6 ms·
Isn’t it kinda the other way around? I feel like the clock starts the first time a CyberCab gives a paid passenger ride, and that seems like quite a ways out —
by ketzo 2y ago
Isn’t it kinda the other way around? I feel like the clock starts the first time a CyberCab gives a paid passenger ride, and that seems like quite a ways out — potentially much more than 2 years.
And Waymo has that whole time to bring down their costs of construction, learn how to solve problems of scale, and so on.
I agree that a CyberCab would have structural advantages if the service were at parity w/ Waymo, but that is a very big hypothetical!
- kevindamm 2y agoMore than that, even -- Waymo is already transitioning to having partners that do the operations & maintenance work while they focus on the tech. I read this as a confidence in the tech timeline, strategy, and maturity. Meanwhile, Tesla's strategy is "hype, ???, deal with it." I know which one I'd back.
- fastball 2y agoSo I assume you've put your money where your mouth is and own GOOG and not TSLA.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- kortilla 2y agoConfidence in the timeline is one read. Lack of confidence and finding partners to shoulder the financial burden at the cost of lower upside is another.
- kevindamm 2y agoOr, identifying core competencies. Yeah, I could be wrong and they're just looking for the lowest risk profile. But, riders seem to be pleased and accident rate has been impressively low.
- sixQuarks 2y agoI would so love to do a bet with you, easy money. I’ll even take 2 to 1 odds
- delabay 2y ago"Tesla has a software problem, Waymo has a hardware problem" - Andrej Karpathi Is it easier to ramp to 1M vehicles a year and cut BOM costs by 80%, OR, install more GPUs and collect more data?
- datadrivenangel 2y agoIf you have to install the GPUs in each car, then you also have a hardware problem.
- delabay 2y agoTesla has been mass producing bespoke AI hardware for four generation. It's not a hardware problem for Tesla. They are a trillion dollar vertically integrated manufacturing powerhouse.
- datadrivenangel 2y agoNot an insurmountable problem for sure. If Level 4 self driving requires more compute in the car, someone has to physically put more compute in the car, which may require redesigning something to do retrofits, etc. A "FSD" car today may not actually have Full Level 4 Self Driving when Tesla finally rolls it out. Thus it's a hardware problem.
- ketzo 2y agoYou pose your comment like the answer is obvious, but I don’t know that it is. If Tesla can solve FSD with only cameras, then yes, their ability to scale is much better than Waymo’s. But that is a stupendously large “if”! I’ve seen the Karpathy quote before, and I think it’s kind of hilarious to compare one company which does X0,000 robotaxi rides per day, to another company which has a robotaxi maybe entering production in two years, and say, “well look, they both have problems!” Bit of a misleading simplification, no? Tesla boosters assume they will crack FSD, it’s just a matter of time. That seems like a big leap to me.
- 2y ago