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Self-driving won't take over by just being available in the new cars people are buying anyway. It'll take over when people find it cheaper to ride robotaxis th

Self-driving won't take over by just being available in the new cars people are buying anyway. It'll take over when people find it cheaper to ride robotaxis than to own a vehicle at all. That's potentially a much quicker transition, requiring significantly fewer new vehicles.

manquer 2y ago
Assuming we get to your level of value prop. It will still only be a choice for new first time buyers If I already own a car, for which am paying an emi and no hope of selling for good value (because market is dropping as newest buyers disappear) it won’t make economic sense for me till I generate LTV from the car to switch over . Either way it till take 1-2 decades after ubiquitous L5 availability, even if that was possible at all and soon
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
bdangubic 2y ago
there are already cheaper ways to ride from point A to point B without owning a car (especially in urban areas) and yet car ownership has never been higher… ideal robotaxis will take at least one full generation to actually materialize. just as a silly personal example, I took a car to the shop and got Uber credits. my wife was heading into the city for an event (had to deal with both traffic and parking) and I was like “take a free Uber” and she was like “no way, driving my own car…” my daughter on the other hand…
mnky9800n 2y ago
Nobody is going to sit and wait for a robo uber in the suburbs for ten minutes to go to the grocery store ten miles down the road. This is the main problem, America has suburbanised itself to hell and no amount of robo taxis will create the world you are suggesting. And elsewhere in the world there’s no need because most places have adequate public transit which solves the problem way more efficiently than robo taxis ever will.
- cinntaile 2y ago
  Public transport doesn't compare to robotaxis. If robotaxis become a reality I expect a significant drop in car ownership and public transport use. The price will be competitive with the price of public transport, at least for single fare prices.
  - mnky9800n 2y ago
    I can catch a bus every five minutes a one minute walk from my house in Utrecht. Those buses go anywhere. In Oslo I could ride the T-bane to the forest or to downtown. In Tokyo it was obvious public transit is the only way to go. All the places I lived outside the USA I would never take a taxi much less a robot one in lieu of Public transit.
    - cinntaile 2y ago
      Because taxis are not cheap enough. Once they become cheap enough, by not having a driver, the equation changes. Travel becomes more convenient.
      - chgs 2y ago
        In a city I don’t take public transport over uber due to the cost but due to the convenience and speed. The only exception is the US, and even then that doesn’t apply in Manhattan.
        thrw42A8N 2y ago
        That's because people are behind the wheel. Once car ownership drops, the computerized traffic control can get much more efficient.
        chgs 2y ago
        Computerised public transport is even more efficient Your public transport with robo taxis takes up far more space in the surface than there is available in a normal city, as shown in this photo. https://danielbowen.com/2012/09/19/road-space-photo/ https://danielbowen.com/2012/09/19/road-space-photo/

manquer 2y ago

Assuming we get to your level of value prop. It will still only be a choice for new first time buyers If I already own a car, for which am paying an emi and no hope of selling for good value (because market is dropping as newest buyers disappear) it won’t make economic sense for me till I generate LTV from the car to switch over . Either way it till take 1-2 decades after ubiquitous L5 availability, even if that was possible at all and soon

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

bdangubic 2y ago

there are already cheaper ways to ride from point A to point B without owning a car (especially in urban areas) and yet car ownership has never been higher… ideal robotaxis will take at least one full generation to actually materialize. just as a silly personal example, I took a car to the shop and got Uber credits. my wife was heading into the city for an event (had to deal with both traffic and parking) and I was like “take a free Uber” and she was like “no way, driving my own car…” my daughter on the other hand…

mnky9800n 2y ago

Nobody is going to sit and wait for a robo uber in the suburbs for ten minutes to go to the grocery store ten miles down the road. This is the main problem, America has suburbanised itself to hell and no amount of robo taxis will create the world you are suggesting. And elsewhere in the world there’s no need because most places have adequate public transit which solves the problem way more efficiently than robo taxis ever will.

cinntaile 2y ago
Public transport doesn't compare to robotaxis. If robotaxis become a reality I expect a significant drop in car ownership and public transport use. The price will be competitive with the price of public transport, at least for single fare prices.
- mnky9800n 2y ago
  I can catch a bus every five minutes a one minute walk from my house in Utrecht. Those buses go anywhere. In Oslo I could ride the T-bane to the forest or to downtown. In Tokyo it was obvious public transit is the only way to go. All the places I lived outside the USA I would never take a taxi much less a robot one in lieu of Public transit.
  - cinntaile 2y ago
    Because taxis are not cheap enough. Once they become cheap enough, by not having a driver, the equation changes. Travel becomes more convenient.
    - chgs 2y ago
      In a city I don’t take public transport over uber due to the cost but due to the convenience and speed. The only exception is the US, and even then that doesn’t apply in Manhattan.
      - thrw42A8N 2y ago
        That's because people are behind the wheel. Once car ownership drops, the computerized traffic control can get much more efficient.
        chgs 2y ago
        Computerised public transport is even more efficient Your public transport with robo taxis takes up far more space in the surface than there is available in a normal city, as shown in this photo. https://danielbowen.com/2012/09/19/road-space-photo/ https://danielbowen.com/2012/09/19/road-space-photo/