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Followed your advice. Invested in SP500 every slide of the game, irrespective of the news (with 10x leverage). Lost 52%.

wat10000 2y ago
The S&P 500 is down less than 1% below its all-time high. It’s mathematically impossible to lose 52% following that advice. I think “with 10% leverage” deserves a lot more than a parenthetical here.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
  Try it yourself, the game is not randomized. You should receive exactly the same result.
- TeaBrain 2y ago
  If fully invested in just the S&P 500 with 10x leverage, it seems less mathematically possible to have lost just 52% unless it was an very short time horizon. If fully invested, A 5.2% decrease in the value of the S&P 500, with 10x leverage, would lead to a 52% fund draw down, given no margin call during the 5.2% S&P draw down. In most years, the S&P experiences at least one short-term draw down off the years peak of at least 10%, which would lead to a complete loss of capital, given that they hadn't already experienced a forced liquidation due to a margin call on the previously 10x levered assets, which would now be levered higher given a loss in the capital base.
ac29 2y ago
If the days selected were purely random, investing in SP500 would be wise (though not with 10x leverage). In this experiment only 1/3 of days were random, with another third in employment report days and the last third in fed announcement days. When I did this with -10x SP500 every day the result was a +36% return, which is surely not what you would expect if the trading days were purely random.
- lizzas 2y ago
  Is there a strategy here?
Rexxar 2y ago
10x leverage is just crazy for individual stock investment. The lesson you should learn from this is not "don't invest SP500" but "don't use 10x leverage".
lizzas 2y ago
Get a better broker :-) my SP50 (yes 50, dont ask!) index is doing alwite.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
  Get a better reading comprehension tutor.

wat10000 2y ago

The S&P 500 is down less than 1% below its all-time high. It’s mathematically impossible to lose 52% following that advice. I think “with 10% leverage” deserves a lot more than a parenthetical here.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
Try it yourself, the game is not randomized. You should receive exactly the same result.
TeaBrain 2y ago
If fully invested in just the S&P 500 with 10x leverage, it seems less mathematically possible to have lost just 52% unless it was an very short time horizon. If fully invested, A 5.2% decrease in the value of the S&P 500, with 10x leverage, would lead to a 52% fund draw down, given no margin call during the 5.2% S&P draw down. In most years, the S&P experiences at least one short-term draw down off the years peak of at least 10%, which would lead to a complete loss of capital, given that they hadn't already experienced a forced liquidation due to a margin call on the previously 10x levered assets, which would now be levered higher given a loss in the capital base.

ac29 2y ago

If the days selected were purely random, investing in SP500 would be wise (though not with 10x leverage). In this experiment only 1/3 of days were random, with another third in employment report days and the last third in fed announcement days. When I did this with -10x SP500 every day the result was a +36% return, which is surely not what you would expect if the trading days were purely random.

lizzas 2y ago
Is there a strategy here?

Rexxar 2y ago

10x leverage is just crazy for individual stock investment. The lesson you should learn from this is not "don't invest SP500" but "don't use 10x leverage".

lizzas 2y ago

Get a better broker :-) my SP50 (yes 50, dont ask!) index is doing alwite.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
Get a better reading comprehension tutor.