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I think it's still unlikely. In the case of the Manhattan project, the USA government wasn't racing against private companies but against other governments. The

by GTP 2y ago

I think it's still unlikely. In the case of the Manhattan project, the USA government wasn't racing against private companies but against other governments. Therefore, all advances in the field where highly secret. In this case, the CIA would be racing against private companies as well, which are hiring the best physicists and engineers too. So, while it's possible that a governmental agency is ahead of what it is publicly know, I doubt that they would be dramatically ahead. This is similar to part of the argument I would present if someone asks me why I believe cryptography in general is secure.

zelon88 2y ago
> In this case, the CIA would be racing against private companies as well... You mean like Skunkworks when they designed the SR-71? Or DARPA with Atlas? Or the DoD with the global GPS network? Or the NSA's ANT catalogue? Yeah, the government has never had any issues outpacing the private sector. You only ever find out about it when they want you to. Usually that happens 5 to 30 years after the market has already caught up.
- XorNot 2y ago
  All your examples consist of things no company has any commercial incentive to do. Airlines don't want high altitude supersonic spy planes, for example. And GPS is a collective action problem: no one wants to pay for it, but we do all benefit from it being ambiently around.