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I don't see how Waymo is going to survive the onslaught that is CyberCab. Cheaper to build and operate, more efficient, much faster to build, and deployable acr
by fixprix 2y ago
I don't see how Waymo is going to survive the onslaught that is CyberCab. Cheaper to build and operate, more efficient, much faster to build, and deployable across all cities without any manual configuration. The clock is ticking on Waymo, they have 2 years to figure out how to compete otherwise they're cooked.
It's very similar to legacy space and internet, the existing players saw SpaceX coming years out, did nothing and got crushed.
- ketzo 2y agoIsn’t it kinda the other way around? I feel like the clock starts the first time a CyberCab gives a paid passenger ride, and that seems like quite a ways out — potentially much more than 2 years. And Waymo has that whole time to bring down their costs of construction, learn how to solve problems of scale, and so on. I agree that a CyberCab would have structural advantages if the service were at parity w/ Waymo, but that is a very big hypothetical!
- kevindamm 2y agoMore than that, even -- Waymo is already transitioning to having partners that do the operations & maintenance work while they focus on the tech. I read this as a confidence in the tech timeline, strategy, and maturity. Meanwhile, Tesla's strategy is "hype, ???, deal with it." I know which one I'd back.
- fastball 2y agoSo I assume you've put your money where your mouth is and own GOOG and not TSLA.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- kortilla 2y agoConfidence in the timeline is one read. Lack of confidence and finding partners to shoulder the financial burden at the cost of lower upside is another.
- kevindamm 2y agoOr, identifying core competencies. Yeah, I could be wrong and they're just looking for the lowest risk profile. But, riders seem to be pleased and accident rate has been impressively low.
- sixQuarks 2y agoI would so love to do a bet with you, easy money. I’ll even take 2 to 1 odds
- delabay 2y ago"Tesla has a software problem, Waymo has a hardware problem" - Andrej Karpathi Is it easier to ramp to 1M vehicles a year and cut BOM costs by 80%, OR, install more GPUs and collect more data?
- datadrivenangel 2y agoIf you have to install the GPUs in each car, then you also have a hardware problem.
- delabay 2y agoTesla has been mass producing bespoke AI hardware for four generation. It's not a hardware problem for Tesla. They are a trillion dollar vertically integrated manufacturing powerhouse.
- datadrivenangel 2y agoNot an insurmountable problem for sure. If Level 4 self driving requires more compute in the car, someone has to physically put more compute in the car, which may require redesigning something to do retrofits, etc. A "FSD" car today may not actually have Full Level 4 Self Driving when Tesla finally rolls it out. Thus it's a hardware problem.
- ketzo 2y agoYou pose your comment like the answer is obvious, but I don’t know that it is. If Tesla can solve FSD with only cameras, then yes, their ability to scale is much better than Waymo’s. But that is a stupendously large “if”! I’ve seen the Karpathy quote before, and I think it’s kind of hilarious to compare one company which does X0,000 robotaxi rides per day, to another company which has a robotaxi maybe entering production in two years, and say, “well look, they both have problems!” Bit of a misleading simplification, no? Tesla boosters assume they will crack FSD, it’s just a matter of time. That seems like a big leap to me.
- 2y ago
- fyrn_ 2y agoThere is no proof that tesla can make FSD work with the level of safety they would need for a robitaxi service. Especially with camera only. If they do pull that off, or are able pivot to a fused sensor architecture then I do think their hardware potential will make them a good competitor.
- honeybadger1 2y ago[flagged]
- n144q 2y agoI see, that's exactly the kind of "proof" parent comment is looking for
- honeybadger1 2y ago[flagged]
- slaw 2y agoThere is a driver behind steering wheel all the time. It is not a self driving vehicle.
- kajecounterhack 2y agoWhat's your basis for saying this? Waymo actually serves rides and has a safety record. If you work in robotics you know that eval is everything -- what's Tesla's L4 driving record? It doesn't even have one, so how can you possibly compare? L2 driving record vs L4 driving record are insanely different. You can't fall asleep in an L2 car without risking death. You can fall asleep in an L4 car.
- floxy 2y agoI'm not up to speed on the area of autonomous driving at all. Does anyone know if Tesla is basing its next moves off just what the cameras see at the current moment that gets fed into the model? Or is there also a "mapped" component, where it looks up previously mapped information from other Teslas that have traversed this area before? That is what I understand Waymo and GM Supercruise do at least some of the time. There are only certain pre-mapped routes that Supercruise will work on. https://electrek.co/2024/02/15/gm-nearly-doubles-map-super-cruise-hands-free-driving-routes-north-america/ https://electrek.co/2024/02/15/gm-nearly-doubles-map-super-c...
- thr3000 2y ago[flagged]
- sidibe 2y agoOh ye of little faith, why wait for cybercab when the model 3 was driving NY to LA driveway to driveway in 2018. Waymo died years ago
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- BXlnt2EachOther 2y agopossible context... summoning from NY to LA around January 2018 was a real promise by Musk. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 edit: removed talk of downvotes, just providing the tweet.
- kajecounterhack 2y agothanks for the context, shitposting is hard to detect!
- rvnx 2y agoIt was circa the same period that humans were supposed to be back on the moon (now delayed to end of 2027) :’(
- jitl 2y agoWhat is this based on? Some made up target numbers? Tesla isn’t going any of this stuff yet so they have no idea what it really costs.
- bumbum69 2y ago[flagged]
- madeofpalk 2y agoVery possible, but first you've got to ship.
- 01100011 2y agoAm I living in a bubble or is much of the excitement behind autonomous cabs just hype? Like, sure, it will be popular, but the way some folks(and not just Tesla zealots) talk about it, it will be 25% of global GDP. Beyond, idk, saving my relatives the task of driving me to the airport, I don't see my family using an autonomous taxi at all. I think I'm like many Americans in that I like my personal vehicle because it's mine. I'm comfy in it, it's filled with only my stank, and I have tailored it to my liking.
- standardUser 2y agoif you understand why Uber, Lyft and taxis are such a big industry than you understand why driverless rides will be such a big industry. It's the same industry. But driverless requires a fraction of the labor cost, hence the potential for cheaper rides that will only grow the industry even larger. And I don't have to tip a robot.