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The board wants to split the company, the CEO didn't. That's what the fight was about. Should Intel become a design company? And have TSMC do everything? I

The board wants to split the company, the CEO didn't. That's what the fight was about. Should Intel become a design company? And have TSMC do everything? IMHO, nope. The rot in Intel happened a long time ago, the smart people left a long time ago, and the culture changed for the worse. They would have to spend ridiculous amount of money to lure smart folks from Nvidia & AMD, etc. Then the difficult battle of building a winning culture. I was long intel for a while. I unloaded all my stocks this year. I don't believe anymore, and I'm not even convinced with the CEO change.

djmips 2y ago
Have they announced a new permanent CEO? The two headed marketing/finance interim co-CEOs didn't give me any warm and fuzzies.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> would have to spend ridiculous amount of money to lure smart folks from Nvidia & AMD, etc. Versus competing with TSMC and potentially ASML?
- segmondy 2y ago
  they and TSMC don't compete with ASML. If you have the time, read "Chip wars" that will definitely convince you that USA needs a local chip maker and a Fab if the wish to retain their superpower position. Prior to reading the book, I'll agree and say to hell with the fabs. Just design and let TSMC make it. After reading the book, USA needs a miracle.
  - Iulioh 2y ago
    On the top end ASML have no competition, on the lower end (45nm node and bigger) it has Canon and Nikon. That's all.
    - throw3827364 2y ago
      There's SMEE.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > they and TSMC don't compete with ASML Competing with TSMC using ASML’s kit means beating them on input costs, operations and/or distribution. That’s doable but tougher and more ephemeral than having a technological moat. (It’s Herculean given TSMC’s scale.) If someone wants to take on TSMC, they should be looking at leapfrogging or sidestepping ASML in a differentiating way. Not out of the gate. But in a PA Semi sort of way.
    - segmondy 2y ago
      ASML has no competition, you will have an easier time replacing TSMC before doing ASML. Frankly, I think they should do a hybrid approach, have TSMC do some stuff and keep refining their own Fab till they figure it out.
      - iszomer 2y ago
        I think you may have overlooked the rest of it's "supply chain" -- perhaps hundreds if not thousands of other inputs necessary to run TSMC and not just doubling down on ASML's cruciality alone.
screye 2y ago
To be clear, Pat was pretty clear about it from the beginning and the industry experts mostly agreed with the board's push to split up the company. From stratchery. > Given this, you can make the case that Gelsinger was never the right person for the job; shortly after he took over I wrote in Intel Problems that the company needed to be split up, but he told me in a 2022 Stratechery Interview that he — and the board — weren’t interested in that:
- 7speter 2y ago
  Doesn’t the foundry rely on money generated by the product side for research abd development funding? Where would that funding come from if the product side is a totally separate company?
  - bgnn 2y ago
    From other customers. TSMC took the lead with Apple funding for example.
    - dustyventure 2y ago
      But where is TSMC going? As far as I can understand it, they would need to rely on geopolitical argument to take customers away from TSMC and I think that's either ultra low volume or a frigid global environment where global trade is winding down.
      - bgnn 2y ago
        Yeah only viable way is to be able to compete with TSMC. This requires 10s of billions of dollars of investment (capex amd NRE). This can work if Intel foundry is independent and open to do business with everyone. Apple loves to have a second supplier, nVidia too would love the extra capacity.
  - Zigurd 2y ago
    The foundry also very much relies on Intel as a customer, and as a semi captive customer who is tolerant of the fab climbing the yield curve using Intel wafers to bring that up. I don't know if the board has thought this through.
dogma1138 2y ago
They need to get all the talent that left and joined Apple’s silicon team back, IIRC they tried to get Srouji back by offering him the CEO position in 2020 but he stuck with Apple, I have a strong feeling they are probably going to make him the offer again, if he accepts and the Board doesn’t interfere Intel may as well come out of this swinging.
genmud 2y ago
I don't think that they should have TSMC do everything, but being coupled at the hip with the foundry business has not been, and is still not a winning strategy. If the foundry business could execute (in timelines, in yields, and in sales), then having a vertically integrated company makes a ton of sense. However, that has not been the case for a while and will take years to get them back in a position where they can execute on the foundry side. Right now the market and the board is dealing with the company equivalent of having your 25 year old kid stay their home rent-free, while spending tons of money, and getting piss drunk, then taking a shit on the hallway rug. At a certain point, you have to kick them out and tell them to get their life together, because the alternative is being homeless. What they are doing / have done is obviously not working, they aren't being judicious in their spending, they aren't innovating, and everything is being dragged down due to institutional mediocrity.

