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Yes there are actual "legal" notions of driver assistance "levels," but out of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. Elon has a high

Yes there are actual "legal" notions of driver assistance "levels," but out of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. Elon has a high conviction in the product and has continued to pour billions of dollars in GPUs, talent, supply chains, etc to make it happen. Other manufacturers don't take it nearly as seriously, unfortunately. Sure you might not be able to legally claim that a Tesla is totally "autonomous," but the fact of the matter (to me, at least) is that they are putting in way more effort to solve the problem than legacy auto manufacturers are. I can step into a Tesla today, press a destination, and go there without touching the wheel or pedals. Sure it won't be flawless but the fact is, I can. I can't do the same in any other consumer car, and the closest thing is a Waymo. The effort is there, I think its just a matter of time before we start seeing the legal stuff play out.

jefftk 2y ago
I think there's some chance that Tesla's approach will work out for them, but I'm not optimistic. Getting self-driving software to "impressively good" happened pretty quickly, and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test. But from there to "as safe as a human" let alone "as safe as we require human-replacing machines to be" turns out to be quite a hard gap to cross.
- fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
  There’s no comparison between what was available when I bought my Tesla in 2020 and what I have today.
  - jefftk 2y ago
    When you say "what was available" do you mean what a Tesla was capable of? Because I was trying to talk about things like Cruise driving for 90min at night in a city with no intervention: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA
    - fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
      If you let me pick the roads, I could easily drive 90 minutes at night with no intervention in the LA area: driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX can be done basically with no interventions no problem today. It could be done with EAP two years ago too. But, FSD works well on essentially arbitrary roads and it didn't four years ago.
      - jefftk 2y ago
        > driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX That's a lot simpler than what Cruise showed in their video. Dealing well with pedestrians, stopped cars, cross streets, etc are a significant challenge.
        fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
        That basically works today, my point is that there was a step change in ability over the last year or two compared to when I got my car.
- grmarcil 2y ago
  > systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test Can you give an example? I'm not aware of anything in 2016 that would consistently pass this test.
  - michaelt 2y ago
    Well, there's consistently and there's consistently. In 2016 Waymo reported their safety drivers intervening once for every 5,100 miles driven [1] - which implies to me that 99% of journeys nobody touched the wheel or pedals. The problem is 99% isn't enough, as there are tremendous numbers of cars out there, and a busy bit of freeway would get a disengagement per minute. [1] https://driverless.wonderhowto.com/news/2016-disengagement-reports-show-waymo-absolutely-crushing-competition-every-single-metric-0176110/ https://driverless.wonderhowto.com/news/2016-disengagement-r...
    - norlygfyd 2y ago
      They Waymo trick is entirely different to FSD. They are travelling pre-mapped streets.
      - misiti3780 2y ago
        with remote controller drivers on an as needed basis
      - michaelt 2y ago
        You've used Google Street View, right? It might be missing a few logging roads, private driveways and carpark lanes - but it shows Google is entirely capable of mapping streets in detail all over the world.
- kortilla 2y ago
  > and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test This is complete bullshit. The systems in 2016 were restricted to pre-mapped areas with lots of training. (i.e. the waymo/cruise approach today) So if you weren’t in a tiny slice of San Francisco or a few other training areas, this didn’t work.
  - jefftk 2y ago
    Even if an area is pre-mapped, if you're operating on public streets you need to handle all sorts of unusual things. Here's a Cruise video recorded in 2016 on SF streets, showing a tricky interactions with buses, stopped delivery vehicles, pedestrians, etc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4
    - kortilla 2y ago
      Yeah, I’m not saying they weren’t doing impressive things. I’m saying they were still severely limited and would not be capable of a “go around without touching the wheel/brakes test” like a Tesla can in the entire US now.
sangnoir 2y ago
> Yes there are actual "legal" notions of driver assistance "levels," but out of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. ..and yet Tesla is quick to blame the drivers when accidents happen - and has disclaimers for supervision in its TOS. Mercedes on the other hand, takes all responsibility for eventualities that happen while self-driving is engaged (DrivePilot - not ADAS)
- iknowstuff 2y ago
  You fell for Mercedes’ marketing. Its useless.
pelorat 2y ago
From what I've seen, Tesla FSD would fail a driving test here in the EU within the 1st minute. Even the latest and greatest version behaves like a drunk teenager.
- frankacter 2y ago
  I'm not in EU so I can't comment if they have a special circumstance that makes there driving test different than elsewhere in the world, but "behaving like a drunk teenager" is not a descriptor I would use. I make use of Tesla FSD every day, 2 -3 times a day. Over the last few months I've had to engage (of my own choosing) twice, otherwise it is completely hands and foot off experience. I travel hundred miles a day on average on a mix of local and highway, but all major roads in city and suburb.
  - zeusk 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - 7thpower 2y ago
      Why? And I’m curious if you would you pay more or less to avoid people who are texting/reading while driving? What about people who make snarky comments to posters who are sharing their experiences in good faith?
      - zeusk 2y ago
        Would definitely pay more to avoid FSD pilots, because the texters sense their surroundings more often than the drivers lulled by false advertisement and (at-best) beta grade software. The snarky posters can stay, doesn't hurt my life or property.
  - ninalanyon 2y ago
    Driving tests in Europe, certainly in northern Europe and Scandinavia, are considerably stricter than in the US and many other places in the world. In Norway the test is also not enough, there is also obligatory practice with a qualified instructor including driving on motorways and on a skid pan to simulate driving on ice.
FabHK 2y ago
> of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. You call lying about it endlessly, misleading marketing, beta-testing on public roads, and not even having L3 properly in production "taking it the most seriously"?
- ForHackernews 2y ago
  Yes: Only Tesla is willing to sacrifice human lives today for the dream of robo-driving in the future.
  - edm0nd 2y ago
    Sometimes ya gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette
- boshalfoshal 2y ago
  No, I'm mostly referring to buying talent and GPUs. I can't point to a single Andrej Karpathy or Chris Lattner or Jim Keller working at Mercedes, BMW, GM, etc (not to mention the not so big named people who are still very very good). And I also don't see many people crossing over from legacy auto autonomous orgs to openai, anthropic, deepmind, etc. Other manufacturers don't have custom in car inference chips either, or spend billions in R&D for custom training silicon. This is clearly not a side project for Tesla, whereas with other manufacturers, its an obvious afterthought. My guess is other manufacturers will just license some AV product from whoever is most successful and try to sell products like they always have - through design language and brand feel, not through breakthrough technological innovation. So yes, I don't think any other consumer car manufacturer is taking it seriously.
threeseed 2y ago
> Elon has a high conviction in the product and has continued to pour billions of dollars in GPUs, talent, supply chains, etc to make it happen But that has been invested in X.ai not Tesla.

