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It's not even close between Tesla and Waymo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s Arguably this is Waymo in

It's not even close between Tesla and Waymo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s Arguably this is Waymo in its "home turf"

deleted 2y ago
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mbreese 2y ago
Arguably, it would be a better comparison if the Tesla was restricted from highway driving. I understand the letting the car figure out its own route, but I’m more interested in seeing the Tesla navigate city streets.
adrr 2y ago
Tesla can't self drive in any condition on any street. Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement. Being a owner FSD, its no where near being able to drive itself without supervision, it tries to run reds, misses people in cross walks and can't understand signs like "Do Not Enter".
- minhazm 2y ago
  > Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo. And even then the definition is not quite clear, because these are safety disengagements from what I can tell, and not disengagements for things like getting stuck because the road is closed or something else. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/ https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/
  - danans 2y ago
    > This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo Tesla doesn't reveal it's miles/disengagement stats, but according to crowdsourced data it's 690-828 miles between critical disengagement [1], which is 2 orders of magnitude worse than the Waymo number you posted, and far below their goal of besting human drivers' abilities. 1. https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild-things-about-teslas-self-driving-rollout/ https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild...
    - bushbaba 2y ago
      Regardless we are probably about 10-50x the disengagement rate needed. It’s about 1 accidents every 500k miles for a human driver.
      - danans 2y ago
        Your 1 accident per 500k miles stat is an average across urban and rural areas. But accident rates in urban areas are likely significantly higher than in non-urban areas, due to higher vehicle density/congestion, despite the fact that vehicle accident fatality rates are higher in rural areas[1]. Urban areas tend to have a lot more low-speed no-injury or mild-injury collisions. When you account for all of those, AVs are in shooting distance of human driver accident rates in urban areas. Also, the accident rates are much higher for drunk, sleepy, or distracted drivers, so to the extent AVs reduce those types of driving, they bring the overall accident rates down much further. 1. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/813599#:~:text=In%202022%20the%20fatality%20rate,areas%20(1.68%20versus%201.15).&text=About%20two%2Dthirds%20(64%25),of%2025%2C023)%20in%20urban%20areas https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8135....

It's not even close between Tesla and Waymo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s Arguably this is Waymo in its "home turf"

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

mbreese 2y ago

Arguably, it would be a better comparison if the Tesla was restricted from highway driving. I understand the letting the car figure out its own route, but I’m more interested in seeing the Tesla navigate city streets.

adrr 2y ago

Tesla can't self drive in any condition on any street. Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement. Being a owner FSD, its no where near being able to drive itself without supervision, it tries to run reds, misses people in cross walks and can't understand signs like "Do Not Enter".

minhazm 2y ago
> Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo. And even then the definition is not quite clear, because these are safety disengagements from what I can tell, and not disengagements for things like getting stuck because the road is closed or something else. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/ https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/
- danans 2y ago
  > This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo Tesla doesn't reveal it's miles/disengagement stats, but according to crowdsourced data it's 690-828 miles between critical disengagement [1], which is 2 orders of magnitude worse than the Waymo number you posted, and far below their goal of besting human drivers' abilities. 1. https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild-things-about-teslas-self-driving-rollout/ https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild...
  - bushbaba 2y ago
    Regardless we are probably about 10-50x the disengagement rate needed. It’s about 1 accidents every 500k miles for a human driver.
    - danans 2y ago
      Your 1 accident per 500k miles stat is an average across urban and rural areas. But accident rates in urban areas are likely significantly higher than in non-urban areas, due to higher vehicle density/congestion, despite the fact that vehicle accident fatality rates are higher in rural areas[1]. Urban areas tend to have a lot more low-speed no-injury or mild-injury collisions. When you account for all of those, AVs are in shooting distance of human driver accident rates in urban areas. Also, the accident rates are much higher for drunk, sleepy, or distracted drivers, so to the extent AVs reduce those types of driving, they bring the overall accident rates down much further. 1. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/813599#:~:text=In%202022%20the%20fatality%20rate,areas%20(1.68%20versus%201.15).&text=About%20two%2Dthirds%20(64%25),of%2025%2C023)%20in%20urban%20areas https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8135....