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Just because you can generate numbers between 0 and 1 doesn't make them meaningful probabilities. Are these based on data? No, they're rhetorical tools used to
by agnosticmantis 2y ago
Just because you can generate numbers between 0 and 1 doesn't make them meaningful probabilities.
Are these based on data? No, they're rhetorical tools used to sound quantitative and scientific.
Nobody will be applying the calculus of probability to these meaningless numbers coming out of someone's ass.
And most importantly, is he himself willing to bet a significant fraction of his fortune based on these socalled probabilities? I don't think so. So they're not probabilities.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- danielmarkbruce 2y agoA conversation like this happens every minute between investors, people who work at hedge funds, trader types, bookies, people who work in cat insurance etc. They just think this way. They are "priors" in Bayes world. Based on intuition. Notice the lack of precision. Nobody says "50%" or "10%" to sound scientific. I'm 99.9% certain it's better than using ambiguous terms "likely", "probably", "certainly possible" and so on.
- rightbyte 2y agoI like to use the the 0.1% cya too, but that makes you sound 99.9% less sure.
- danielmarkbruce 2y ago1 in a 1000 is probably the best way to do it. 99.9% and 0.1% sound like fake precision, even though they aren't.