the Powerball winner or some weird meme stock spike a day in advance, but that's getting a bit off the topic of seeing the front page of a major news source a day earlier for the most part. (And even the meme stock takes money to really take advantage of)
    - Terr_ 2y ago
      https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/
EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
Don't look at the front page, go to the Market Digest and look up yesterday's changes in currency exchange rates or CME futures. Bet on those with 100x leverage and voilà!

by ghaff 2y ago

didgetmaster 2y ago

I was replying to the comment that stated that you need a significant amount of capital in order to make life altering gains, even if you had a crystal ball. I was arguing that with the right information, you could turn a few bucks into a massive fortune (bitcoin being a single example).

ghaff 2y ago
Rags to Riches and all that given a sufficiently long time horizon and the right drive and savvy, and luck. I do think there are relatively few cases where you can just drop someone in the right place at the right time with a few dollars and expect them to succeed, especially in the short-term.
- didgetmaster 2y ago
  Of course MOST rags to riches stories are accumulated over decades of hard work with some luck sprinkled in; but almost every day you hear of a few turning a few bucks into a fortune overnight. Lottery winners, meme stock traders, and sports betting are just a few examples. Everyone knows it can happen. That is why get-rich-quick schemes work.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Sure, if I know the Powerball winner or some weird meme stock spike a day in advance, but that's getting a bit off the topic of seeing the front page of a major news source a day earlier for the most part. (And even the meme stock takes money to really take advantage of)
  - Terr_ 2y ago
    https://xkcd.com/1827/ https://xkcd.com/1827/

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago

Don't look at the front page, go to the Market Digest and look up yesterday's changes in currency exchange rates or CME futures. Bet on those with 100x leverage and voilà!