jefftk 2y ago

I think there's some chance that Tesla's approach will work out for them, but I'm not optimistic. Getting self-driving software to "impressively good" happened pretty quickly, and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test. But from there to "as safe as a human" let alone "as safe as we require human-replacing machines to be" turns out to be quite a hard gap to cross.

fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
There’s no comparison between what was available when I bought my Tesla in 2020 and what I have today.
- jefftk 2y ago
  When you say "what was available" do you mean what a Tesla was capable of? Because I was trying to talk about things like Cruise driving for 90min at night in a city with no intervention: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA
  - fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
    If you let me pick the roads, I could easily drive 90 minutes at night with no intervention in the LA area: driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX can be done basically with no interventions no problem today. It could be done with EAP two years ago too. But, FSD works well on essentially arbitrary roads and it didn't four years ago.
    - jefftk 2y ago
      > driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX That's a lot simpler than what Cruise showed in their video. Dealing well with pedestrians, stopped cars, cross streets, etc are a significant challenge.
      - fiddlerwoaroof 2y ago
        That basically works today, my point is that there was a step change in ability over the last year or two compared to when I got my car.
grmarcil 2y ago
> systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test Can you give an example? I'm not aware of anything in 2016 that would consistently pass this test.
- michaelt 2y ago
  Well, there's consistently and there's consistently. In 2016 Waymo reported their safety drivers intervening once for every 5,100 miles driven [1] - which implies to me that 99% of journeys nobody touched the wheel or pedals. The problem is 99% isn't enough, as there are tremendous numbers of cars out there, and a busy bit of freeway would get a disengagement per minute. [1] https://driverless.wonderhowto.com/news/2016-disengagement-reports-show-waymo-absolutely-crushing-competition-every-single-metric-0176110/ https://driverless.wonderhowto.com/news/2016-disengagement-r...
  - norlygfyd 2y ago
    They Waymo trick is entirely different to FSD. They are travelling pre-mapped streets.
    - misiti3780 2y ago
      with remote controller drivers on an as needed basis
    - michaelt 2y ago
      You've used Google Street View, right? It might be missing a few logging roads, private driveways and carpark lanes - but it shows Google is entirely capable of mapping streets in detail all over the world.
kortilla 2y ago
> and even systems from 2016 would usually pass your "go there without touching the wheel or pedals" test This is complete bullshit. The systems in 2016 were restricted to pre-mapped areas with lots of training. (i.e. the waymo/cruise approach today) So if you weren’t in a tiny slice of San Francisco or a few other training areas, this didn’t work.
- jefftk 2y ago
  Even if an area is pre-mapped, if you're operating on public streets you need to handle all sorts of unusual things. Here's a Cruise video recorded in 2016 on SF streets, showing a tricky interactions with buses, stopped delivery vehicles, pedestrians, etc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tp6Ubf6mE4
  - kortilla 2y ago
    Yeah, I’m not saying they weren’t doing impressive things. I’m saying they were still severely limited and would not be capable of a “go around without touching the wheel/brakes test” like a Tesla can in the entire US now.

