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> Anytime someone potentially possesses information that is damning to a company and that person is killed… the low probability of such an even being a random c

> Anytime someone potentially possesses information that is damning to a company and that person is killed… the low probability of such an even being a random coincidence is quite low. You're running into the birthday paradox here. The probability of a specific witness dying before they can testify in a lawsuit is low. The probability of any one of dozens of people involved in a lawsuit dying before it's resolved is actually rather high.

smt88 2y ago
A 26yo dying is not "one of dozens," it's ~1/10,000 in the US (and likely much lower if we consider this guy's background and socioeconomic status).
- lolinder 2y ago
  If we're going to control for life situations, you have to calculate the suicide rate for people who are actively involved in a high stakes lawsuit against a former employer, which is going to be much higher than average. Then factor in non-suicide death rates as well. Then consider that there are apparently at least 12 like him in this lawsuit, and several other lawsuits pending. I'm not going to pretend to know what the exact odds are, but it's going to end up way higher than 1/10k.
ninetyninenine 2y ago
Right, so given the paradox, consider both possibilities rather then dismiss one like the parent is implying here.
- lolinder 2y ago
  I've considered the probabilities of both and find one to be far more likely.
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    What a useless answer. I considered whether your answer was influenced by mental deficiency and bias and I considered one possibility to be more likely then the other.
- XorNot 2y ago
  Or you could just look at the facts of the case (currently: no foul play suspected). Are the cops in on it? The morgue? The local city? How high does this go? This isn't something which happened in isolation. This isn't "someone died". It's "someone died, and dozens of people are going to sign off that this obviously not a suicide was definitely a suicide". Like, is that possible? Can you fake a suicide and leave no evidence you did? If you can then how many suicides aren't actually suicides but homicides? How would we know? You're acting like it's a binary choice of probabilities but it isn't.
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    Why did you have to make it go in the direction of conspiracy theory? Of course not. An assassination that looks like a suicide but isn’t is extremely possible. You don't have enough details from the article to make a call on this. > You're acting like it's a binary choice of probabilities but it isn't. It is a binary choice because that’s typically how the question is formulated in the process of the scientific method. Was it suicide or was it not a suicide? Binary. Once that question is analyzed you can dig deeper into was it an assassination or was it not? Essentially two binary questions are needed to cover every possibility here and to encompass suicide and assassination.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]

smt88 2y ago

A 26yo dying is not "one of dozens," it's ~1/10,000 in the US (and likely much lower if we consider this guy's background and socioeconomic status).

lolinder 2y ago
If we're going to control for life situations, you have to calculate the suicide rate for people who are actively involved in a high stakes lawsuit against a former employer, which is going to be much higher than average. Then factor in non-suicide death rates as well. Then consider that there are apparently at least 12 like him in this lawsuit, and several other lawsuits pending. I'm not going to pretend to know what the exact odds are, but it's going to end up way higher than 1/10k.

ninetyninenine 2y ago

Right, so given the paradox, consider both possibilities rather then dismiss one like the parent is implying here.

lolinder 2y ago
I've considered the probabilities of both and find one to be far more likely.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  What a useless answer. I considered whether your answer was influenced by mental deficiency and bias and I considered one possibility to be more likely then the other.
XorNot 2y ago
Or you could just look at the facts of the case (currently: no foul play suspected). Are the cops in on it? The morgue? The local city? How high does this go? This isn't something which happened in isolation. This isn't "someone died". It's "someone died, and dozens of people are going to sign off that this obviously not a suicide was definitely a suicide". Like, is that possible? Can you fake a suicide and leave no evidence you did? If you can then how many suicides aren't actually suicides but homicides? How would we know? You're acting like it's a binary choice of probabilities but it isn't.
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  Why did you have to make it go in the direction of conspiracy theory? Of course not. An assassination that looks like a suicide but isn’t is extremely possible. You don't have enough details from the article to make a call on this. > You're acting like it's a binary choice of probabilities but it isn't. It is a binary choice because that’s typically how the question is formulated in the process of the scientific method. Was it suicide or was it not a suicide? Binary. Once that question is analyzed you can dig deeper into was it an assassination or was it not? Essentially two binary questions are needed to cover every possibility here and to encompass suicide and assassination.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]