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I mean in the last week a guy with a similar profile shot and killed the United Healthcare CEO. But frankly this is a "oh that person seemed so happy, how coul

by XorNot 2y ago

I mean in the last week a guy with a similar profile shot and killed the United Healthcare CEO. But frankly this is a "oh that person seemed so happy, how could they have been depressed!?" line of thinking. The 2021 suicide death rate in the US population for the 26 to 44 age bracket is 18.8 per 100,000[1]. It is literally the highest rate (second is 18-25), and it is wildly skewed in favor men (22.8 / 100,000 vs 5.7 per 100,000). [1] https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-latest-suicide-data-and-change-over-the-last-decade/ https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-...

neuroelectron 2y ago
I get what you're saying but statistics aren't evidence of an individual's behavior.
- XorNot 2y ago
  Sure, but as soon as someone says "what are the odds someone with X features kills himself" - well I didn't invoke the statistical argument did I? The answer is: it's right within the profile. You don't get to say "what are the odds!?" and then complain about the actual statistics - as noted elsewhere in this thread, the Birthday Paradox[1] is also at play. What are the odds of any individual whistleblower dying? Who knows. What are the odds of someone, somewhere, describable as a whisteblower dying? Fairly high if there's even a modest number of whistleblowers relative to the method of death (i.e. Boeing has dozens of whistleblower cases going, and OpenAI sheds an employee every other week who writes a critique on their blog about the company). This same problem turns up with any discussion of vaccines and VAERS. If I simply go and wave my hand over the arm of 1,000 random people then within a year it's virtually guaranteed at least 1 of them will be dead, probably a lot more[2]. Hell, at a standard death rate of 8.1/1000, OpenAI's standing number of employees of 1,700[3] means in any given year it's pretty likely someone will die - and since "worked for OpenAI" is a one-way membership, year over year "former OpenAI employee dies" gets more and more likely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem [2] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI
- ironhaven 2y ago
  Have you considered that maybe testifying against the company you work for and may have some personal connection to is very stressful. I'm being serious that someone in that situation may have mixed feelings about doing the right thing vs betraying friends/bosses and how they may have contributed to wrongdoing in the testmony

by XorNot 2y ago

neuroelectron 2y ago

I get what you're saying but statistics aren't evidence of an individual's behavior.

XorNot 2y ago
Sure, but as soon as someone says "what are the odds someone with X features kills himself" - well I didn't invoke the statistical argument did I? The answer is: it's right within the profile. You don't get to say "what are the odds!?" and then complain about the actual statistics - as noted elsewhere in this thread, the Birthday Paradox[1] is also at play. What are the odds of any individual whistleblower dying? Who knows. What are the odds of someone, somewhere, describable as a whisteblower dying? Fairly high if there's even a modest number of whistleblowers relative to the method of death (i.e. Boeing has dozens of whistleblower cases going, and OpenAI sheds an employee every other week who writes a critique on their blog about the company). This same problem turns up with any discussion of vaccines and VAERS. If I simply go and wave my hand over the arm of 1,000 random people then within a year it's virtually guaranteed at least 1 of them will be dead, probably a lot more[2]. Hell, at a standard death rate of 8.1/1000, OpenAI's standing number of employees of 1,700[3] means in any given year it's pretty likely someone will die - and since "worked for OpenAI" is a one-way membership, year over year "former OpenAI employee dies" gets more and more likely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem [2] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI
ironhaven 2y ago
Have you considered that maybe testifying against the company you work for and may have some personal connection to is very stressful. I'm being serious that someone in that situation may have mixed feelings about doing the right thing vs betraying friends/bosses and how they may have contributed to wrongdoing in the testmony