6 ms·

Supercruise might be comparable to Tesla's "Autosteer" product but its incomparable to Tesla's paid "FSD Supervised" product. The latter is closer to a Waymo or

Supercruise might be comparable to Tesla's "Autosteer" product but its incomparable to Tesla's paid "FSD Supervised" product. The latter is closer to a Waymo or Cruise than it is to a Mercedes or GM driver assist.

jaimex2 2y ago
It's not even close between Tesla and Waymo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s Arguably this is Waymo in its "home turf"
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- mbreese 2y ago
  Arguably, it would be a better comparison if the Tesla was restricted from highway driving. I understand the letting the car figure out its own route, but I’m more interested in seeing the Tesla navigate city streets.
- adrr 2y ago
  Tesla can't self drive in any condition on any street. Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement. Being a owner FSD, its no where near being able to drive itself without supervision, it tries to run reds, misses people in cross walks and can't understand signs like "Do Not Enter".
  - minhazm 2y ago
    > Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo. And even then the definition is not quite clear, because these are safety disengagements from what I can tell, and not disengagements for things like getting stuck because the road is closed or something else. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/ https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/
    - danans 2y ago
      > This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo Tesla doesn't reveal it's miles/disengagement stats, but according to crowdsourced data it's 690-828 miles between critical disengagement [1], which is 2 orders of magnitude worse than the Waymo number you posted, and far below their goal of besting human drivers' abilities. 1. https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild-things-about-teslas-self-driving-rollout/ https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild...
      - bushbaba 2y ago
        Regardless we are probably about 10-50x the disengagement rate needed. It’s about 1 accidents every 500k miles for a human driver.
        danans 2y ago
        Your 1 accident per 500k miles stat is an average across urban and rural areas. But accident rates in urban areas are likely significantly higher than in non-urban areas, due to higher vehicle density/congestion, despite the fact that vehicle accident fatality rates are higher in rural areas[1]. Urban areas tend to have a lot more low-speed no-injury or mild-injury collisions. When you account for all of those, AVs are in shooting distance of human driver accident rates in urban areas. Also, the accident rates are much higher for drunk, sleepy, or distracted drivers, so to the extent AVs reduce those types of driving, they bring the overall accident rates down much further. 1. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/813599#:~:text=In%202022%20the%20fatality%20rate,areas%20(1.68%20versus%201.15).&text=About%20two%2Dthirds%20(64%25),of%2025%2C023)%20in%20urban%20areas https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8135....
jefftk 2y ago
> The latter is closer to a Waymo or Cruise than it is to a Mercedes or GM driver assist. It depends how you look at it, but in the (super limited) cases where you can use Mercedes Drive Pilot you can legally and safely read a book, watch a movie, or work while in the driver's seat. [1] That's not the case with any Tesla product. [1] https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot
- porphyra 2y ago
  The MB Drive Pilot only works at ridiculously low speeds (under 40 mph), on select highways, no sharp turns, no weather, no construction zones, lanes clearly visible, etc. It's laughable to compare it against FSD which works everywhere. FSD has been flawless when driving on such easy conditions for years.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    Are you assuming MB Drive Pilot couldn’t also work pretty well outside of its design domain? This argument is always so silly because it’s just an argument about the correct way to build a safe control system (i.e. with guaranteed performance characteristics in a defined operational domain) versus the incorrect way to do it (just kinda work over an ambiguously defined set of conditions and hope you don’t kill too many innocent people to cripple your business).
    - ivewonyoung 2y ago
      > Are you assuming MB Drive Pilot couldn’t also work pretty well outside of its design domain? Yes,that's a suppressed fact, not an assumption. It just follows the car in front. Check my other comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384114 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384114
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - 2y ago
PaulWaldman 2y ago
Eh, Tesls's FSD and Autopilot as well as GM's Supercruise are all classified as SAEJ3016 Automation Level 2.
- red75prime 2y ago
  Which tells approximately nothing about their relative capabilities. The fallback system is the driver (who needs to be ready to take over immediately) and the range of conditions for autonomous operation is better than Level 1.
  - danans 2y ago
    > the range of conditions for autonomous operation is better than Level 1. It better be, because Level 1 is satisfied with just cruise control with automatic braking.
m463 2y ago
I thought supercruise only worked on "qualified roads". Tesla autopilot 1.0 has been around on tesla since 2015. It's actually pretty good on the freeway as traffic aware cruise control + autosteer. I think it's a pretty good balance of driver + assist.

