I'm not too sure, since I can't find the exact model used by FiveThirtyEight. If any of you can point me to a post of theirs where they describe their model in

I'm not too sure, since I can't find the exact model used by FiveThirtyEight. If any of you can point me to a post of theirs where they describe their model in detail, that would be great. From the few things I have found out, some differences are that (1) they take into account correlations between states, which I don't as of now, but plan on adding and (2) they use Monte Carlo simulations whereas I have a closed-form expression for calculating the probability. Beyond the above two differences, I'm not sure what model they use to convert the poll results into final probability estimates. FYI, in case you haven't seen it yet, my methodology is described at http://prespredict.com/methodology.html http://prespredict.com/methodology.html