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"No evidence of foul play." What about the evidence that he's only 26 and has a successful career in the booming Ai industry? He doesn't seem a likely candidat

"No evidence of foul play." What about the evidence that he's only 26 and has a successful career in the booming Ai industry? He doesn't seem a likely candidate for suicide. Fair use hasn't been tested in court. He has documents that show OpenAI's intention and communications about the legal framework for it. He was directly involved in web scraping and openly discussing the legal perspectives with his superiors. That is damning evidence.

XorNot 2y ago
I mean in the last week a guy with a similar profile shot and killed the United Healthcare CEO. But frankly this is a "oh that person seemed so happy, how could they have been depressed!?" line of thinking. The 2021 suicide death rate in the US population for the 26 to 44 age bracket is 18.8 per 100,000[1]. It is literally the highest rate (second is 18-25), and it is wildly skewed in favor men (22.8 / 100,000 vs 5.7 per 100,000). [1] https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-latest-suicide-data-and-change-over-the-last-decade/ https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-...
- neuroelectron 2y ago
  I get what you're saying but statistics aren't evidence of an individual's behavior.
  - XorNot 2y ago
    Sure, but as soon as someone says "what are the odds someone with X features kills himself" - well I didn't invoke the statistical argument did I? The answer is: it's right within the profile. You don't get to say "what are the odds!?" and then complain about the actual statistics - as noted elsewhere in this thread, the Birthday Paradox[1] is also at play. What are the odds of any individual whistleblower dying? Who knows. What are the odds of someone, somewhere, describable as a whisteblower dying? Fairly high if there's even a modest number of whistleblowers relative to the method of death (i.e. Boeing has dozens of whistleblower cases going, and OpenAI sheds an employee every other week who writes a critique on their blog about the company). This same problem turns up with any discussion of vaccines and VAERS. If I simply go and wave my hand over the arm of 1,000 random people then within a year it's virtually guaranteed at least 1 of them will be dead, probably a lot more[2]. Hell, at a standard death rate of 8.1/1000, OpenAI's standing number of employees of 1,700[3] means in any given year it's pretty likely someone will die - and since "worked for OpenAI" is a one-way membership, year over year "former OpenAI employee dies" gets more and more likely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem [2] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI
  - ironhaven 2y ago
    Have you considered that maybe testifying against the company you work for and may have some personal connection to is very stressful. I'm being serious that someone in that situation may have mixed feelings about doing the right thing vs betraying friends/bosses and how they may have contributed to wrongdoing in the testmony
smeeger 2y ago
people dont kill themselves because they dont have a good job. thats a weird and naive belief that upper class people have. people kill themselves because they are mentally unwell, fundamentally. except situations like terminal illness.
- snozolli 2y ago
  people dont kill themselves because they dont have a good job. Countless people have killed themselves upon losing a job. Jobs are fundamental to our identity in society and the ramifications of job loss are enormous. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9530609/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9530609/
  - smeeger 2y ago
    people kill themselves after lots of different stressful life events. the reason is that the stress induces depression/ mental dysfunction. the difference between people who do and dont, besides having the information or wisdom to put the situation in context and avoid the stress in the first place, is robustness of mental health. its a mental health issue not a jobs issue.
    - gregw2 2y ago
      I think mental health is more stressful nowdays because people have fewer in-person hangout friends outside of jobs+school. So when they lose a job, there is less of a social network to process it with. Just my speculation tho.
      - smeeger 2y ago
        its family. everyone is disconnected now so theres nobody to catch you when you fall. this is the way it is in the netherlands but they have excellent social services to make up for it… meanwhile the rest of the world, entering into this way of existing for the first time, doesnt have anything to make up for it. people are just fucked. the times we are living through right now are way harder than anyone appreciates. be strong
dehrmann 2y ago
> He doesn't seem a likely candidate for suicide. He might have been under pressure from attention he got from the press for whistle blowing. He might have worried about career damage. 26 and working on a web scraper for a high-profile company is great, but it's nothing special. I'm not sure of his immigration status, but he could also be dealing with visa issues.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

XorNot 2y ago

I mean in the last week a guy with a similar profile shot and killed the United Healthcare CEO. But frankly this is a "oh that person seemed so happy, how could they have been depressed!?" line of thinking. The 2021 suicide death rate in the US population for the 26 to 44 age bracket is 18.8 per 100,000[1]. It is literally the highest rate (second is 18-25), and it is wildly skewed in favor men (22.8 / 100,000 vs 5.7 per 100,000). [1] https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-latest-suicide-data-and-change-over-the-last-decade/ https://www.kff.org/mental-health/issue-brief/a-look-at-the-...

neuroelectron 2y ago
I get what you're saying but statistics aren't evidence of an individual's behavior.
- XorNot 2y ago
  Sure, but as soon as someone says "what are the odds someone with X features kills himself" - well I didn't invoke the statistical argument did I? The answer is: it's right within the profile. You don't get to say "what are the odds!?" and then complain about the actual statistics - as noted elsewhere in this thread, the Birthday Paradox[1] is also at play. What are the odds of any individual whistleblower dying? Who knows. What are the odds of someone, somewhere, describable as a whisteblower dying? Fairly high if there's even a modest number of whistleblowers relative to the method of death (i.e. Boeing has dozens of whistleblower cases going, and OpenAI sheds an employee every other week who writes a critique on their blog about the company). This same problem turns up with any discussion of vaccines and VAERS. If I simply go and wave my hand over the arm of 1,000 random people then within a year it's virtually guaranteed at least 1 of them will be dead, probably a lot more[2]. Hell, at a standard death rate of 8.1/1000, OpenAI's standing number of employees of 1,700[3] means in any given year it's pretty likely someone will die - and since "worked for OpenAI" is a one-way membership, year over year "former OpenAI employee dies" gets more and more likely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem [2] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/ [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI
- ironhaven 2y ago
  Have you considered that maybe testifying against the company you work for and may have some personal connection to is very stressful. I'm being serious that someone in that situation may have mixed feelings about doing the right thing vs betraying friends/bosses and how they may have contributed to wrongdoing in the testmony

smeeger 2y ago

people dont kill themselves because they dont have a good job. thats a weird and naive belief that upper class people have. people kill themselves because they are mentally unwell, fundamentally. except situations like terminal illness.

snozolli 2y ago
people dont kill themselves because they dont have a good job. Countless people have killed themselves upon losing a job. Jobs are fundamental to our identity in society and the ramifications of job loss are enormous. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9530609/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9530609/
- smeeger 2y ago
  people kill themselves after lots of different stressful life events. the reason is that the stress induces depression/ mental dysfunction. the difference between people who do and dont, besides having the information or wisdom to put the situation in context and avoid the stress in the first place, is robustness of mental health. its a mental health issue not a jobs issue.
  - gregw2 2y ago
    I think mental health is more stressful nowdays because people have fewer in-person hangout friends outside of jobs+school. So when they lose a job, there is less of a social network to process it with. Just my speculation tho.
    - smeeger 2y ago
      its family. everyone is disconnected now so theres nobody to catch you when you fall. this is the way it is in the netherlands but they have excellent social services to make up for it… meanwhile the rest of the world, entering into this way of existing for the first time, doesnt have anything to make up for it. people are just fucked. the times we are living through right now are way harder than anyone appreciates. be strong

dehrmann 2y ago

> He doesn't seem a likely candidate for suicide. He might have been under pressure from attention he got from the press for whistle blowing. He might have worried about career damage. 26 and working on a web scraper for a high-profile company is great, but it's nothing special. I'm not sure of his immigration status, but he could also be dealing with visa issues.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]