sangnoir 2y ago

> Yes there are actual "legal" notions of driver assistance "levels," but out of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. ..and yet Tesla is quick to blame the drivers when accidents happen - and has disclaimers for supervision in its TOS. Mercedes on the other hand, takes all responsibility for eventualities that happen while self-driving is engaged (DrivePilot - not ADAS)

iknowstuff 2y ago
You fell for Mercedes’ marketing. Its useless.

pelorat 2y ago

From what I've seen, Tesla FSD would fail a driving test here in the EU within the 1st minute. Even the latest and greatest version behaves like a drunk teenager.

frankacter 2y ago
I'm not in EU so I can't comment if they have a special circumstance that makes there driving test different than elsewhere in the world, but "behaving like a drunk teenager" is not a descriptor I would use. I make use of Tesla FSD every day, 2 -3 times a day. Over the last few months I've had to engage (of my own choosing) twice, otherwise it is completely hands and foot off experience. I travel hundred miles a day on average on a mix of local and highway, but all major roads in city and suburb.
- zeusk 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - 7thpower 2y ago
    Why? And I’m curious if you would you pay more or less to avoid people who are texting/reading while driving? What about people who make snarky comments to posters who are sharing their experiences in good faith?
    - zeusk 2y ago
      Would definitely pay more to avoid FSD pilots, because the texters sense their surroundings more often than the drivers lulled by false advertisement and (at-best) beta grade software. The snarky posters can stay, doesn't hurt my life or property.
- ninalanyon 2y ago
  Driving tests in Europe, certainly in northern Europe and Scandinavia, are considerably stricter than in the US and many other places in the world. In Norway the test is also not enough, there is also obligatory practice with a qualified instructor including driving on motorways and on a skid pan to simulate driving on ice.

FabHK 2y ago

> of those 3 companies Tesla seems to be taking it the most seriously. You call lying about it endlessly, misleading marketing, beta-testing on public roads, and not even having L3 properly in production "taking it the most seriously"?

ForHackernews 2y ago
Yes: Only Tesla is willing to sacrifice human lives today for the dream of robo-driving in the future.
- edm0nd 2y ago
  Sometimes ya gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette
boshalfoshal 2y ago
No, I'm mostly referring to buying talent and GPUs. I can't point to a single Andrej Karpathy or Chris Lattner or Jim Keller working at Mercedes, BMW, GM, etc (not to mention the not so big named people who are still very very good). And I also don't see many people crossing over from legacy auto autonomous orgs to openai, anthropic, deepmind, etc. Other manufacturers don't have custom in car inference chips either, or spend billions in R&D for custom training silicon. This is clearly not a side project for Tesla, whereas with other manufacturers, its an obvious afterthought. My guess is other manufacturers will just license some AV product from whoever is most successful and try to sell products like they always have - through design language and brand feel, not through breakthrough technological innovation. So yes, I don't think any other consumer car manufacturer is taking it seriously.

threeseed 2y ago

> Elon has a high conviction in the product and has continued to pour billions of dollars in GPUs, talent, supply chains, etc to make it happen But that has been invested in X.ai not Tesla.