I would hope it's the 'persistence forecast' + x % better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting#Persistence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_

I would hope it's the 'persistence forecast' + x % better. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting#Persistence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting#Persistenc... IIRC the Metoffice in the UK does/did pay bonuses to staff based on modelling exceeding that criteria in a calendar year. Again, IIRC, in the UK the persistence forecast suggests something around 200-250 days of the year have the same weather as the previous day.