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> Economics is the worst social science, an economist is never considered wrong, only of a different “school of economics”. Economists speak as if they have aut
by throw0101d 2y ago
> Economics is the worst social science, an economist is never considered wrong, only of a different “school of economics”. Economists speak as if they have authority and as if their field is objective, but at the same time have those “schools”. Is there such a thing as an unideological economist?
Economics is falsifiable.
For example, a bunch of folks made a prediction ("currency debasement and inflation") when the US Federal reserve started QE:
> We believe the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called “quantitative easing”) should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed’s objective of promoting employment.
* https://www.hoover.org/research/open-letter-ben-bernanke https://www.hoover.org/research/open-letter-ben-bernanke
A bunch of other folks (e.g., Keynesians like Krugman) made a bunch of prediction as well. One group turned out right, another did not. Another experiment where one group predicted tax cuts would spur growth:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_experiment
Others predicted it would not, and were right. There was also sorts of folks talking that cutting government spending would spur growth, i.e., "expansionary austerity":
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansionary_fiscal_contraction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansionary_fiscal_contractio...
Others predicted it would not, and turned out correct:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity:_The_History_of_a_Dangerous_Idea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity:_The_History_of_a_Da...
Amsterdam ended up running a bit of an 'experiment' on what happens when you tried banning houses owned by investors:
* https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/3913/1/Master%20Thesis%20final%20version%20Pieter%20Reitsma%2017-7-2022.pdf https://frw.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/3913/1/Master%20Thesis%2...
* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4480261 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4480261
* Via: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRqZBuu_Ers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRqZBuu_Ers
There are "schools" that put forward various models that get it right more than wrong. The fact that some people ignore things for ideological purposes is not the fault of the field in general, or of those that actually try to get their models to match reality.
In fact a lot of the time people know that what they're putting forward is wrong:
> Ronald Reagan launched his 1980 campaign for the presidency on a platform advocating for supply-side economics. During the 1980 Republican Party presidential primaries, George H. W. Bush had derided Reagan's economic approach as "voodoo economics".[23][24] Following Reagan's election, the "trickle-down" reached wide circulation with the publication of "The Education of David Stockman" a December 1981 interview of Reagan's incoming Office of Management and Budget director David Stockman, in the magazine Atlantic Monthly. In the interview, Stockman expressed doubts about supply side economics, telling journalist William Greider that the Kemp–Roth Tax Cut was a way to rebrand a tax cut for the top income bracket to make it easier to pass into law.[25] Stockman said that "It's kind of hard to sell 'trickle down,' so the supply-side formula was the only way to get a tax policy that was really 'trickle down.' Supply-side is 'trickle-down' theory."[25][26][27]
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trickle-down_economics#Reagan_years https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trickle-down_economics#Reagan_...
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply-side_economics
- littlestymaar 2y ago> Economics is falsifiable. I'm sorry but you can't say that about a field that gave a “Nobel” prize to Fama, shared with Shiller for his work which falsified Fama's. And your following “effect of QE” example is actually a great example of the problem: pretty much none of the people who made wrong prediction retracted themselves, most of them still believe they were right but the reality just happened to turn otherwise.
- throw0101d 2y ago> I'm sorry but you can't say that about a field that gave a “Nobel” prize to Fama, shared with Shiller for his work which falsified Fama's. Or it shows things are complicated. I once read the remark from a physicist (Feynman?): My job would be much harder if particles had free will. Which is exactly what economics is trying to model: there are aggregate trends that tend to be followed (on average) by larger number of people, but there are plenty of folks off in the tails of the curve doing strange things (sometimes out of spite: see Gamestop and /r/wallstreetbets). I participate in personal finance sub-Reddits, and during March 2020 when the world was going sideways, and markets were going crazy (e.g., oil prices went negative) there were a lot of people panicing about their retirement savings. There was a lot of explaining to people that they should not liquidate their investments, but just to ride it out, and you'll be fine over the long run: * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market... A lot of people also learned that they weren't as comfortable with the risk of being in 100% equities as they thought. Another regular question in those forums "I got an inheritance and want to invest, but markets are at an all-time high." Well, the 'mathematically correct' answer would be to do a lump sum and put it in all at once: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/dollar-cost-averaging-vs-lump-sum/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/dollar-cost-averaging-vs-lump-s... But most people aren't comfortable with that, so you tell them "DCA is fine" because waiting for the market to dip is worse than DCA: * https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co... > And your following “effect of QE” example is actually a great example of the problem: pretty much none of the people who made wrong prediction retracted themselves, most of them still believe they were right but the reality just happened to turn otherwise. Yes. See also Flat Earthers. But their existence does not invalidate the fields geology or astronomy. This is true in all sorts of areas in life. I live in Ontario, Canada and the provincial government made a controversial splash† recently about ripping out bikes lanes to put in more lanes to improve traffic flow, never mind the decades of data on the topic: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downs–Thomson_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downs–Thomson_paradox Do their actions invalidate the fields of urban planning and traffic engineering? † It's really just a move to distract folks from incompetence on other topics.