4 ms·

There are (crappy, dangerous-seeming) genuine full autonomous-assuming-you-don't-count-remote-safety-drivers Waymos on the street where I live, in volume, for a

There are (crappy, dangerous-seeming) genuine full autonomous-assuming-you-don't-count-remote-safety-drivers Waymos on the street where I live, in volume, for a while now. Tesla's equivalent system appears to be 100% vaporware. I don't understand the case for them not being far behind.

spankalee 2y ago
Waymo doesn't have remote divers of any sort.
- bcoates 2y ago
  Maybe they should then, I was blaming humans for the unsafe/illegal right turns and deranged maneuvering in the presence of lights and sirens firetrucks.
- karlgkk 2y ago
  Well of course they don’t have remote divers: they don’t operate underwater
Petersipoi 2y ago
That means you live in 1 of like 6 cities in the world. Kind of hard to compare Waymo's approach and Tesla's approach and accurately judge how far ahead Waymo is. Come to my city and you will see exactly 0 Waymo's. And it isn't clear to me if it's much easier for Waymo to scale from 6 cities to tens of thousands of cities or for Tesla to scale from tens of thousands of cities to tens of thousands of cities but better. My gut tells me Waymo is ahead, probably by a good amount. But calling Telsa FSD "vaporware" is absurd, and leads me to the same conclusion that GP already called out.
- bcoates 2y ago
  The equivalent system is no driver in car at all, and unless there's some trial I don't know about, Tesla's product that does that is announced but not existing anywhere, 0 cities, 0 cars. the definition of vaporware.
- karlgkk 2y ago
  I don’t think FSD is vaporware, but I believe it has been massively overpromised and underdelivered. And also, I have reason to believe its going to require yet another major hardware revision - despite teslas protestations
  - purplethinking 2y ago
    Have a look at V13.2 and tell me they "underdelivered". This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. It's essentially DriveGPT, trained on absolutely massive amounts of training data on the largest GPU super cluster in the world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.
    - karlgkk 2y ago
      First of all, I notice that you didn't take issue with my saying another major hardware revision is due - despite Tesla's constant promises that "we totally can do it with this one bro" for the last 4 revisions. I have been following closely. 13.2 is a major leap forward. It is VERY impressive. It's also five years late. It's got some serious issues, such as intervention rates (which, despite being massively lower, are still too high). It has trouble in California-style adverse weather conditions. This is largely due to it's vision based sensors. And by the way, I'm not saying they're not going to "pull it off". I think they're one of the few that will succeed, to be honest. I'm saying that it is nowhere close to where it needs to be to match Tesla's promises. > This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. That is a bold claim, and one that I don't think is true. Tied for first or just second most advanced, I would absolutely believe. And certainly one of the five major players. It's also missing some key customer service and realtime service components, that took Waymo over 4 years to roll out and fine tune. And Waymo is still having edge case issues! > Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive. That understates his repeated broken and aggressive promises, often made during investor meetings. It makes it hard to believe his claims about the future.
      - 2y ago

spankalee 2y ago

Waymo doesn't have remote divers of any sort.

bcoates 2y ago
Maybe they should then, I was blaming humans for the unsafe/illegal right turns and deranged maneuvering in the presence of lights and sirens firetrucks.
karlgkk 2y ago
Well of course they don’t have remote divers: they don’t operate underwater

Petersipoi 2y ago

That means you live in 1 of like 6 cities in the world. Kind of hard to compare Waymo's approach and Tesla's approach and accurately judge how far ahead Waymo is. Come to my city and you will see exactly 0 Waymo's. And it isn't clear to me if it's much easier for Waymo to scale from 6 cities to tens of thousands of cities or for Tesla to scale from tens of thousands of cities to tens of thousands of cities but better. My gut tells me Waymo is ahead, probably by a good amount. But calling Telsa FSD "vaporware" is absurd, and leads me to the same conclusion that GP already called out.

bcoates 2y ago
The equivalent system is no driver in car at all, and unless there's some trial I don't know about, Tesla's product that does that is announced but not existing anywhere, 0 cities, 0 cars. the definition of vaporware.
karlgkk 2y ago
I don’t think FSD is vaporware, but I believe it has been massively overpromised and underdelivered. And also, I have reason to believe its going to require yet another major hardware revision - despite teslas protestations
- purplethinking 2y ago
  Have a look at V13.2 and tell me they "underdelivered". This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. It's essentially DriveGPT, trained on absolutely massive amounts of training data on the largest GPU super cluster in the world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.
  - karlgkk 2y ago
    First of all, I notice that you didn't take issue with my saying another major hardware revision is due - despite Tesla's constant promises that "we totally can do it with this one bro" for the last 4 revisions. I have been following closely. 13.2 is a major leap forward. It is VERY impressive. It's also five years late. It's got some serious issues, such as intervention rates (which, despite being massively lower, are still too high). It has trouble in California-style adverse weather conditions. This is largely due to it's vision based sensors. And by the way, I'm not saying they're not going to "pull it off". I think they're one of the few that will succeed, to be honest. I'm saying that it is nowhere close to where it needs to be to match Tesla's promises. > This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. That is a bold claim, and one that I don't think is true. Tied for first or just second most advanced, I would absolutely believe. And certainly one of the five major players. It's also missing some key customer service and realtime service components, that took Waymo over 4 years to roll out and fine tune. And Waymo is still having edge case issues! > Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive. That understates his repeated broken and aggressive promises, often made during investor meetings. It makes it hard to believe his claims about the future.
    - 2y ago