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TikTok's Future in the US Is Unclear

8 points by marban 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
chvid 2y ago
The potential buyers mentioned in this article are not serious players. None of them are capable of raising the sums required to buy TikTok even in a distressed situation. As it is now the most rational thing for bytedance is to leave the US market for now, and focus on the rest of the world.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I think it’s still possible for them to potentially evade sanctions using third-party app stores and continue to operate while continuing to legally fight US government efforts, as domestic companies would do. We live in a post competency environment currently, so if you can ignore and/or evade, why not?
  - chvid 2y ago
    No. As the law is, tiktok will become inaccessible in the US both as an app and as a web app.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      It’ll be whack a mole. The US government can gate at primary mobile app stores easily (applying pressure to Google and Apple), but nowhere else.
      - blowsand 2y ago
        The current US presence is hosted by Oracle. That would end as it would cause Oracle to be fined, and the content moved outside the US. The direct oversite by the US government via Oracle would end. Access by US users would have to be via web since App Store distribution would subject Google and Apple to fines.
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
        Yes, agreed. Distribution by side loading or third party app stores enabled by recent anti trust rulings are outside of the centralized App Store control you mention. Hosting and storage at an org without a US entity within reach of the jurisdiction. Bad for Oracle, troublesome for Bytedance, but the band plays on.
- blowsand 2y ago
  Rational from what perspective? The US is a top market for TikTok in terms of revenue and users. Bytedance isn’t just some cohort of Chinese bureaucrats with bottomless pockets sitting in Beijing. Its major investors and BoD include large global VCs and individual investors who are not going to walk away from a successful app that prints money. Ironically the way TikTok’s presence is built and audited by Ellison and Co in the US is far more secure than if it were sitting outside of the US.
  - chvid 2y ago
    Rational in terms of money risk/reward. What can be sold of is TikTok international - not just the US part - in a fair market - say sold via an IPO - that would be worth hundreds of billions. It is simply a better deal to exit the US market and still have something plus the chance of return rather than to sell at a very depressed price.

8 points by marban 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

The potential buyers mentioned in this article are not serious players. None of them are capable of raising the sums required to buy TikTok even in a distressed situation. As it is now the most rational thing for bytedance is to leave the US market for now, and focus on the rest of the world.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
I think it’s still possible for them to potentially evade sanctions using third-party app stores and continue to operate while continuing to legally fight US government efforts, as domestic companies would do. We live in a post competency environment currently, so if you can ignore and/or evade, why not?
- chvid 2y ago
  No. As the law is, tiktok will become inaccessible in the US both as an app and as a web app.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    It’ll be whack a mole. The US government can gate at primary mobile app stores easily (applying pressure to Google and Apple), but nowhere else.
    - blowsand 2y ago
      The current US presence is hosted by Oracle. That would end as it would cause Oracle to be fined, and the content moved outside the US. The direct oversite by the US government via Oracle would end. Access by US users would have to be via web since App Store distribution would subject Google and Apple to fines.
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        Yes, agreed. Distribution by side loading or third party app stores enabled by recent anti trust rulings are outside of the centralized App Store control you mention. Hosting and storage at an org without a US entity within reach of the jurisdiction. Bad for Oracle, troublesome for Bytedance, but the band plays on.
blowsand 2y ago
Rational from what perspective? The US is a top market for TikTok in terms of revenue and users. Bytedance isn’t just some cohort of Chinese bureaucrats with bottomless pockets sitting in Beijing. Its major investors and BoD include large global VCs and individual investors who are not going to walk away from a successful app that prints money. Ironically the way TikTok’s presence is built and audited by Ellison and Co in the US is far more secure than if it were sitting outside of the US.
- chvid 2y ago
  Rational in terms of money risk/reward. What can be sold of is TikTok international - not just the US part - in a fair market - say sold via an IPO - that would be worth hundreds of billions. It is simply a better deal to exit the US market and still have something plus the chance of return rather than to sell at a very depressed price.