jaimex2 2y ago

It's not even close between Tesla and Waymo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9HtWUf27s Arguably this is Waymo in its "home turf"

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
mbreese 2y ago
Arguably, it would be a better comparison if the Tesla was restricted from highway driving. I understand the letting the car figure out its own route, but I’m more interested in seeing the Tesla navigate city streets.
adrr 2y ago
Tesla can't self drive in any condition on any street. Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement. Being a owner FSD, its no where near being able to drive itself without supervision, it tries to run reds, misses people in cross walks and can't understand signs like "Do Not Enter".
- minhazm 2y ago
  > Hard to compare that to a level 4 company where the car can go hundreds of thousands of miles without disengagement This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo. And even then the definition is not quite clear, because these are safety disengagements from what I can tell, and not disengagements for things like getting stuck because the road is closed or something else. [1] https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/ https://www.eetimes.com/waymo-cruise-dominate-av-testing/
  - danans 2y ago
    > This is nowhere close to being true. The latest numbers I could find for 2022 are 17,060 miles per disengagement[1] for Waymo Tesla doesn't reveal it's miles/disengagement stats, but according to crowdsourced data it's 690-828 miles between critical disengagement [1], which is 2 orders of magnitude worse than the Waymo number you posted, and far below their goal of besting human drivers' abilities. 1. https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild-things-about-teslas-self-driving-rollout/ https://electrek.co/2024/10/24/elon-musk-just-said-some-wild...
    - bushbaba 2y ago
      Regardless we are probably about 10-50x the disengagement rate needed. It’s about 1 accidents every 500k miles for a human driver.
      - danans 2y ago
        Your 1 accident per 500k miles stat is an average across urban and rural areas. But accident rates in urban areas are likely significantly higher than in non-urban areas, due to higher vehicle density/congestion, despite the fact that vehicle accident fatality rates are higher in rural areas[1]. Urban areas tend to have a lot more low-speed no-injury or mild-injury collisions. When you account for all of those, AVs are in shooting distance of human driver accident rates in urban areas. Also, the accident rates are much higher for drunk, sleepy, or distracted drivers, so to the extent AVs reduce those types of driving, they bring the overall accident rates down much further. 1. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/813599#:~:text=In%202022%20the%20fatality%20rate,areas%20(1.68%20versus%201.15).&text=About%20two%2Dthirds%20(64%25),of%2025%2C023)%20in%20urban%20areas https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/8135....

jefftk 2y ago

> The latter is closer to a Waymo or Cruise than it is to a Mercedes or GM driver assist. It depends how you look at it, but in the (super limited) cases where you can use Mercedes Drive Pilot you can legally and safely read a book, watch a movie, or work while in the driver's seat. [1] That's not the case with any Tesla product. [1] https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

porphyra 2y ago
The MB Drive Pilot only works at ridiculously low speeds (under 40 mph), on select highways, no sharp turns, no weather, no construction zones, lanes clearly visible, etc. It's laughable to compare it against FSD which works everywhere. FSD has been flawless when driving on such easy conditions for years.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  Are you assuming MB Drive Pilot couldn’t also work pretty well outside of its design domain? This argument is always so silly because it’s just an argument about the correct way to build a safe control system (i.e. with guaranteed performance characteristics in a defined operational domain) versus the incorrect way to do it (just kinda work over an ambiguously defined set of conditions and hope you don’t kill too many innocent people to cripple your business).
  - ivewonyoung 2y ago
    > Are you assuming MB Drive Pilot couldn’t also work pretty well outside of its design domain? Yes,that's a suppressed fact, not an assumption. It just follows the car in front. Check my other comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384114 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384114
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - 2y ago

PaulWaldman 2y ago

Eh, Tesls's FSD and Autopilot as well as GM's Supercruise are all classified as SAEJ3016 Automation Level 2.

red75prime 2y ago
Which tells approximately nothing about their relative capabilities. The fallback system is the driver (who needs to be ready to take over immediately) and the range of conditions for autonomous operation is better than Level 1.
- danans 2y ago
  > the range of conditions for autonomous operation is better than Level 1. It better be, because Level 1 is satisfied with just cruise control with automatic braking.

m463 2y ago

I thought supercruise only worked on "qualified roads". Tesla autopilot 1.0 has been around on tesla since 2015. It's actually pretty good on the freeway as traffic aware cruise control + autosteer. I think it's a pretty good balance of driver + assist.