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>exceptionally smart at making predictions Is anyone though? Genuine question. I don't have much faith in predictions anymore.
by padolsey 2y ago
>exceptionally smart at making predictions
Is anyone though? Genuine question. I don't have much faith in predictions anymore.
- qeternity 2y agoNo, very few for things with this much uncertainty. Most of it is survivorship bias: if you have a million people all making predictions with coin flip accuracy, somebody is going to get a seemingly improbable number correct.
- exe34 2y agoso your prediction is that most predictions will be wrong?
- bobbruno 2y agoA common saying in the stats field goes like this: "Predictions are hard, especially about the future".
- ethbr1 2y agoPredictions predicated on technological advancement are tricky: there's a reason breakthroughs are called breakthroughs.