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Why the 'Sleeping Beauty Problem' Is Keeping Mathematicians Awake
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- uberman 2y agoThis strikes me like the Monty Hall problem where people intuitively believe the answer to be 50/50. Does this not simulate the problem in python? import random coin = ["heads", "tails"] guess = "heads" guesses_correct = 0 wakings = 0 n = 1_000_000 for _ in range(n): actual = random.choice(coin) if actual == guess: wakings += 1 guesses_correct += 1 else: wakings += 2 print(f"guessed correctly: {guesses_correct/wakings:0.2f}%")
- foweltschmerz 2y agoNot really. Unlike the monty hall problem, sleeping beauty receives no additional information. The thought experiment was originally brought up to illustrate how a perfectly rational agent’s credence in the relevance of her temporal position to some proposition can change over time even though she receives no new information nor suffers from a cognitive mishap. This point is more evident in the original paper by Elga: https://swh.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pdf https://swh.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pd...