djmips 2y ago

Have they announced a new permanent CEO? The two headed marketing/finance interim co-CEOs didn't give me any warm and fuzzies.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> would have to spend ridiculous amount of money to lure smart folks from Nvidia & AMD, etc. Versus competing with TSMC and potentially ASML?

segmondy 2y ago
they and TSMC don't compete with ASML. If you have the time, read "Chip wars" that will definitely convince you that USA needs a local chip maker and a Fab if the wish to retain their superpower position. Prior to reading the book, I'll agree and say to hell with the fabs. Just design and let TSMC make it. After reading the book, USA needs a miracle.
- Iulioh 2y ago
  On the top end ASML have no competition, on the lower end (45nm node and bigger) it has Canon and Nikon. That's all.
  - throw3827364 2y ago
    There's SMEE.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > they and TSMC don't compete with ASML Competing with TSMC using ASML’s kit means beating them on input costs, operations and/or distribution. That’s doable but tougher and more ephemeral than having a technological moat. (It’s Herculean given TSMC’s scale.) If someone wants to take on TSMC, they should be looking at leapfrogging or sidestepping ASML in a differentiating way. Not out of the gate. But in a PA Semi sort of way.
  - segmondy 2y ago
    ASML has no competition, you will have an easier time replacing TSMC before doing ASML. Frankly, I think they should do a hybrid approach, have TSMC do some stuff and keep refining their own Fab till they figure it out.
    - iszomer 2y ago
      I think you may have overlooked the rest of it's "supply chain" -- perhaps hundreds if not thousands of other inputs necessary to run TSMC and not just doubling down on ASML's cruciality alone.

screye 2y ago

To be clear, Pat was pretty clear about it from the beginning and the industry experts mostly agreed with the board's push to split up the company. From stratchery. > Given this, you can make the case that Gelsinger was never the right person for the job; shortly after he took over I wrote in Intel Problems that the company needed to be split up, but he told me in a 2022 Stratechery Interview that he — and the board — weren’t interested in that:

7speter 2y ago
Doesn’t the foundry rely on money generated by the product side for research abd development funding? Where would that funding come from if the product side is a totally separate company?
- bgnn 2y ago
  From other customers. TSMC took the lead with Apple funding for example.
  - dustyventure 2y ago
    But where is TSMC going? As far as I can understand it, they would need to rely on geopolitical argument to take customers away from TSMC and I think that's either ultra low volume or a frigid global environment where global trade is winding down.
    - bgnn 2y ago
      Yeah only viable way is to be able to compete with TSMC. This requires 10s of billions of dollars of investment (capex amd NRE). This can work if Intel foundry is independent and open to do business with everyone. Apple loves to have a second supplier, nVidia too would love the extra capacity.
- Zigurd 2y ago
  The foundry also very much relies on Intel as a customer, and as a semi captive customer who is tolerant of the fab climbing the yield curve using Intel wafers to bring that up. I don't know if the board has thought this through.

dogma1138 2y ago

They need to get all the talent that left and joined Apple’s silicon team back, IIRC they tried to get Srouji back by offering him the CEO position in 2020 but he stuck with Apple, I have a strong feeling they are probably going to make him the offer again, if he accepts and the Board doesn’t interfere Intel may as well come out of this swinging.

genmud 2y ago

I don't think that they should have TSMC do everything, but being coupled at the hip with the foundry business has not been, and is still not a winning strategy. If the foundry business could execute (in timelines, in yields, and in sales), then having a vertically integrated company makes a ton of sense. However, that has not been the case for a while and will take years to get them back in a position where they can execute on the foundry side. Right now the market and the board is dealing with the company equivalent of having your 25 year old kid stay their home rent-free, while spending tons of money, and getting piss drunk, then taking a shit on the hallway rug. At a certain point, you have to kick them out and tell them to get their life together, because the alternative is being homeless. What they are doing / have done is obviously not working, they aren't being judicious in their spending, they aren't innovating, and everything is being dragged down due to institutional mediocrity.