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> despite how far it has come it cannot in next 30 years be ubiquitous, even if the l5 magic tech exists today in every new car sold it will take 15 years for c
by mlyle 2y ago
> despite how far it has come it cannot in next 30 years be ubiquitous, even if the l5 magic tech exists today in every new car sold it will take 15 years for current cars to lifecycle.
We must have a different meaning of ubiquitous. Ubiquitous means "found everywhere" not "has eliminated everything else."
You don't even need to cycle the fleet once to meet the definition of ubiquitous. If you can get a self driving car in any city and many towns, you see them all over the place, and a third of trips are done with them, that'd be ubiquitous in my book.
I don't see why you couldn't get there in 3 decades. I don't think it's likely in 12 years but it seems possible in that timeframe.
- manquer 2y agoI considered fleet change as the transformation that eliminates driving as a needed skill . Getting a slightly better version of Waymo in SF is just augmenting for a poor public transit with a very American car solution . It scales pretty poorly and cannot replace good public transit, at best can augment them as last mile connectivity . There is value to those of course and is disruptive to a sector, it is still a specific use case and not world changing. You are only disrupting the taxi industry not driving itself . The claims at the time was not we are going replace taxis with robotaxis , but driving itself will be a thing of the past. That is the nature of hype cycles .