4 ms·
For completeness, my statement above that > 700k was much worse than an average season is incorrect, since it falsely implies the 700k was just from one seaso
by tripletao 2y ago
For completeness, my statement above that
> 700k was much worse than an average season
is incorrect, since it falsely implies the 700k was just from one season. The 1977-78 season did show excess mortality in some estimates, though it's not clear whether that was from the H1N1 or the co-circulating H3N2 (which was probably a minority of the infections, but a majority of the infections in older people at highest risk of death, due to their prior immunity from 1957 and earlier). Mortality in the <19 age group reached its all-time high, around 2.4x average; that's a tiny share of the total (just 234 deaths), but perhaps an interesting gauge of the H1N1 spread.
Unless I'm missing something, I do believe the 700k has travelled remarkably far with remarkably weak provenance, and I appreciate the push to investigate that. Perhaps there's just no one with any incentive to correct it--for authors opposing high-risk virological research it's impressively large enough, while authors supporting such research don't wish to draw attention to this mortality at all. I don't think the exact number changes much practically, but I'd still rather not perpetuate that carelessness.